It’s no particular secret that the Cardinals have been trying to get out from under the Nolan Arenado contract for some time. The origins of this date back all the way to February 2019, when he signed an eight-year, $260 million deal while still a member of the Rockies. At the time, it was celebrated in Denver as “a win for fans”. But the honeymoon proved painfully brief. Less than two years later, with six seasons remaining on the contract, the face of the franchise demanded a trade. He was dealt to St. Louis for a group of prospects who never really worked out (Austin Gomber’s 3.0 bWAR being the best), Colorado also sending $51 million in future payments.
Initially, Arenado played very well for the Cardinals. In particular, 2022 saw him finish third in National League MVP voting, as he batted .293 with thirty home-runs. His 7.9 bWAR was actually more than his MVP teammate that year, some guy called Gaul Poldschmidt or something. But over the past three seasons, Arenado has been worth a total of just six bWAR, while earning $102 million ($26m paid by the Rockies). St. Louis put Nolan on the market last winter, and almost dealt him to the Astros, before Arenado used his no-trade clause to veto the move. However, he apparently agreed to the Arizona deal.
There is still $42 million remaining on the contract, before Arenado becomes a free-agent at the end of the 2027 season (he’ll be 36 at that point). However, the vast bulk of that is being paid by other parties, either the Cardinals or the Rockies. Nick Piecoro says the Diamondbacks will be paying only $5 million this year, and $6 million next, so barely one-quarter of the cost remaining. This seems like a much better deal than most of what we’ve seen on the free-agent market this winter. Steamer has Nolan Arenado projected for 1.9 fWAR in 2026. But that’s not much below some of the considerably more expensive 3B signings this winter are expected to produce:
Jorge Polanco: two years, $40 million, 2.1 fWARMunetaka Murakami, two years, $34 million, 2.3 fWARKazuma Okamoto, four years, $60 million, 2.7 fWAR
It’s much more in line with the Miguel Rojas signing: he got $5.5 million from the Dodgers for this year. His projection is only 0.5 fWAR. though he does have more position flexibility than Arenado. There’s no doubt Nolan is not the force he used to be. But I feel more comfortable with his experience at the hot corner, than someone like Blaze Alexander, who has only 120 starts at third in his professional career. This does suggest we may now see Alexander moved to left-field, although it may be short-lived. For Lourdes Gurriel may be back sooner than expected, reportedly already running the bases at 95% capacity.
This also should save us from have to use Jordan Lawlar, and his mere 43 starts at third, there on a regular basis. It is going to be interesting to see what happens with him. There were rumbling about him playing center this winter, but I’m not immediately able to see what came of that. Of course, next season will still only be his age 23 campaign, so there’s no particular rush to figure things out. Certainly, if the long-term intention is to put him at third, then there’s going to be few better to learn the position from over the next couple of years, than a ten-time Gold Glover like Arenado.
I should at least acknowledge the prospect going to St. Louis in exchange for Arenado. Jack Martinez was an 8th-round pick by the D-backs. He is actually a “local” product, having come out of ASU – quotes used since he transferred in for his senior year from Louisiana-Lafayette. Interestingly, he hasn’t yet appeared in the minors since being drafted: I’ve not been immediately able to find out why. Obviously, it’ll be years before we know if he’ll amount to anything, but the odds are, probably not. For what it’s worth, all thirty players selected in the 8th round of a randomly selected draft from ten years earlier, in 2015, have combined to be worth 2.3 bWAR to date, with Chris Paddack the best.
This afternoon, Mike Hazen talked to the media regarding the deal. Here’s a transcript of the conversation, lightly edited for clarity.
He really solidifies our defense on the infield. He’s going to have a direct impact on our pitching in a significant way. I think it builds out the depth around our team, allowing some of the younger guys to be versatile, have
match-ups selected for them, etc. We’ve always liked the way he’s played the game. The impact he can have when he’s not playing inside the walls is important to us. I think he’s a good fit from that standpoint too. I know how much winning means to him – it’s important to him and it’s important to us.
What does a veteran guy, third base, that’s been around, bring to that position on the field, but also leadership inside the clubhouse?
I don’t know that it’s position specific. I see the parallel with Longoria for sure. But I think we have a young team. You know, our young players are our superstar players. I think it’s great. I think it’s a good position to be in in this league. But I think there’s also a need and a balance and a desire, to have players that have been through it for a long time from a preparation standpoint, from going through the ups and downs of the season. I think that adds to clubs quite a bit. And outside of the young players that are superstars and the roster, we have a bunch of young players that are getting ready to break onto or have already broken onto the roster. I think it helps those guys tremendously as well, looking for guys in that younger tier that have kind of been up down the last couple of years, including some current minor leaguers that will be coming on in the next few years. I think these veteran guys that set by example and the way he plays the game and the way he prepares to play the game and win, is critically important for the long-term future of our organization.
Talk about this being a guy that’s obviously a proven product and been around for a long time, but he wanted to be here. Well, what does that mean to you, and what does that say about the culture that you guys have established here?
Yeah, we appreciate that for sure. I don’t really know any of the ins and outs of the motivations. We didn’t really dig into any of those things necessarily. We talked more about what the fit is here, how I see the fit on the team, what our team is like, what the organization is like. I told him that we are committed to doing everything we can to maximize his time on the roster – I said the same thing to Merrill Kelly. I very much value the veteran players that are on this roster, the time they have in the game. I know with specific guys as they’re getting a little older, the priority shifts in a lot of ways – not that it always hasn’t been – but there’s a huge emphasis on wanting to be on a winner, and we’re committed to that as well. So we talked a little bit about that. I explained, I know the roster is in a little bit of flux now. We have four guys on the IL, key pieces to our team, that will be moving back onto the roster during the season. I think that what the team looks like on opening day, is probably not what it’s going to look like as we move through the year. But I believe that the quality of those players that are on the shelf right now, as they move back onto the team, I can see the team getting stronger and stronger.
