Every year, a handful of players ranked outside the top 10 in their respective farm systems take meaningful steps forward to improve their stock and vault up prospect rankings. Part of the fun is trying to identify those breakouts before it happens. So today, we’re identifying Padres prospects who have the potential to make a jump in 2026.
To qualify, a player must rank outside the organization’s preseason Top 10 prospects. All scouting reports are from Baseball America’s 2026 Prospect handbook, which you can purchase here.
You can find Top 30 prospect rankings for all teams here and all breakout candidates here.
Breakout Prospects
Tucker Musgrove, RHP
BA Grade/Risk: 50/High
Adjusted Grade: 35
Track Record: Musgrove was drafted as a pitcher in 2023 after a standout two-way career at NAIA Mobile in Alabama. The Padres signed him for $175,000, and he had Tommy John surgery shortly after signing. He was on the shelf for all of 2024 and made his pro debut in 2025 with Low-A Lake Elsinore. Across 14 appearances and 20.1 innings, Musgrove compiled a 5.40 ERA and collected 26 strikeouts. Musgrove made six appearances in the Arizona Fall League after the season.
Scouting Report: Musgrove is an athletic righthander who works exclusively out of the stretch and attacks out of a three-quarters arm slot. He moves well on the mound with present arm speed and relies heavily on his fastball/slider combination. If it wasn’t for Michael Salina, Musgrove’s heater would arguably be the best in the system. It sits in the mid-to-upper 90s and has been up to 100 mph with solid carry in the top half of the zone. His average spin rate on his four-seamer was an impressive 2,486 rpm, and Musgrove’s flat vertical approach angle enhances the pitch’s riding effect. It consistently gets above the barrel of opposing hitters, and in 2025 it generated a 39% miss rate. Musgrove’s mid-to-upper-80s sweeper is inconsistent in shape, but at its best it flashes sharp, lateral life with a bit of late bite. Like his heater, Musgrove’s slider also is a consistent generator of whiffs. Musgrove rounds out his arsenal with a seldom-used mid-to-upper-80s curveball that’s bigger in shape with downward bite. Musgrove’s command is scattershot at the moment but should improve as he continues to add mileage to his arm.
The Future: Musgrove’s athleticism and high-end stuff both serve as exciting building blocks for his development. He will get the chance to prove himself as a starter, but if he eventually moves to the bullpen, he profiles as a dynamic reliever.
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 45 | Slider: 55 | Control: 40
BA Grade/Risk: 45/Average
Adjusted Grade: 35
Track Record: Karpathios signed as an undrafted free agent for $125,000 following a standout 2022 season at Harford Community College in which he hit .377/.560/.746 with 10 home runs and 49 walks to just 30 strikeouts. After some initial growing pains, Karpathios has come into his own and is fresh off a breakout 2025 season. Between High-A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio, he hit .249/.357/.413 with 22 doubles and a career-best 15 home runs.
Scouting Report: Karpathios is a strong-bodied athlete who has an appealing blend of tools on both sides of the ball. His batted-ball data can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the Padres’ system and—given his blend of advanced swing decisions and impact—is perhaps the best. While there’s some swing-and-miss against secondary pitches, it hasn’t hindered Karpathios’ production. He feasted on fastballs, hitting over .290 with 25 extra-base hits in 2025. Along with his overall chase rate of just 19%, Karpathios posted a strong 90th percentile exit velocity of 105.8 mph. He is capable of generating quality contact to all fields, but his ability to drive the ball with authority to the opposite field is particularly impressive. Karpathios is an above-average athlete who is capable of handling all three outfield positions. He has range in either direction to go along with an average arm. His defensive profile is best suited for right field.
The Future: Karpathios’ year-over-year improvement is an encouraging sign, and he was a bit of a revelation in 2025. If he can ride the momentum he built, there’s a chance he could end up at Triple-A before long and make his big league debut in 2027.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 50 | Run: 45 | Field: 50 | Arm: 55
Deivid Coronil, 3B
BA Grade/Risk: 55/Extreme
Adjusted Grade: 35
Track Record: Coronil was one of the most exciting Venezuelan prospects in the 2025 international signing period when he signed with the Padres for $900,000. While he flashed upside, his Dominican Summer League debut wasn’t without growing pains. He hit just .186/.327/.214 with three extra-base hits—and zero home runs—across 45 games.
Scouting Report: While Coronil has an exciting combination of raw tools, athleticism and upside, he isn’t without a degree of rawness. Listed at 6-foot-3, 162 pounds, he has a lean, lanky build with plenty of room to fill out. Coronil is a switch-hitter whose swing from the left side is loftier than it is from the right. He had nothing to show for it in the DSL, but prior to being signed, he flashed most of his home run power from the left side. Coronil’s power upside is exciting to dream on, but there are questions about his hit tool. There’s plenty of swing-and-miss in his profile, which might hinder him from ever getting to his power consistently. He is a plus runner with an above-average arm, but he’s trending toward growing out of shortstop and moving to third base or possibly center field.
The Future: There is zero reason to rush Coronil, who is on track to make his Arizona Complex League debut in 2026. His hitting ability will need to take a sizable step forward, but his tools and upside give him a reasonably high ceiling.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Field: 50 | Arm: 55