For the second year in a row, the Brewers exchanged salary figures with William Contreras, rather than agreeing to a new contract ahead of baseball’s filing deadline for arbitration-eligible players. It’s been unsurprising both times. Contreras is the closest of Milwaukee’s position players to a true star, which means he’s looked to push the limits of how much money he can earn in a system based on precedent.

As of this writing, the two camps are reportedly likely to go to a hearing to determine Contreras’s 2026 salary. Because a team must argue against the player to win its case, there is always a risk of souring the relationship between the two.

The Brewers and Contreras avoided that fate last year by agreeing to a one-year deal with a club option for 2026 at the end of January. Like most teams, the Brewers maintain an informal policy that proscribes agreeing to one-year deals after exchanging figures, so the club option was an escape hatch that allowed both sides to dodge the hearing but Milwaukee to claim that they had adhered to their policy. The tradeoff was that Contreras’s 2025 salary was higher than the precedent for first-year arbitration catchers of his caliber, but depending on how well he played, the club could either exercise or decline the option to keep him from setting a new baseline the following year.

While the sides could again reach a similar arrangement, there was greater incentive then for the Brewers to maintain a positive relationship with their starting catcher. It may be different this time, as history suggests that Contreras is nearing his final chapter in Milwaukee.

Signing Contreras to a market-value extension would be an unusually risky investment for the club, which would be better off acquiring or developing another catcher entering his prime. In that case, they should entertain trading him next winter, before he hits free agency. A hearing would strain the relationship for one season, with little impact on his future with the team.

Furthermore, of the two parties, the Brewers appear better positioned to win a potential hearing. Contreras filed at $9.9 million, which would set a new record for a catcher in his second year of arbitration, while the Brewers filed at $8.55 million, the current record set by Will Smith in 2024. (As a reminder, it doesn’t matter that even $9.9 million would be a bargain for Contreras, whose free-agent value in 2025 was estimated at $29.2 million by FanGraphs. Arbitration is an entirely different system of player compensation in which salary increases are determined based on past raises given to similar players.)

The burden will be on Contreras’s camp to persuade a panel of arbitrators that he has been more valuable than Smith was at the same point in his career. Statistically, it’s not a particularly convincing case. Smith was a slightly better hitter, and Contreras’s edge in games played is mainly due to Smith’s second season being the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.

Player

Team Games

Player Games

HR

OPS

wRC+

fWAR

Contreras (2020-2025)

870

599

85

.805

123

16.9

Smith (2019-2023)

708

484

91

.840

128

15.7

On the surface, the Brewers and Contreras are in the same situation as last winter: he wants to raise the bar for catcher salaries, the Brewers would rather maintain the status quo, and the right contract can satisfy both sides. The context is different this time, though. Everyone involved should prepare for a more contentious process—and yes, that’s likely to be the first in a series of events blazing his trail out of town.