It’s early, but Garion Thorne picks out three of his favorite team win totals for the 2026 MLB regular season on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Don’t look now, but baseball season is just around the corner. I know that might sound crazy to a large portion of North America — you know, the parts that are currently getting bombarded with snow — but some teams have pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training as early as February 10. That’s only three weeks away!
As such, MLB win totals are live on the DraftKings Sportsbook for all 30 teams, and this might just be the best time to find some value. Let’s sort through the lines and break down a few of my first impression favorites.
Baltimore Orioles
I swear I won’t lean solely on projections for every single one of these picks, but if you’re looking for the outlier in FanGraphs’ take on the upcoming 2026 campaign — it’s the Orioles. Despite finishing last season 75-87 and 19 games back in the division, Baltimore’s current roster is projected to accumulate 43.1 fWAR in 2026, which is the ninth-highest mark in all of baseball. Now where have I seen this narrative before? Underperforming AL East team that a majority of the models love, that bounces back in a big way? Are the Orioles just this year’s Blue Jays?
It’s honestly not that hard to envision. Baltimore won 101 games in 2023 and then followed that up with 91 victories in 2024. However, 2025 turned into a nightmare, as the roster was decimated by injuries early in the season. Still, heading into 2026, this is a 26-man group that features a lot of familiar names. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser all bridge the gap from the Orioles’ last postseason trip, while yet another youthful generation of MLB-ready positional talent is headlined by former No. 1 overall pick Jackson Holliday, Dylan Beavers and Samuel Basallo — any one of whom could break out for a massive statistical season. On top of all that, Baltimore owner David Rubenstein finally started to flash some of the cash he promised to use in his opening press conference, signing free agent Pete Alonso and trading for the final year of Taylor Ward’s arbitration. That’s a combined 74 home runs injected into a batting order that was already teeming with upside.
Let’s keep Rubenstein and his money in mind going forward. I happen to think that the Orioles aren’t done spending this winter. If this squad does have a weakness, it’s the pitching staff. All-Star closer Felix Bautista (shoulder) will likely miss the entirety of 2026, while even Baltimore’s best starting pitchers come with question marks. Moving the likes of Dean Kremer and Zach Eflin to the side, it’s fair to ask if the 2025 version of Trevor Rogers was for real. Or if Shane Baz can actually stay healthy and live up to his former prospect pedigree. There’s enough questions where the Orioles feel like the perfect landing spot of either Framber Valdez or Zac Gallen, especially with the Mets already acquiring their top-end starter through trade in Freddy Peralta. If Baltimore gets Valdez next week, you’ll be happy you bet this future now at 84.5 wins.
Colorado Rockies
The thought process here is pretty simple: Do you think the Rockies are a full 10 wins better than they were last season? Needless to say, I have my doubts!
I guess there’s a case to be made that things can’t get any worse. Colorado finished dead-last in almost every important statistical category in 2025, including wRC+ (74), expected wOBA (.294) and OBP (.293) on the hitting side, and ERA (5.99), xERA (5.26) and strikeouts per nine (6.99) on the pitching side. The team only had four players that produced at least 1.0 fWAR: Hunter Goodman, Kyle Freeland, Jimmy Herget and Ryan McMahon. For those keeping track at home, that’s a list that features a starter with a 4.96 xERA and 17 losses, a mid-inning reliever, and a third baseman that played for the Yankees in August and September. Woof. I could maybe hear the case for internal improvement from Chase Dollander, Brenton Doyle or Ezequiel Tovar, yet even all three of those seasons breaking the right way probably wouldn’t save this franchise from another year of chasing the all-time losses record. Nor is the presence of big-ticket free agent [check notes]… Willi Castro.
By FanGraphs projections, the Rockies aren’t just going to be the worst team in baseball — they’re in a tier all to their own. Currently, Colorado is projected for 19.4 fWAR. For some context, the White Sox rank 29th at 28.0. The second-worst National League club is the Nationals at 29.4.
The sliver-lining here is that at least the Rockies have finally admitted that the team needs a new direction, firing GM Bill Schmidt this offseason. Schmidt had been the man making decisions in Colorado since 2021, and had been in the Rockies’ organization since 1999. The new blood brought in to steer the next era of Colorado baseball? Paul DePodesta of Moneyball fame. A man who has been working in the NFL for the past decade. Never change, Rockies. Never change.
St. Louis Cardinals
Another team in the middle of a GM transition — and a full-out rebuild — is the Cardinals. Do you want to know what signifies a club that is in the midst of a rebuild? Look no further than paying Nolan Arenado $31 million dollars to play for a rival National League team.
Half-jokes aside, this roster has all the makings of a 100-loss ballclub, something St. Louis has not done since 1908. Maybe it’s that perception of the franchise that is keeping this total above 70 on the DraftKings Sportsbook. I mean, it’s certainly not the Cardinals’ pitching staff. Stop me when you read a name that you feel confident is pitching six quality innings on a given night in June. Matthew Liberatore and his ninth percentile opponent expected batting average (.272). Andre Pallante and his fourth percentile strikeout rate (15.5%). Dustin May and his 5.19 xERA over 132.1 innings in 2025. This is not the top of a rotation for an organization that cares about winning any time in the next nine months. That’s not even mentioning the pressure being placed on Michael McGreevy, who has thrown fewer than 120 innings at the MLB level, or Kyle Leahy, who was a reliever last season.
Then there’s the lineup. St. Louis certainly employs some useful players, as someone like Ivan Herrera could be a breakout star of the 2026 campaign if he’s able to stay healthy. That said, there’s definitely some doubt as to how long assets such as Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbar and Alec Burleson will be on this roster. Could they be traded before Spring Training? Will they make it past the July deadline? It’s all an unknown.
At the end of the day, new Cardinals POBO Chaim Bloom has no provocation to be competitive this summer. He’s not fighting for his job. St. Louis will make some trades and be bad. In fact, with the Reds’ pitching talent and the Pirates spending a little money, they’ll more than likely be the worst team in what is usually regarded as MLB’s worst division. That equates to an easy under in my books.