After you’ve immersed yourself in hundreds of trading card odds sheets, a few truths start to feel almost universal: “Production went up” and “if you’re going to buy, buy hobby boxes,” as they are most often the best format for value.

Every now and then, a product breaks those maxims and does something genuinely interesting, whether it’s 2025 Pro Debut Baseball zigging where everything else zags, (less production and more value dense year over year, when every other product seems to be going the opposite direction) or a retail format like 2025-26 Topps Chrome Basketball hangers (the smallest format retail boxes hanging on pegs at Target and Walmart) unexpectedly carrying the value crown.

Stadium Club has always lived comfortably in its own lane. It’s a fun rip that urges you to look closer at the non-traditional photography used on the cards, it usually feels fairly priced compared to other releases and year over year, you generally know what to expect without too many surprises.

In many ways, 2025 Stadium Club Baseball is no different. But beneath the surface, there are some notable quirks that are going to require a bit of a deeper look.

One format clearly separates itself from the rest, but the published odds leave out some vital information that materially impacts how this product can be evaluated (though they can be amended later).

So before leaning on assumptions or past versions, let’s strip it down and see what the numbers tell us.

The basics

Topps.com pre-order prices: Value box $24.99 (five cards per pack, eight packs per box, four exclusive lime green parallels per box), Mega box $49.99 (eight cards per pack, 18 packs per box, nine exclusive light blue parallels per box), Hobby box $119.99 (eight cards per pack, 16 packs per box, one autograph per box).

Release date: Feb. 18, 2026

Top chase cards we know of so far: A loaded Chrome autograph checklist and insert auto checklists featuring such names as Aaron Judge, Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds, Bobby Witt Jr., Derek Jeter, Julio Rodríguez, Juan Soto, James Wood, Jacob Wilson, Mike Trout, Nick Kurtz, Paul Skenes, Ronald Acuna Jr., Roki Sasaki and Shohei Ohtani. (Official set checklist here.)

Ichiro’s last MLB game ever is captured on this 1/1 autograph card 🥹🇯🇵

Arriving in Stadium Club on 2/18 🗓️ pic.twitter.com/lHpTDpYoGQ

— Topps (@Topps) January 22, 2026

How I calculate production numbers: The odds sheets that Topps publishes are a valuable tool, packed with data points. Though some of these data points can be erroneous for a number of reasons, there is enough there to give us a pretty good idea of what’s going on within a release. The first thing I do is use pack odds to figure out how many packs and, by extension, boxes, are produced for each format. Depending on the size of the release and how many formats are involved, this can be a tedious process of algebra and logic, but eventually, I will land on total production by format. Once I know production for all the formats, I can fairly easily figure out how many cards are produced for the entire product.

Keep in mind, these are not official Topps numbers and will never be disclosed by Topps. They are simply (or not so simply) devised from reverse engineering the odds sheets that they publish.

I strive to be accurate to within a five percent margin of error. Topps odds sheets have a tendency to be wonky and mistake-prone at best, and a complete disaster at worst. But they are generally very thorough. This thoroughness typically allows me a number of ways to cross-check data and even when they do make mistakes, like typos or transposing numbers, I can often tell what the correct value is.

I also try to get the numbers out as early as possible. Sometimes mistakes will happen and, as new information comes to light, I’m happy to revisit and amend my numbers to match reality. I also watch online breakers and product rippers as “field study” material to ensure the odds on paper are as accurate as they can be.

What that said, here are my findings.

Total cards in the product: 64,401,495 (2024 Stadium Club: 29,135,860)

Year over year increase: +121 percent

Total production by format

Important note: I typically don’t split up the “SE” (Topps/Fanatics direct) & “EA” (retail store exclusive) versions of stock keeping units (SKUs) as they’re generally very similar in odds, but this time the difference matters.

Additionally, we know that autos in Hobby boxes have been reduced from two to one for 2025. With this, last year’s Compact boxes or “Hobby Foundation Boxes” as listed on the odds sheet (1 auto each) have also been abandoned and replaced with Mega boxes (not 1 auto each).

