Cody Bellinger, the last offensive free agent of note this winter, has agreed to a deal with the Yankees. Per Jon Heyman, the deal is for $162.5 million over five years, with $85 million coming in the first two years and an opt out after the 2027 season. That’s significantly more than the 5/$135 Fangraphs had projected him for at the beginning of the winter, and the front loading and opt out further increase the value from his point of view. It’s been a good winter for hitters, with Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette opting for short deals that blew their expected AAVs out of the water, and Alex Bregman, Bellinger, Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso getting big deals with totals that exceeded expectations.
Bellinger had his best, and healthiest, season in years in New York last season. He played in 152 games, posting a .272/.334/.480 slash line that was 25% better than league average while going 13 for 15 stealing bases and playing very good corner outfield defence with some passable work in centre as well.
His return completes the reunion of last year’s Yankees outfield after fellow free agent centre fielder Trent Grisham accepted the qualifying offer earlier this winter. They and right fielder Aaron Judge will form probably the strongest offensive outfield in the game.
The move signals that the team doesn’t think former uber-prosepect Jasson Dominguez is quite ready for prime time. Dominguez got into 123 games in New York in his age 22 season last year and hit well enough for his age (103 wRC+), but stats and scouts graded his left field defence as atrocious in spite of his plus speed. It also pushes Spencer Jones out of the big league outfield picture as long as all of the starters are healthy. Jones grabbed attention by clubbing 35 home runs in just 116 games across AA and AAA last season, but also struck out 35% of the time with just a 60% contact rate, and evaluators doubt that his swing and approach would survive MLB pitching.
The free agent market is now looking pretty thin, with Eugenio Suarez the only batter left who looks likely to receive a significant multi-year deal. There’s a little more on the pitching side, with Framber Valdez and Zac Gallen yet to find landing spots. Although the Jays missed out on the major MLB bats, their plan of locking in their free agents early in the offseason looks good given how high prices have landed