Credit: AP Photo
In the hunt for cost-efficient starting pitching, the Padres are listed as a potential suitor for Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta. With just a year of control, the Brewers are actively shopping the ace and looking to receive a major package in return.
The San Diego Padres’ offseason has reached a crossroad, with a need for depth both in the rotation and on the right side of the infield. Already in mid-January, free agency has grown thin, seemingly with only expensive or dirt-cheap options on the table.
The starting pitching market is arguably the richest of the bunch currently, but it still presents an issue. Starting pitching value is currently through the roof, and it’s tough to look at even a fifth starter without having to dish out an eight-figure deal.
To combat this, the Padres have been just as active on the trade front as well. San Diego reportedly took a look at a deal for Cincinnati’s ace Hunter Greene in late December. Now, the focus shifts to a more feasible name, although no less talented than Greene.
The rumor
On Tuesday, Héctor Gómez of the Z101 Digital reported that the Padres were among four teams pushing for Freddy Peralta. Gómez listed the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox as the other three contenders. All four teams have expressed a desire to bring in starting pitching during this offseason.
Quickly afterwards, Gómez added a report that the Padres “emerged” as a strong contender for Peralta. That would make sense, as the Padres’ necessity for cost-effectiveness is much more critical than the other contenders.
Peralta, who will earn just $8 million in 2026, would satisfy the Padres’ need at SP at a great price. It would be logical for AJ Preller to push hard for Peralta, even if it means dealing some of his better prospects.
The #Padres have emerged as a strong contender for a trade with the #Brewers to acquire star RHP Freddy Peralta. https://t.co/u0sl1KBFf6
— Héctor Gómez (@hgomez27) January 14, 2026
His profile
Peralta is 29 years old and has pitched for eight seasons in the MLB. He’s made two All-Star appearances, in 2021 and more recently in 2025. He sports a career 3.59 ERA, with a record of 70-42.
From 2022-2024, Peralta pitched more to the standard of a second starter, hovering in the mid-3 ERA range. He still provided great length when healthy, but didn’t yet qualify for “ace status.”
2025 flipped that narrative in a big way. Peralta held down a 2.70 ERA over 176.2 innings, striking out 204 batters on the season. He finished in the 97th percentile in Statcast’s Pitching Run Value, proving that his aggregate production was simply elite.
Peralta gets most of his outs via the strikeout or fly ball. He gets down the mound really well, especially for someone with his smaller frame. Peralta is aggressive on the mound and isn’t afraid to bury a hitter with repeated up-and-inside fastballs.
His arsenal
On the surface, Peralta doesn’t stick out as a guy with nasty stuff. He throws a fastball, curveball, changeup, and mixes in a slider primarily for righties.
Peralta is extremely fastball-reliant, as he threw his four-seamer 53% of the time in 2025. In his rookie year, he threw it a mind-boggling 78% of the time, although he heavily revitalized his arsenal in more recent years.
His fastball sits in the 93-95 MPH range, but he can rear back for 97-98 when he really needs it. The offering has some riding action, but it really comes down to location, and he excels in that department. He’s one of the best at spotting the heater on the outer half of the zone, especially against lefties.
Peralta complements the heat with a handy changeup that he’s been steadily throwing more and more often. The pitch is an excellent change-of-pace, often catching hitters trying to pull the fastball. As mentioned earlier, he’s more of a flyball pitcher due to the high fastball usage. However, getting groundballs here and there from his changeup is a key piece to his success.
Peralta also mixes in a slower curveball and slider that create a tricky gap in velocity. He got whiffs on over half of his sliders in 2025 and allowed just a .157 batting average against it. He’s incredibly timely when mixing in the two breaking balls, and really creates a confusing package for hitters to deal with.
I need Freddy Peralta throwing baseballs for this team. pic.twitter.com/i8p3R0pNCK
— Everything Yankees (@eyyankees) January 12, 2026
Possible trade scenarios
So, how could the Padres actually swing a deal for the right-hander? They would only have one year of control over Peralta on his low salary, which should lower the asking price.
With Freddy Peralta having one final season under team control, the precedent for comparison is almost too obvious: Corbin Burnes. The former Brewers ace was traded to Baltimore two offseasons ago for Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and a compensatory draft pick. At the time, Ortiz was ranked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 63 overall prospect, which has aged… questionably. Hall was a former top prospect, ranking as high as No. 7 in Baltimore’s system before the trade. Burnes was also set to make $15.6 million in 2024, which may have been a factor in the perceived trade value. So, for the sake of thought exercise, let’s compare Burnes and Peralta’s salaries in the final season of team control as well as their production over the past three seasons.
Burnes ($15.637 million) – 93 GS, 562.2 IP, 2.94 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 0.993 WHIP, 30.3% K, 6.7% BB, 46.4% GB%
Peralta ($8 million) – 95 GS, 516 IP, 3.40 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 1.136 WHIP, 28.9% K, 8.8% BB, 38.3% GB%
If Burnes was able to net the Brewers a so-so top 100 prospect, a former top 10 prospect in the Baltimore system, and a compensatory round draft pick, will they get as much value for Peralta? Peralta is not as dominant as Burnes, and there is some concern for regression. Peralta’s ERA estimators were higher than his 2.70 ERA in 2025, and his performance benefited from a .243 BABIP. With different projection models penning him for an ERA between 3.50 and 3.91 (and FIPs in the 3.90 to 4.00 range), the Padres would be making a trade for another mid-rotation arm instead of the game-changing ace that the Brewers may value him as.