2025 Hobby: 109,963 boxes (6,873 cases)

2024 Hobby: 51,150 boxes

YOY: +115 percent

 

Value Box SE: 305,508 boxes (7,638 cases)

Value Box EA: 150,674 boxes (3,767 cases)

2025 total: 456,182 Value boxes

2024 total: 271,564 Value boxes

YOY: +68 percent

 

Mega Box SE: 85,048 boxes (4,252 cases)

Mega Box EA: 67,807 boxes (3,390 cases)

2025 total: 152,855 Mega boxes

2024 total (Compact boxes): 59,063

YOY: +159 percent

 

Fat Pack SE: 396,574 packs (3,672 cases)

Fat Pack EA: 274,615 packs (2,543 cases)

2025 total: 671,189 Fat Packs

2024 total: 529,740 Fat Packs

YOY: +26.7 percent

So, we’ve already established that production more than doubled from 2024 to 2025. Which means the number of autos should have doubled too … right? Guess again.

2025 total autos in product: 229,748

2024 total autos: 197,237

YOY: +16.5 percent

Production more than doubled, yet total auto insertion only increased ever so slightly.

What’s missing

Earlier, I mentioned that the odds sheet is missing some critical information, and this is where we run into some things that will need clarification upon release of the product. Published photos of both Value and Mega boxes clearly show stated base Chrome parallels insertion at a rate of one per two packs. Strangely, those base Chromes are not listed anywhere on the odds sheet. The only Chromes that are listed are autos.

I also have to assume base Chromes appear in Hobby boxes as well, but so far, I have not seen any packaging or photos that indicate how many are included per box. Hopefully, this same omission explains the absence of the wildly popular Gold Minted parallel, a staple of past Stadium Club releases and one of the best-looking cards in the set, which is also nowhere to be found on the odds sheet.

Due to these omissions, and in order for my comparisons to have substance, I’m going to make a couple of assumptions.

1) Since it appears we know how many Chromes will be in Megas & Values, I’m going to assume the same insertion rate to be true in Hobby boxes, giving us eight Chromes per hobby box.

2) I’m also going to assume one Chrome per Fat Pack, though this matters very little considering the Fat Packs are a must-avoid if you are looking for any kind of value. Occasionally, we’ll have a release where Fat Packs actually provide a cost-effective option to land parallels (though they’re always bone dry when it comes to autos). This is not one of those releases. If you see Fat Packs hanging in the card aisle, that’s where they should stay. The odds are long for any kind of worthwhile hit.

We may find out Fat Packs don’t contain Chrome, but that’s OK. This will allow estimated total card production to be accurate, though Chrome estimation could be a bit off one way or the other.

One additional question worth asking: Have we ever seen base Chromes in a release without Chrome parallels? If Chrome parallels do exist here, they are missing from the odds sheet, as well. If we find they do exist, I will adjust my figures by converting the appropriate amount of base cards to Chrome parallels.

The bottom line is with current data, we just have to do the best we can. Depending on how dense the Chromes are, and whether Chrome parallels are in play, Stadium Club boxes, especially Hobby, are almost certainly better than what the current data can confirm. I’ll update this as more information surfaces, but unfortunately that may not happen until we can watch the product being ripped.

What’s not missing

This year, we have a fun little addition that I don’t recall from past Stadium Club releases: Magic boxes. Something similar has shown up in several different releases now, where a small number of boxes contain a very high number of rare cards. I have no idea what the Stadium Club Magic boxes contain, but based on the recent Cosmic Lunar boxes, they could be phenomenal. I hope someone records a rip of one of these, so we get to share in the details.

Magic Box production appears to be as follows:

6 Magic Hobby Boxes

2 Magic Mega Boxes

7 Magic Value Boxes

Hit frequencies

Hobby Boxes:

Autos: 1.2 per box
(Boxes state one auto per box, but the math suggests a meaningful number of boxes will contain an “extra” auto, meaning fewer than last year, but more than what’s advertised.)

Parallels: 19.2 per box + 8 Chrome per box, presumptively

Inserts: 8.2 per box

Numbered Cards: roughly 1 per 2.2 hobby boxes

Numbered cards appear slightly diluted this year. There are several unnumbered parallels across formats, but relatively few that are tangibly numbered. This assumes the new turquoise parallel is /99 and that Golds, which were unnumbered last year, are now /50.

