The Miami Marlins shrewdly bought low on Matt Mervis in December. Despite being a lifetime .268/.361/.508 hitter (121 wRC+) in the Chicago Cubs minor league system, Mervis wasn’t going to have an extended runway to establish himself with their big league club. Meanwhile, the Fish could afford to be patient with him.
For a brief stretch, he looked poised for a smooth take-off. Then, underlying mechanical issues delayed those plans. Weeks later, a solution is still nowhere in sight. “Mash Mervis” has turned into a Door Matt for Marlins opponents.
Mervis has been a sub-replacement-level first baseman/designated hitter in 40 games played entering Sunday, slashing .175/.258/.386 (73 wRC+) with seven home runs. He is striking out in 38.3% of his plate appearances. Those overall numbers actually mask how unproductive he’s been for most of his Marlins tenure. The slugger who once led all Minor League Baseball players in RBI for a season has gone more than a month without driving in a single run. His underlying batted ball data is even uglier than his results. If the Marlins were motivated to be contenders, he would have been demoted to the minors by now.
Some all-or-nothing hitters are simply streaky, just a small tweak away from carrying an offense. Marlins fans will remember Jake Burger being a prime example of this in 2024. In Mervis’ case, however, his struggles stem from the way pitchers have been attacking him differently.
Mervis generates plus bat speed and utilizes a modest leg lift. And yet, he’s still been unable to consistently time up fastballs. The league has noticed and bullied him with them, especially early in counts:
The Marlins ensure Mervis has the platoon advantage as much as possible (92.9% of total PA), but that isn’t helping. The average right-handed four-seam fastball in the majors this season has been 94.6 mph, according to Baseball Savant. The average right-handed sinker has been 93.8 mph. In plate appearances ending in four-seamers/sinkers with at least average velo, he has gone 2-for-26 with 17 strikeouts and two walks.
That does not even includes sequences like the one Mervis had against José Soriano in the fourth inning on Saturday night. With runners on the corners and one out, his mission was simple: pull a fly ball to drive in a run. Soriano won the battle fairly easily, getting ahead in the count with four consecutive heaters, then tunneling his curveball off of that to get an awkward chase out of the zone for the K.
Optioning Mervis to Triple-A seems inevitable, though that is not an easy fix. Starters down there don’t possess the same kind of fastball velo, and many of the relievers who do lack control of it (otherwise they’d already be in MLB). If nothing else, a minor league stint would potentially restore the 27-year-old’s confidence.
If the Marlins make that move, Eric Wagaman would take over as their primary first baseman, either with Liam Hicks handling the rest of the workload or Troy Johnston finally getting his shot.