Sport: MLB

It’s all relative, right? Ultimately, all we ask for in fantasy baseball drafts is for players not to be a bust. While some busts hurt more than others, they qualify just the same.

In simplistic terms, at a minimum, we want every draft pick to return value commensurate with their draft spot. Obviously, we want them to exceed that price, but let’s not be greedy.

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So, for our purposes, anyone who I expect not to perform up to their draft slot is considered a bust. As we prepare for the 2026 fantasy baseball season, I take a look at three potential first base busts.

2026 First Base Busts
Ben Rice, New York Yankees

I’ll admit, maybe I’m not playing 100% fair here. I wouldn’t qualify it as cheating, but it’s important to put this into context.

Ben Rice is being drafted where he is based on his positional eligibility. When it comes to catchers, Rice projects to be one of the best in the league. Catcher is also a position where more risk is inherently baked in than anywhere else across the offensive spectrum. But there’s a solid amount of risk here if you plan to utilize Rice as a first baseman.

As just a first baseman, Rice slides down the rankings. That came after he emerged onto the scene last year and forced his way into the New York Yankees’ lineup. For as long as Giancarlo Stanton is healthy, the DH spot is spoken for, but at this point, first base belongs to Rice following the departure of Paul Goldschmidt.

In 138 games last season, 530 plate appearances, Rice hit .255 with 26 home runs, 65 RBI, and 74 runs scored. The Yankees were selective with Rice’s playing time as he only had 119 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers. Rice struggled when facing southpaws, as he only hit .208, but did have seven home runs and 18 RBI.

Entering the 2026 season, the Yankees’ intention is to play Rice more against left-handers. Whether that actually happens will depend on the results. From a power perspective, Rice did just fine, but the batting average is a concern.

If we want to take the opposite approach, Rice did have a .289 xBA last season with a 15.4% barrel rate. The problem, though, is that we are already paying for peak value and production on draft day. From a first base perspective, Rice also lags behind his peers when it comes to RBI.

Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland Guardians

Here we go. It’s time for the “best shape of their lives” excitement and news. In the case of Kyle Manzardo, that means the addition of 14 pounds of muscle. This, along with Manzardo’s already strong power profile, is sure to generate optimism. But is it misguided?

When Manzardo makes contact, good things happen. The problem, though, is that he struck out 25.4% of the time while hitting just .234 with an xBA of .225. Making contact was a struggle for Manzardo, and it’s not an issue isolated to last season, as it’s been a common thread throughout his career.

While it’s already priced into his draft cost and production, splits are an issue here. The Guardians clearly didn’t trust Manzardo against left-handers, as he had just 95 plate appearances against them last season. It’s not like he earned more as the first baseman hit just .186. He did have five home runs, but it’s clear he’s bound to be a platoon option.

The concern here is that the strikeouts and struggles against left-handed pitching become too overwhelming.

Luis Arraez, Free Agent

As far as first basemen go, power and run production are generally the redeeming qualities. Those are not skills that Luis Arraez possesses.

Similar to Rice, drafting Arraez as a first baseman is a real problem when it comes to roster construction. The problem is that he only played 14 games at second base last season, so that truly changes things from an eligibility standpoint. And from a fantasy value perspective, a downgrade is in a order. It also doesn’t help the fact that, as of mid-January, Arraez is still unsigned. That doesn’t bode well for his playing time outlook heading into 2026.

Yes, drafting Arraez and his .292 batting average from last season does help smooth things out. The problem, though, is that in 675 plate appearances last season, all he managed was eight home runs, 61 RBI, and 66 runs scored. That will leave you deficient across the board, and with a career high of 11 stolen bases last year, lacking in four of the five categories.

Rostering Arraez truly adds another challenge layer to building your roster.

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