Credit: AP Photo
Fernando Tatis Jr. is coming off his healthiest season to date. His offensive production was strong in 2025; however, many projection models suggest he can reach new heights.
Fernando Tatis Jr. eliminated many ‘what ifs’ in 2025 by playing a career-high 155 games for the Padres. He accumulated 6.1 WAR, ranking as the tenth-most valuable player in the sport under the metric. Much of his prestigious ranking can be attributed to his defense, which earned him his second Platinum Glove Award in 2025. He became only the sixth player in MLB history to win the award multiple times.
However, his offensive contributions didn’t quite reach the industry-leading threshold as his fielding did. He placed outside the top-30 in OPS, a metric that effectively mixes a player’s on-base ability and power production. While his .814 mark is still above average, it wasn’t what he flashed in his monster 2021 campaign, or his late-season heroics in 2024.
His career development and challenges
Fernando Tatis Jr. has jumped many hurdles to become the hitter he is now. He’s dealt with injuries of all types, multiple surgeries, and loads of mechanical adjustments. However, no hurdle has been bigger than the 80-game PED suspension that kept him off the field for 565 days.
It’s easy to look at Tatis Jr. and reminisce over what he once was at the plate. 42 home runs, a .282 batting average, and a .975 OPS is dream-like production. However, a 565-day leave is capable of degrading a player’s entire career. A long absence from the batter’s box isn’t easy to come back from, as hitters need to readjust to seeing major league pitching again.
Since returning, Tatis Jr. has actually improved his bat-to-ball ability year after year. After striking out 28% of the time in 2021, he reduced that clip all the way down to 18.7% in 2025. He made plenty of changes to his swing, quieting both his hands and lower half to hone in on sharper movements.
What’s missing?
Home runs. The long ball has eluded Tatis Jr. ever since he returned in 2023. His totals of 25, 21, and recently 25 homers don’t resemble the thunderous swing that he flashed in 2021.
Now, “home runs” are not to be confused with pure power ability. Tatis Jr’s advanced metrics indicate that his muscle hasn’t gone anywhere. His average exit velocity of 93.3 MPH landed him in the 95th percentile of qualified hitters in 2025. He also hit over half of his batted balls at 95 MPH or harder. In 2024, he reached a max exit velocity of 116.7 MPH, which set a new career-high.
There’s no doubt that the power is still within him. It’s truly only a matter of elevating the ball and putting it over the fence instead of on the ground. As his contact has increased steadily, his average launch angle has been trending in the opposite direction. In 2021, the ball came off his bat at a 13.8° launch angle, on average. In 2025, he fell all the way to a 9.4° launch angle.
Tatis Jr’s swing has flattened out significantly, as he no longer looks to ‘golf’ balls out of the yard. Nowadays, he opts for a line drive approach that struggles to lift anything that isn’t located center-cut. If he wants to return to MVP form, he’ll likely need to alter his swing path.
Fernando Tatís Jr. quietly improved in several areas in 2025.
2024 ➡️ 2025
Zone Contact: 80.4%➡️82.3%
Contact: 71.9%➡️73%
Chase: 28.2%➡️24.4%
BB: 7.3%➡️12.9%
K: 21.9%➡️18.7%
All of the 2025 metrics above were career-best marks for Tatís.pic.twitter.com/MSWUlyzrv6
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) January 8, 2026
His 2026 projection
As it stands, FanGraphs projects Tatis Jr. to eclipse 30 HR and hit .275 at the dish in 2026. Despite falling shy of the 30-homer mark in three straight years, multiple projection models believe that he’ll find the missing power stroke.
In terms of his larger scale projection, FanGraphs projects an .862 OPS and 5.6 WAR-season from Tatis Jr. Additionally, he projects to have a 142 wRC+— which is a metric that aims to capture a player’s run creation ability, with the league average coming at 100. A mark of 142 would be approaching two standard deviations above league average, an elite level of offensive output.
However, there’s still much to be done for Tatis Jr. to reach that point. His second half of the 2025 season presents concern for his bold 2026 outlook. Tatis Jr. only clubbed nine home runs in the second half, which included a 27-game home run drought that plagued his production over the summer months. Although he ramped up down the stretch, it’s alarming to see such a powerful hitter fail to deposit one into the seats over the span of nearly a month.
However, there’s still plenty of reason to believe in a power resurgence. He’s still just 27 years old, although he’s been with the team for seven seasons. He’s still as explosive as ever and has plenty of time to make the necessary adjustments.
Tatis Jr. also has a great opportunity to benefit from the newly hired hitting coach, Steven Souza Jr. Souza is replacing the contact-oriented Victor Rodriguez, who was held responsible in part for the Padres team-wide inability to produce home runs. Souza Jr. is a recently retired MLB player who spent time as a special assistant in the Rays organization. He is expected to bring an emphasis on power hitting to San Diego, which could benefit a player like Tatis Jr.
When Fernando Tatis, Jr. hit a ball COMPLETELY out of Dodger Stadium. pic.twitter.com/QotUYsugR4
— Baseball’s Greatest Moments (@BBGreatMoments) October 29, 2025
Conclusion
The range of outcomes for Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2o26 is certainly wide. With his raw talent, yet untapped swing potential, it’s tough to foresee what we’ll see out of him. While there are warning signs, there’s also a fresh slew of opportunities for Tatis Jr. as the offseason nears a close.
Tatis Jr. will get an early taste of top-level competition as as early March. The Dominican Baseball Federation announced that he, along with teammate Manny Machado, will be representing the Dominican Republic in the 2026 World Baseball Classic. The tournament is expected to be loaded with both MLB and overseas talent, which should provide Tatis Jr. with a healthy tune-up prior to the 2026 MLB season.
A 17-year-old San Diego native, Willy Warren is a baseball fan at heart who created High Leverage Baseball, a public baseball media account covering around-the-league statistical analysis and breakdowns on X. Willy is set to attend the Cronkite School of Journalism in the fall of 2026 at Arizona State University, where he’ll pursue a major in sports journalism.
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