Value boxes:

SE (Topps/Fanatics online): 15.9 boxes per auto, 5 parallels per box (+4 Chromes), 2 inserts, and a rough 44.7 boxes per numbered card

EA (Retail outlets): 9.1 boxes per auto, 5 parallels per box (+4 Chromes), 2 inserts, and 22.1 boxes per numbered card

This is the first time I can remember odds being markedly worse on a format directly from the manufacturer than the ones you can pick up at your local Target. The difference in autos alone is enough to warrant buying your value boxes in person. But before you go that route, do yourself a favor and read a bit further.

Mega boxes:

SE: 3.3 boxes per auto, 11.1 parallels/box (+9 Chromes), 9 inserts, 8.7 boxes per numbered card

EA: 3.2 boxes per auto, 11.1 parallels/box (+9 Chromes), 9 inserts, 6.9 boxes per numbered card

Megas don’t show a lot of difference, but I still wanted to separate them as I have an underlying point to make.

Fat Packs:

SE: 54 packs/auto, 1 parallel, 0.5 inserts, 309 packs per numbered card

EA: 28.4 packs/auto, 1 parallel, 0.5 inserts, 214 packs per numbered card

It is clear that when it comes to retail, the EA version of all formats is distinctly better. If you must buy retail, buy it in person. As strange as it sounds, for this product, don’t order retail direct from Topps.

However, even more importantly, if at all possible, retail should be avoided. For the sole reason that, by the numbers, Hobby boxes are the best format by a wide margin.

Value Landscape:

$/card: (Price of the box ÷ number of cards it contains)

1) Mega: 35¢

2) Value: 63¢

$/parallel: (Price of the box ÷ number of parallels it contains on avg)

1) Mega: $2.49

2) Value: $2.76

$/auto: (Price of the box ÷ avg number of autos it contains)

1) Hobby: $101.69

2) Mega: $159

$/numbered card: (Price of the box ÷ avg number of numbered cards it contains)

1) Hobby: $264

2) Mega: $345

At a macro level, this view looks very tame compared to my full-value spreadsheet that itemizes every parallel, insert, and auto. But the takeaway is unmistakable. Hobby boxes are the most cost-effective way to pull meaningful variations of any kind, and in almost every category, they win by a wide margin.

Given that Hobby prices are likely to spike, I wanted to see where the break-even point is. Even at $200 per box, Hobby still dominates autos and parallels and is only slightly behind Megas from big-box retail when it comes to inserts. The gap in auto value is so large that retail simply doesn’t make sense until Hobby pushes well past that price point.

So yes, this will sound familiar: if you’re buying Stadium Club, just buy Hobby. I know, it stinks, it’s down to one auto per box. Just buy Hobby. I know Mega boxes literally have the most cards per box of all formats. Still, just buy Hobby.

Best format for value: I think you know my thoughts here (Hobby boxes).

Print runs

Parallels

Members Only: ~60 ea

Photographer’s Proof: ~30 ea

Sepia: ~4,020 ea

Red: ~8,800 ea

Bronze: ~1,100 ea

Blue: ~275 ea

Black & White: ~100 ea

Pink: ~3,360 ea

Light Blue: ~6,880 ea

Lime Green: ~9,125 ea

Base Chrome: ~23,760 ea

Inserts

Beam Team (20 card checklist): ~610 ea

Concentration (25 card CL): ~35,000 ea

Concentration Pink: ~140 ea

In Case of Emergency (25 card CL): ~35,000 ea

In Case of Emergency Pink: ~140 ea

Savage Sluggers (25 card CL): ~35,000 ea

Savage Sluggers Pink: ~140 ea

Yours for the Taking (25 card CL): ~35,000 ea

Yours for the Taking Pink: ~140 ea

Autos

Base autos (161 card checklist): ~760 ea

Base Yellow: ~265 ea

Base Chrome autos (73 card CL): ~160 ea

Abstract autos (14 card CL): ~120 ea

Concentration autos (12 card CL): ~125 ea

Goin’ Yard autos (16 card CL): ~110 ea

In Case of Emergency autos (17 card CL): ~75 ea

Savage Sluggers autos (18 card CL): ~70 ea

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