With that said, we have two realistic packages that could get the job done. One of the, and the other is courtesy of EVT staff writer Diego Garcia.
Mock Trade #1 (Willy)
To San Diego: RHP Freddy Peralta
To Milwaukee: LHP Kash Mayfield (EVT Padres No. 3 Prospect), LHP Kyle Hart, RHP Carlos Alvarez
In this scenario, the Padres land Peralta by parting ways with one of their most promising pitching prospects, Kash Mayfield. Mayfield missed a ton of bats in his first season of affiliated ball at Low-A, striking out 88 batters in 60.2 innings. He boasts one of the better changeups in the minor leagues, with smooth arm-side fading action. His fastball sat in the mid-90s range with a great spin rate. His advanced poise and arsenal made him stand out amongst his peers, as he sported a 2.97 ERA over 19 starts on the season. Mayfield is certainly not a piece the Padres want to part with; however, his success has been slightly overshadowed by the promise of fellow southpaw Kruz Schoolcraft. Under that lens, Mayfield feels like the next big name prospect off the board of the A.J. Preller era trades.
Kash Mayfield, @Padres‘ 2024 first-rounder, was straight $$ for @Storm_Baseball
3 IP
0 H
0 R
0 BB
6 K ? pic.twitter.com/1hYx3Efpfe
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) June 11, 2025
The Brewers expressed a desire to receive an MLB-ready pitcher in the return package earlier this offseason. The Padres’ Kyle Hart certainly fits that bill. The former KBO Choi Dong-won Award (Korea’s Cy Young award) winner is 33 years old, but is still finding an identity in the major leagues. Hart struggled as a starter in the early going, but then reverted to a bullpen role later in the year and updated his profile. He added velocity and a ton of horizontal break on his sweeper after the move, and performed better than the numbers indicated. He has potential to be an effective swingman, but he also risks getting hit around too much.
The final piece would be the cherry on top of the Brewers impressive crop of international prospects. Carlos Alvarez, an 18-year-old lefty from their 2025 international signing class, is as raw as they come. He’s only been a primary pitcher for about two years, but he has a very repeatable delivery, especially for such a young hurler. He pounds the zone and got the majority of his outs on the ground during his time in the DSL. At 6′ 4, Alvarez has a chance to pan out as a physical starter due to his smooth delivery and ability to produce even when he doesn’t miss bats.
Mock Trade #2 (Diego)
To San Diego – RHP Freddy Peralta
To Milwaukee – LHP Jagger Haynes, RHP Victor Lizarraga, C Lamar King Jr
Headlining the trade going to Milwaukee is left-hander Jagger Haynes, who MLB Pipeline ranks at No. 10 in the Padres’ system. Haynes showed improvement at Double-A this past season, pitching to a 4.11 ERA (5.01 FIP) in 26 games (25 starts) at Double-A. Haynes was drafted in 2020 but did not debut until 2023 due to injuries, and appears to have left the injury bug behind. In 103 innings, Haynes struck out 22.8% of batters with a slightly elevated 14% walk rate. His profile is similar to that of DL Hall, as Haynes has a plus slider and solid changeup, though his fastball has been rather hittable and could benefit from an adjustment in pitch approach.
Padres No.12 Prospect Jagger Haynes was filthy tonight
6 IP, 2 Hits, 2 ERs, & 5 Ks
In total he generated:
?14 Whiffs
?33% Whiff%
?Struck out No.10 MLB prospect Max Clark 2 times pic.twitter.com/cZDqNPkV26
— Clark Fahrenthold (@CFahrenthold11) August 1, 2024
Right-hander Victor Lizarraga would also be going to Milwaukee in the trade. The former international signee also saw much time at Double-A this season, and pitched to a collective 5.77 ERA (4.89 FIP) in 2025. Lizarraga battled an arm injury and an uptick in walks, but has shown elite extension and an interesting profile as a back-end starter type. Milwaukee does well with maximizing what arms with quirks in their profile can do, and Lizarraga’s 19° arm angle, paired with seven feet of extension on average, could give the Milwaukee pitching lab an arm that is young and could be a part of their staff as soon as 2026.
The last piece of the mock trade would be catcher Lamar King Jr. Another high school draftee by San Diego, King spent most of 2025 at Single-A and posted a 108 wRC+ across 105 games (including a 24-game stretch at High-A). King’s offensive profile is the kind the Brewers like in their catching prospects, and he has yet to fully hit his stride defensively. King slashed .274/.353/.384 this past season with four homers, also stealing 21 bases.
A 17-year-old San Diego native, Willy Warren is a baseball fan at heart who created High Leverage Baseball, a public baseball media account covering around-the-league statistical analysis and breakdowns on X. Willy is set to attend the Cronkite School of Journalism in the fall of 2026 at Arizona State University, where he’ll pursue a major in sports journalism.
Continue Reading