The Boston Red Sox ended their run as the only team without a dollar spent in free agency Wednesday, and did so with a big, long-term, lucrative bang.
According to several reports, the Red Sox are signing left-handed starter Ranger Suárez to a five-year, $130 million contract. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the contract does not include deferrals or opt-outs.
It’s a significant signing for the Red Sox, who found out over the weekend that top free-agent target Alex Bregman had chosen the Chicago Cubs. Suárez, 30, is the first free agent Craig Breslow has signed to a deal longer than three years (Bregman’s) since the Red Sox named him chief baseball officer in November ’23.
The underrated Suárez is much more than a consolation prize or hasty pivot, though. He has quietly been one of the best and most consistent arms in the majors over the last several seasons, especially since becoming a full-time starter midway through ’21. In eight major league seasons, all with the Philadelphia Phillies, he owns a career 3.38 ERA, 705 strikeouts, and 240 walks over 187 games and 762 innings.
When the Phillies moved him into their rotation in August ’21, Suárez immediately proved himself essential. He’s pitched to a 3.39 ERA over 116 starts since, including a pair of complete-game shutouts.
He also brings postseason experience and much-needed mettle to a fairly inexperienced Red Sox roster. The Phillies have reached the playoffs four years running, with Suárez posting a 1.48 ERA over 11 postseason games (eight starts) in that span.
Suárez pitched to a 3.20 ERA over 26 starts totaling a career-high 157.1 innings last season. He ranked in the 84th MLB percentile or better in several key metrics, including Pitching Run Value, expected ERA (xERA), and walk rate (BB%). His fastball has one of the slowest velocities in the big leagues – seventh MLB percentile last season – but he is one of the best in the game at limiting hard contact (95th percentile in average exit velocity and 98th percentile in hard-hit rate). According to MLB’s Sarah Langs, Suárez’s 31.1% hard-hit rate was the best mark for any pitcher who faced a minimum of 250 batted balls.
The Red Sox, who last year led the majors with 116 errors, will need a lockdown infield defense behind Suárez to maximize his abilities. They are also still seeking a power bat, particularly a right-hander to balance their lefty-heavy lineup. With Suárez and fellow southpaw starter Garrett Crochet signed for five and six years, respectively, the Red Sox can bolster their position-player group by trading from their young pitching core. Lefty top prospects Payton Tolle and Connelly Early are likely candidates.
The $26 million average annual value of Suárez’s contract moves Boston’s Competitive Balance Threshold payroll to a projected $268.9 million, sixth in the majors. According to SoxProspects.com’s partner, Red Sox Payroll, the Red Sox are now $24.90 million over the first threshold and $4.90 million over the second. If it stands, it will be their highest CBT payroll in franchise history.