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Gunnar Henderson and the Orioles are predicted to make a major turn around in 2026.
The Baltimore Orioles‘ retool is going to be a short one, according to Bradford Doolittle of ESPN.com.
The ESPN MLB reporter predicted the Orioles to be one of baseball’s five break-out teams in 2026.
After consecutive playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, the Orioles cratered in 2025, winning just 75 games and finishing in last place in the hyper-competitive American League East.
Baltimore, of course, fired manager Brandon Hyde after starting the season 15-28 and finished with the fourth-fewest wins of the 15 AL teams.
The Orioles Made Major Offseason Moves
The Orioles, along with the Atlanta Braves, were two of the most disappointing teams in MLB in 2025. Yet, Doolittle doesn’t feel that trend is likely to continue — especially since the O’s went 60-59 under Tony Mansolino and hired Craig Albernaz as their manager for 2026.
“Last year, the Orioles were the AL’s version of the Braves,” Doolittle wrote. “The collapse was present on both sides of the ball. The Orioles declined from 4.9 runs scored per game in 2024 to 4.2; their runs allowed increased from 4.3 to 4.9.”
Baltimore’s sudden regression was startling. Still, after falling off by 16 wins between 2024 (91) and 2025 (75), Baltimore made important moves to upgrade its club and should improve by default with some better fortune.
“Luckily, the Orioles haven’t stood pat and pinned all their hopes on better health, positive regression and continued development for key young players such as Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers,” Doolittle wrote. “They also went out and added some impact veterans, including a new closer (Ryan Helsley) and a new cleanup hitter (Pete Alonso).
“But even without more impact additions, the Orioles should almost certainly be better. Health is one key factor, as with Atlanta. According to Baseball Prospectus’ injury data, only Houston had more player value lost to injury a year ago than the Orioles.”
Aside from Alonso, the Orioles also traded former ace starter Grayson Rodriguez to the Los Angeles Angels for Taylor Ward, who hit a career high 36 homers in 2025.
Still, Ward and Alonso can only make up for so much of a difference, and Baltimore’s stars will need to bounce back for the O’s to do so.
“Gunnar Henderson was once again outstanding, just not as much as in 2024, going from a 155 OPS+ to 121,” Doolittle wrote. “In the same vein, Adley Rutschman’s production dipped, but his case is more troubling. His OPS+ progression during his four big league seasons is 131, 128, 105, 90. If he can break that trend and hit his career mark (115), the Orioles will be thrilled.”
The Orioles Still Need One More Impact Starting Pitcher
The Orioles may be much improved on paper, but they still play in the AL East along with three 2025 playoff teams and each of the past two AL champions. That means a bounce-back season — of, say, 8-10 wins — still may not be enough to get Baltimore back to the playoffs.
“The current Orioles are winning an average of 85.2 games in my simulations, a healthy bounce-back that still leaves Baltimore well short of where it was in 2024,” Doolittle wrote.
So even though the O’s acquired Shane Baz from the Tampa Bay Rays, they still need at least one starting pitcher. That would replace Rodriguez and square off against aces like Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray.
Doolittle has one specifically in mind.
“Signing another pitcher (Framber Valdez) would help,” Doolittle wrote.
Pat Pickens is an experienced sports writer and media personality who has written for outlets like NHL.com, the Associated Press, the New York Times and USA Today. He covers the NFL, NBA, NHL and NBA as a breaking news contributor at Heavy. More about Pat Pickens
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