After signing Kyle Tucker, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites to win the World Series. Well, they already were. Does that make the Dodgers the super-favorites or something?
Not exactly, but sort of.
The Dodgers’ continuing ability to collect star players like Pokémon has become a running joke and a source of frustration among fans of other teams. It has also led to some outrageous betting odds on the clear top team on paper.
L.A.’s odds to win the World Series moved from +300 to +225 on BetMGM after the Tucker signing, which is a relatively modest, but still noteworthy shift. It means the Dodgers’ implied odds of winning it all, yet again, went from 25 percent to roughly 30 percent. In a sport with a postseason noted for its randomness, it is jarring to see a team this heavily favored before pitchers and catchers report.
It also puts the Dodgers in even more rarified air in terms of historical favorites. Only two teams since 1985 have had odds this short in the preseason — and those were likely not this short so early in the year. The New York Yankees were at +200 odds in the preseason of 1999, 2001, 2002 and 2003. Of those years, they won the World Series only in 1999. The Atlanta Braves are the other team, and they had +200 odds in 1998 and went on to be upset in the National League Championship Series.
The silliness doesn’t stop there, however. The Dodgers are nearly even money (+130) to win the National League and -650 to win the NL West. No other team currently has minus odds (implying a greater than 50 percent likelihood) of winning its division. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are viewed as near locks.
The Dodgers have had the highest win total in baseball since those odds opened, but now the number is at a scary 103.5 wins, moving up from 99.5 after the Tucker news. The next-highest listed total is the New York Yankees at 93.5, a whopping 10 games back.
Keep in mind that a win total line is viewed as roughly the median outcome for teams. The listed win totals are typically in a relatively narrow band across the league for this reason. Only four teams have listed win totals above 90 (Dodgers, Yankees, Mariners, Phillies) and only three are below 70 (Nationals, White Sox, Rockies).
Teams that have breakout stars or are decimated by injuries will over- or underperform their win totals by solid margins. That means that the Dodgers winning 104 games would be like a C+ performance. They are capable of more if a few things go right. The Dodgers have won at least 104 games four times in the past nine seasons, but did not win the World Series in any of those years.
The final mind-boggling betting stat is that the Dodgers are -10000 to make it to the postseason. This is as close to certainty as you can get, especially at this time of year. Dodgers fans know their team will make the postseason. Ask a White Sox, Rockies or Athletics fan how that concept makes them feel.
As for how the rest of the field lines up behind the Dodgers for a World Series win, the Yankees are next at +1100, followed by the Seattle Mariners at +1200 and the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays at +1300. The Yankees opened at +800 after the Dodgers won their third title in the last six seasons back in November. With the Dodgers getting better, the Yankees have taken a step back. The same goes for the Phillies, who dropped from +1200 to +1300.
The big-spending New York Mets lost out on Tucker, but did reportedly land Bo Bichette on Friday. The Mets opened at +1400 and are now +1500, but are still viewed as contenders.
The Chicago Cubs, who lost Tucker but did make a big move in signing Alex Bregman, moved up a touch from +2200 to +2000. The Cubs are still behind eight other teams in the pecking order.