Sport: MLB

Prospect fatigue is real, especially when a pitcher arrives with high expectations but leaves fantasy managers staring at an ugly ERA and a pile of regret. But development isn’t linear, and many so-called “failed” arms show clear signs of growth beneath the surface. By focusing on command gains, pitch quality, and role stability, post-hype pitchers can turn from cautionary tales into rotation anchors at a fraction of the cost.

In this article, we are going to look at three former first round picks who are being drafted late, reducing the risk, and provide a ton of upside. Let’s get started.

Your first step… Well, okay, your second step, right after reading this article, is to head over and devour our updated Top 500 Dynasty Baseball Rankings for 2026.

What?! Your fantasy baseball league wasn’t hosted on Fantrax last season? Preposterous! Check out what the Fantrax MLB Commissioner has to offer, and we think you’ll be singing a different tune for the 2026 MLB season.

2026 Fantasy Baseball: Post Hype Starting Pitchers
Shane Baz – Baltimore Orioles

It has been a long road for Baz who was drafted 12th overall way back in 2017. The next season, he became a major piece in the Chris Archer trade which took him to Tampa Bay. He worked his way through the Rays system all the way up to their #1 prospect for 2022 following a dazzling three-appearance stint in the majors in 2021.

He underwent Tommy John Surgery in 2022, which derailed his jump to the majors as he missed the entire 2023 season. He worked his way back in 2024 and split time between AAA and the majors before breaking through in 2025 where he completed a full season(31 starts) at the top level. While the ERA(4.87) was ugly, he had an xFIP(3.88) that was a run lower and he also flashed upside with a 25% K rate and 107 Stuff+.

That was enough for the Orioles to make a splash and trade for Baz this offseason. It is easy to see how much value they put in him as they traded three of their top 11 prospects, plus a fourth prospect and the 33rd overall pick in 2026. Baz is currently projected to be slotted into the three spot in the O’s rotation and if he continues to develop and refine his command, he could be a draft steal. He is currently going off the board as SP57 and 198th overall.

Jack Leiter – Texas Rangers

Leiter was drafted second overall by the Rangers in 2021. He jumped straight to the AA level and despite struggling with command, made the move to AAA by the end of the 2023 season. He made huge strides in AAA in 2024 starting with the control as he shaved off over a walk per nine which led to a 3.51 ERA over 16 starts. He also flashed more upside, striking out just over 33% of hitters.

While he made the jump to the majors in 2024, he not only struggled to a 8.83 ERA over nine appearances(six starts), he spent some time on the IL with blisters. While the numbers were average-at-best in 2025 (3.86 ERA, 22% K rate, 3.98 BB/9), he played a full season and ended up with 314 fantasy points, which was 54th among starting pitchers. It was also positive to see his four top pitches ranking greater than 100 when looking at Stuff+, including a fastball that averages 97 mph(88th percentile in velo) and had a 114 Stuff+.

There is a still a ton of risk but with that comes a ton of upside as well. He is projected to be in the middle of the Rangers rotation and, with an ADP around 250, is one of my top late-round targets this season.

Casey Mize – Detroit Tigers

At the time of the 2018 MLB Draft, Casey Mize felt like a “can’t miss” prospect. His career got off to a solid start as he breezed through rookie ball, A ball, and AA ball over his first two professional seasons. He was called up in August 2020 and struggled in his first taste of the majors with a 6.99 ERA/5.37 xFIP. He then pitched a whole season in 2021 and looked good with a 3.71 ERA/4.37 xFIP. Unfortunately, his development took a left turn as the 2022 and 2023 seasons were lost to Tommy John surgery.

He returned to the mound in 2024, and while the numbers weren’t great (4.49 ERA, 17% K rate) he made it through unscathed. Then in 2025, he took a big step forward posting a 3.87 ERA/3.97 xFIP and14 wins for the Tigers. He also displayed excellent command with a 2.17 BB/9, and while he isn’t likely to develop into a high K rate pitcher, he can provide stability in multiple categories, which makes him a great late-round target in all formats.

Fantrax is one of the fastest-growing fantasy sites in the fantasy sports industry, and we’re not stopping anytime soon. We are the most customizable, easy-to-use, and feature-rich platform in the industry, offering the greatest fantasy experience for your dynasty, keeper, redraft, and best ball leagues. Fantasy sports doesn’t sleep, and neither does Fantrax, with seasons running 365 days a year. Take your fantasy leagues to the next level now at Fantrax.com!