It’s been years since I was anywhere close to a “watch 162 games closely” person. There definitely was a point in life where if at all possible I was either watching or listening. A combination of parenting and adulting along with a dose of really bad Cubs baseball pushed me to someone who over time followed less. The rise of first the internet and then cell phones led me to a place where on those days where I couldn’t watch or listen, I could at least follow the game.
These days, I probably monitor 150 or more games closely. For WPA purposes, I really want to have an impression of the “shape” of the game. Who scored first? Did the lead change hands? Multiple times? After that, I use social media. For better or for worse, I’m looking for what fans picked up on. Friday night, obviously the first huge theme was Julian Merryweather and the second was PCA. That game largely wrote itself. A sweeping lead change with two huge storylines like that? That’s an easy one. Especially since, as I’ve talked about many times, I’m trying to talk about larger themes here and let Al go over the play by play of the key moments.
Obviously, Merryweather was the unfortunate type of storyline. The culmination of a year plus of injuries and deteriorating performance. A reminder of how thin the margins are for relievers. People throw around easily the idea that performance among relief pitchers is fickle. As with so many things, that’s over simplified. What you are really saying is that the margin of error for relievers is very small. Our old pal Andrew Chafin reminds us that relievers are just failed starters. It’s changed some through the years, but the general idea is that if you were phenomenal, they’d get you into the rotation. Most relievers either lack command, control or sufficient pitch mix to be successful as starters. Whatever the weakness or weaknesses are can and will manifest and keep them from having sustained success.
I’m sure I don’t have every word of that right, but that’s the gist of it. When everything was going right, Julian was a good reliever. He was a key reliever on the 2023 Cubs team. He flashed some good moments in 2024 and this year. But, I know one of the things I saw was that his velocity was down at times this year. I don’t know if there is something physically wrong with him, it’s an aging thing or if he needed to take something off to command better. The sum of the equation wasn’t effective. I’m always sorry to see someone go, but it was the decision that needed to be made.
Getting back to the top of this piece, that was a long way of saying that I didn’t watch or even follow Saturday’s game. It was 6-1 before I saw anything about the game. It appears to have been a good game for me to be out of pocket. Amusingly, I did follow them scoring in all of the seventh, eighth and ninth innings for the second day in a row. I’ll go ahead and say that if the Cubs want to score the last three times they bat in a game, they are going to win a lot of games.
When I did see people talking about the game, I saw a lot of comments and a few metrics that suggested that the Cubs made better contact all day long but just had nothing to show for it. It’s an interesting thing. CDu and I have gone back and forth the last two times the Cubs have faced lefty starters. The actual metrics for the Cubs against left-handed pitching in full are pretty good. But including Saturday’s loss, the Cubs are only 6-6 against left-handed starters. There appears to be noise on both sides of the data. I don’t think it is super clear how that will bear out over a long run.
You can’t just look at one game and use it as any kind of long term barometer. But, against the left-handed starter, the Cubs scored one run in the first six innings (Andrew Abbott left with two outs in the sixth). Then the Cubs scored single runs against each of three relievers in the final three innings. Small sample. It was different on Friday.
Colin Rea yielded a lot of damage for the first time. He was tagged with six runs in five innings. He did strikeout eight. That was somewhat consistent with the results in 2024 for him against the Reds as a member of the Brewers. So far that team hasn’t been a good matchup for Colin. It happens.
I’m going to say again that my takeaway is that the Cubs came off the mat, they got back into the game. They could have rolled over and played dead. They didn’t it. Anytime anyone wants to call me on seeing silver linings everywhere, I get it.
Pitch Counts:
Cubs: 152 (8 IP), 37 BF
Reds: 154, 38 BF
The analysis is easy here. The Reds ended up throwing two more pitches and facing one more batter, despite throwing an additional inning. The Cubs pitching numbers aren’t atrocious. If we project that 152 pitches over nine innings, the Cubs are up around 170ish. It’s just not good enough. But you don’t need any metrics, blunt or advanced to see that six runs over eight innings just isn’t good.