Just how long have you been in discussions for Arenado and what ultimately led trading Jack Martinez in the deal for him?
I’ll let St. Louis talk about what they acquired. As far as the back and forth, we had had some initial conversations, as we do with most teams about a lot of different players at the beginning. I think as we wound down the Ketel situation, one of the things I talked about was, okay, how were we going to build around him with this in mind that. Solidifying some of the corner to the infield was going to be a priority for us given that I had traded Suarez and Naylor in the middle of the year last year.
Could you evaluate a little bit where you see Nolan Arenado as an offensive player at the stage of his career?
Last year I’m sure didn’t go as great as well as he wanted to. We definitely see the ability to bounce back here. We’re excited about that. We know how much work he’s going to put into that. I think as guys get older in this league and the league evolves, and they need to continue to evolve. I know he’s going to put in every amount of work and energy into doing that. We probably have a little better ballpark to hit in, and so we look for him to be a solid offensive contributor for us in our lineup. With the firepower we have at the top of our line-up, we’re not we’re not looking for him to carry the offense. We don’t need him to carry the offense: we need him to solidify and stabilize our defense. That’s a huge component to this. I think it’s a huge value to what he brings to the table, and you know what he’s going to do from a leadership standpoint I’m excited about.
Do you see both or either of Blaze Alexander or Jordan Lawlar as outfield options, and then do you perhaps see Ketel getting the opportunity to get off his feet and DH a little bit more?
First answer is: yes. Second answer: is I don’t know. I think there’ll be opportunity for guys to get off their feet – all of them. I mean, we talk about that a lot. Sometimes you’re not afforded those opportunities to keep them fresh during the course of the year. I think we’re going to continue to try to maximize the time that these guys are able to stay on their feet defensively. We’ll hopefully have some flexibility and wiggle room to get them off their feet to keep them fresh. So, I mean, you saw Ketel DH in the games in the manner in which he did last year. I’m sure it’s going to be somewhat similar to that, as we continue to move forward, to make sure he’s at his best when he’s on the field.
But for the other guys too as well. I see the group of younger players having the ability to impact this team in a number of different ways, either in the infield or the outfield. There’s going to be plenty of at-bats to go around in trying to round out where the lineup’s going to be. I would say, much like I always have, there’s a healthy amount of competition that’s going to exist and performance and earning it is going to matter. I think to the beginning part of some of their careers, things have gone pretty well and I think we’re excited about what some of those guys can do. But, you know, at this stage of their career, they need to continue to go out there and earn the time that they’re going to get, establish themselves in a position, and nothing’s going to be handed to anybody.
How do you see adding Nolan to the mix, changing or elevating the competition in spring training with some of the young guys?
Look, there’s now another established major league player on the roster who’s going to play. And so that’s going to have some impact on what’s available. My contention is, the way you want to look at it is, there’s still plenty of opportunity available. It doesn’t seem like Lourdes is going to be ready to break at the beginning of the year. So there’s going to be opportunity out there as well. I’m not 100% sure that we’re going to continue to add. We’re going to continue to look at the offense and the lineup in ways – whether maybe first base, DH. But I’m not 100% certain that we’re going to land down on any of those spots. That’s going to create opportunity for at-bats in certain places. We’ll see where we’re trying to build out as much competition as I can early in the year, and see where these guys take it. But there’s going to be opportunities
Does Arenado still see himself as an everyday third baseman in the field?
Yeah, I think we see it that way. We didn’t specifically have that conversation. But we talked a little bit about how we want to do what’s right by him, and maximize his performance and availability as we go through a full season. You know, we kind of talked about we’ll tackle that when we kind of get in person a little bit more. I’m sure we’ll tackle anything and everything as it relates to the team. I look forward to spending a little more time with him and walking through sort of how the team is constructed and what it looks like, and the players are, and how we can get the most out of it.
Do you see this in any way as a pivot? Do you feel if you had been able to land or, you know, spend a decent amount of money on the bullpen, you wouldn’t have gone this direction?
No, I think we’re trying to fill a number of different holes that we got left with at the end of last season. We talked about this, going into it with as many free agents as we did, that we were going to have to put the team back together, after trading away a starting pitcher and the free agents. We lost six guys from last year’s Opening Day, plus the injured guys. Trying to put all that back together again is something that we’re continuing to work on and looking to do. I said this: I don’t think we’re anywhere close to one player away from being, you know, the best team we can possibly be. We need to continue to shore up multiple areas of our team, that includes the bullpen and the position player group. We’ll see what happens between now and opening day.
Can you tell us about Jonathan Loáisiga: what your plans are for him, what you liked about him?
I think he’s got great stuff. We’ve always liked him from afar. He’s going to go into the mix and there’s going to be opportunity in our pen. Coming into spring training, I think we should be a very attractive place for players to come in and compete. We have a number of good young arms, but there is still a couple spots in our pen that are not established. We’re hopeful to bring in guys that could impact that in a real tangible way. I don’t know exactly what form or fashion that’s going to come in, but I would imagine that we’re going to bring in a number of guys that are going to compete for bullpen spots, coming into spring training. We obviously have some spots in the bullpen that should be solidified. I think there’s going to be some spots in the bullpen that guys are going to be able to come in here, and make the team. Yes, we have done a good job. Our pro guys, our scouts, our front office guys have done a good job of identifying candidates come in here. And last year I thought they did a really good job of finding multiple bullpen guys that had really good seasons for us.