Around here, we operate with a hard and fast approach to the science of Roster Projections. The rule: You can’t commence this exercise until the Texas Rangers make a significant trade or the first deep freeze of the winter, whichever comes first.
Fortunately for us all, both coincided this past week with the acquisition of MacKenzie Gore and the arrival of snow and ice. A deep freeze always gives us way too much time to spin our idle wheels.
So, with exactly two months to go until opening day (as of Monday), we’ve bypassed the need for spring training entirely and come up with our first roster projection of the spring, er, winter.
Here’s a look at where the Rangers’ 26-man roster stands at the moment and what things will need to be decided in spring training.
Rangers
Starting rotation (5)
RHP Jacob deGrom, RHP Nathan Eovaldi, LHP MacKenzie Gore, RHP Jack Leiter, LHP Jacob Latz
Also contending: RHP Kumar Rocker, LHP Austin Gomber
What’s the story: Providing they stay healthy, the first four spots in the rotation stack up as top tier, based on Fangraphs projections. Only Seattle and Detroit have significantly higher projected WAR among the first four spots. But the Rangers have to settle the fifth spot, at least for April. Latz should have the inside track based on his performance last year, but if Rocker takes steps like Leiter did last spring, it could allow the Rangers to shift Latz into a very valuable bullpen piece, and the bullpen is where the Rangers still need work. Both need to throw quality strikes in spring training to seize the final spot.
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What we’re thinking: It might make sense to start Rocker in the rotation and push Latz into a piggyback situation in April where he backs up Nathan Eovaldi (who is likely to be handled delicately early) and Rocker. He’d still get six to seven innings per week, but could impact two games in each turn of the rotation instead of one. If Cody Bradford’s rehab from elbow surgery is complete by the end of April, Latz could then transition into a multi-inning, high-leverage reliever, which would significantly strengthen the bullpen.
Bullpen (8)
RHP Chris Martin, LHP Robert Garcia, RHP Jakob Junis, RHP Cole Winn, RHP Alexis Diaz, LHP Tyler Alexander, RHP Luis Curvelo, RHP Carter Baumler
Also contending: RHP Josh Sborz, RHP Marc Church, RHP Zak Kent, RHP Emiliano Teodo, LHP Austin Gomber
What’s the story: It’s no secret the Rangers don’t have a closer going to spring training, though Diaz has significant experience in the role. Diaz’s velocity in spring will be noteworthy; if he’s pushing back toward 95 mph, it will be a significant development. He hasn’t been there in a year, however. Not sure the Rangers will come out of spring with closer settled either. They could very easily try to audition guys into the season. If Latz ends up here to start the season, it’s going to force somebody out, which means either the optionable Curvelo or Rule 5 pick Baumler. And it’s difficult to go into the season without an optionable piece because you need to rotate relievers based on workloads.
What we’re thinking: Sborz could well end up the team’s closer, but the bet here is that after a long shoulder rehab, the Rangers aren’t about to rush anything. So he starts the season on the IL, getting a handful of innings in minor league games while the Rangers get a better feel for what they have from the newcomers. But when they are at full strength, it gets hard to see a viable path for keeping Baumler all year, unless he shows advanced strike-throwing ability.
Catcher (2)
C Kyle Higashioka, C Danny Jansen
Also contending: C Willie MacIver
What’s the story: Barring a health issue, there shouldn’t be anything to see here. The Rangers have to sort out how they want to best deploy Higashioka and Jansen, their catching platoon, to keep both fresh and productive. The main goal here in spring training will be to simply keep them healthy. It still seems like a lot to ask either catcher to start 81 – half a season’s worth – games.
What we’re thinking: Expect Willie MacIver to get a long look during spring training, so the Rangers know what they have because even in a best-case scenario, they are probably going to need 25-30 games from a catcher other than Higashioka and Jansen. It will not be surprising to see the Rangers sign another veteran to a non-roster deal as insurance. Old friend Mitch Garver is still out there. So is last year’s deposed starter Jonah Heim, but don’t expect the Rangers to revisit that.
Infield (5)
1B Jake Burger, 2B Josh Smith, 3B Josh Jung, SS Corey Seager, UTIL Ezequiel Duran
Also contending: INF Cody Freeman, INF Jonah Bride, INF Tyler Wade
What’s the story: This is a huge year for Jake Burger and Josh Jung, and it makes spring training more important for both. The Rangers need to see adjustments to their approach at the plate during spring training to give them more wiggle room heading into the season. If anybody needs a reminder: The club optioned Burger to the minors briefly last year just a month into the season. The other thing that will get lots of examination: Ezequiel Duran’s role. He’s now in the role Smith previously held as the super utility guy. The Rangers believe Duran can be more productive with more playing time, but he’s got to earn more playing time.
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What we’re thinking: The final spot on the roster is likely going to come down to Freeman vs. Helman. Helman, capable of playing center field in addition to second base, may offer a little more versatility than Freeman. But the Rangers will want to find a way, if possible, to get Freeman’s energy in the clubhouse. He was a big part of the September surge that temporarily righted the Rangers season. Since both Freeman and Helman have minor league options, they could be riding the shuttle back and forth based on the club’s needs.
Outfield-DH (6)
LF Evan Carter, CF Wyatt Langford, RF Brandon Nimmo, OF-INF Sam Haggerty, OF-INF Michael Helman, DH Joc Pederson
Also contending: OF Alejandro Osuna
What’s the story: The Rangers must determine outfield alignment. Carter may be the most “natural” center fielder, but he’s had an injury history that’s kept him off the field and is also probably not going to face most left-handed pitchers. Do the Rangers want to be swapping out center fielders? Or would they rather station Langford, a core piece, in center and worry about the flanks? If they go with Carter in left and Nimmo in right, that’s a lot of unfamiliarity for those players. The Rangers also need to sort through Haggerty and Helman, who both present right-handed options to spell Carter, but may also be too similar. The Rangers need to see a better version of Pederson than in 2025 and that applies to spring training, as well.
What we’re thinking: By the end of 2025, Osuna seemed to make really significant progress at the plate and his at-bats were as competitive as anybody on the roster. But as a lefty corner outfield option, he seems blocked by Carter and Nimmo, both lefties. It might make more sense for him to open the season in the minors getting everyday play rather than sit on the bench in the majors. But if there is a spring training injury to an outfielder, he probably jumps both Haggerty and Helman in terms of priority.
Texas Rangers agree to minor league deal with veteran left-handed starter
Austin Gomber, 32, was 0-7 last year and has a 5.47 ERA in 361 innings over the last three seasons with the Rockies.
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