The saving grace is that the two pitchers who I’d perceive to be the last two out of the pen are the only ones who threw here. Ryan Brasier only threw 14 pitches. I wouldn’t imagine they want to throw him immediately into back-to-back scenarios. At the same time, I presume the club thinks he can handle that scenario and could pitch if needed.
The Reds numbers aren’t incredible either. But a good deal better. I suggested yesterday that I thought you probably want your number under 150. The Reds didn’t miss badly. As for their bullpen usage, they used three relievers, including their closer. Graham Ashcraft and Tony Santillan each threw more than 25 pitches. It’s possible that neither are available Sunday. The Reds bullpen has been statistically very effective. But, it’s gotten knocked around pretty good in the first two games of this series.
Three Stars:
Matt Shaw has three hits, including two doubles. He also made a couple of nice plays over at third. His wRC+ is up to 95.
Carson Kelly came off the bench with the injury to Miguel Amaya. Kelly had a pair of hits, one a homer. He scored half of the team’s runs. His workload will increase. It’s a real opportunity for Carson.
Justin Turner finally hit his first homer. He’s not reached 100 plate appearances yet as a Cub. He needs to offer some threat at the plate, so this was a good sign.
Game 52, May 24: Reds 6, Cubs 4 (31-21)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Matt Shaw (.087). 3-4, 2 2B
Hero: Carson Kelly (.063). 2-2, HR, RBI, 2 R
Sidekick: Justin Turner (.058). 1-3, HR, RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Colin Rea (-.252). 5 IP, 25 BF, 7 H, 3 BB, 6 ER, 8 K, 2 WP (L 3-1)
Goat: Ian Happ (-.106). 1-5, RBI
Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.105). 0-3, SF, RBI
WPA Play of the Game: Elly De La Cruz had a two-run homer with one out in the first for the game’s first two runs. (.157)
*Justin Turner’s homer leading off the third cut the lead to one. (.096)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Poll
Who was the Cubs Player of the Game?
0%
Brooks Kriske (2 IP, 8 BF, H, 2 BB, K)
(0 votes)
0%
Someone else (leave your suggestion in the comments)
(0 votes)
0 votes total
Yesterday’s Winner: PCA received 258 of 267 votes
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Kyle Tucker +21
Shōta Imanaga/Drew Pomeranz/Miguel Amaya +11
PCA +8.5
Dansby Swanson -8.33
Ben Brown -11
Michael Busch -11.33
Seiya Suzuki -11.5
Julian Merryweather -15
I was amused thinking about a game like this in context with the Rizzo award. People spend a lot of time being bothered about defense or baserunning not be distributed properly. Shaw’s day plays a lot of days. But three hits, no runs batted in, it’s not massive. But it catches a Superhero. That same game probably misses the podium for a game like Friday’s. Just a passing thought.
Up Next: The third and final game of the first meeting of the year between these two clubs. Winner takes the first round of this year’s war. Ben Brown (3-3, 5.44, 46⅓ IP) makes his 10th start of the year. In four May starts, he is 1-1, 4.71, 21 IP, so we’re seeing a little progress. But he got knocked around against Miami last time out. He continues to strike out more than a batter per inning on a consistent basis. Don’t give up on this guy yet.
The Reds counter with 27-year-old lefty Nick Lodolo. So we get another look at the Cubs against a left-handed starter. As the sample size builds out, we look at the battle between very good overall numbers against lefty pitchers and a middling win/loss record against left-handed starters. Lodolo (4-4, 3.22, 58⅔ IP) was the seventh overall pick in 2019 by the Reds. He’ll be making the 58th start of his career. He’s 1-2 with a 4.76 ERA in 22⅔ innings in May.
His damage in May was done by the Nationals back on May 3. He wasn’t great against the White Sox either on May 14. Both of those starts were at home. Going back to April 15, he had a rough start against the Mariners, also at home. Small samples again, but Nick hasn’t been great at home.
This should be an interesting game. The Cubs have answered so many challenges this year. I’m definitely not counting them out of this one.