Pitcher Tatsuya Imai signed a three-year, $54 million contract with the Houston Astros. (Photo by Gene Wang/Getty Images)
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Heading into the off-season, there were three Japanese players being posted by their Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) clubs, and made available to all major league teams. As a reminder, per NPB rules, if a player does not have nine years of professional experience, he can ask to be “posted.” If the club agrees, they will be paid a “posting fee” calculated as follows:
For major league contracts with a total guaranteed value of $25 million or less, 20% of the total guaranteed value of the contract.For major league contracts with a total guaranteed value between $25,000,001 and $50 million, 20% of the first $25 million plus 17.5% of the total guaranteed value exceeding $25 million.For major league contracts with a total guaranteed value of $50,000,001 or more, 20% of the first $25 million plus 17.5% of next $25 million plus 15% of the total guaranteed value exceeding $50 million.
After four US-born pitchers signed above-market deals to come back stateside, the Japanese-born players haven’t fared as well.
Munetaka Murakami
The first of these four players to be posted was Munetaka Murakami by the Yakult Swallows. The third baseman/first baseman hit 56 home runs in 2022, breaking the NPB record for the most homers in as season by a Japanese-born player, which was held by Sadaharu Oh for 58 years. While his power outlook was enticing to teams, his defensive liabilities were a concern. That said, MLB Trade Rumors anticipated he would get an eight-year, $180 million contract. ESPN was not as confident, predicting a five-year, $80 million deal.
With one day to go before his 45-day signing window was set to close, Murakami signed a two-year, $34 million contract with the Chicago White Sox. This allows the infielder to prove his worth and head back into the open market one season after the league and the player’s union have (ostensibly) ratified a new collective bargaining agreement. The player is betting on himself, and the White Sox get a low-risk, high-reward opportunity. Either way you analyze the deal, the Japanese slugger got considerably less guaranteed money than what was anticipated.
Munetaka Murakami will try to match his 56 homer season playing in the big leagues. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesTatsuya Imai
The next domino to fall was pitcher Tatsuya Imai. The highly-regarded righty was thought to have the potential to be a poor-man’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as they have roughly the same build, although Imai doesn’t have the same fastball velocity. Yamamoto famously signed a $325 million contract with the Dodgers at the end of 2023. For Imai, MLB Trade Rumors guessed at a six-year, $150 million deal, while ESPN thought six years and $135 million was in play. Ben Clemens of Fangraphs speculated that he might get $100 million over five years, but his site acknowledged that their crowdsource estimate was four years, $64 million. In the end, everyone guessed too high. The righty ultimately signed for three years and $54 million with the Houston Astros.
The Scott Boras-negotiated contract has a three million dollar bonus if he throws 100 innings in 2026, and includes opt-outs after each of the first two years, providing Imai with flexibility if he proves himself next season. However, with a potential lockout coming, next season’s free agency may be truncated (or non-existent), meaning there is a good chance that Imai will stick in Houston for 2027 at either $18 or $21 million (depending on the number of innings pitched).
According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, other teams offered Imai longer term deals with lower annual average values, but he chose to bet on himself. But, again, any way you view the deal, he received tens of millions less guaranteed dollars than Imai and Boras (who could not have been more high on his prospects when we discussed the same during the World Series) imagined.
Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma Okamoto plays the same defensive positions as Murakami, but is considerably better with the glove, as he has won two NPB Gold Gloves at third base and one at first. He doesn’t have Murakami’s prodigious power, but he still hit 25 or more homers in six straight seasons, and has a .277/.361/.521 slash line in eleven NPB seasons.
Heading into the off-season, the pundits didn’t think his numbers would translate as well in MLB, and predicted four years/$72 million (Fangraphs), four years/$64 million (MLB Trade Rumors), three years/$36 million (ESPN). So, when Okamoto eventually got four years, $60 million from the Toronto Blue Jays, he was the player most closely aligned with the pre-off-season predictions.
Okamoto is another player who signed one day prior to the expiration of his posting window, but it seems that Boras played this one right to expectations. The deal with infielder probably means that the Blue Jays are out of the running to sign Alex Bregman (another Boras client), but they could still re-sign free agent shortstop/second baseman Bo Bichettte.
Kazuma Okamoto will now be manning third base for the American League champion Toronto Blue Jays. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
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None of these signings portends anything for future Japanese-posted players, especially if an international draft is included as part of the next CBA. But for this off-season at least, two of these players got much less than they (and the prognosticators) had hoped.