There is a natural instinct, among fan bases, to equate disappointment with demolition. When a season ends without a playoff run, the favored solution is often to burn it down and start over. This offseason, the Minnesota Twins resisted that urge. Instead of opting for a full rebuild, they chose to bet on moves at the margins and the belief that their window has not closed. Given the current landscape of the American League Central, that decision looks more pragmatic than passive.

Projection systems are not gospel, but they provide a useful snapshot of where teams stand relative to one another. By projected team WAR, the Twins sit at 38.8 fWAR, which places them 17th in Major League Baseball and third in the AL Central. Kansas City checks in at 40.8 fWAR and Detroit at 40.6 fWAR. That gap isn’t negligible, but it’s hardly insurmountable.

When FanGraphs converts those projections into expected wins, the margin tightens even further. Detroit is projected to win 83 games, Kansas City 82, and the Twins (also) 82. That clustering, alone, justifies avoiding a teardown. Minnesota is not staring up at a juggernaut. They are very much in the same tier as the teams they need to beat.

Why Can the Twins Contend?
One of the clearest reasons for optimism is the organization’s starting pitching depth. Pablo López (3.4 projected fWAR) and Joe Ryan (3.2 fWAR) remain the anchors, both possessing All-Star pedigrees. Bailey Ober (1.7 fWAR) is the wild card. Last season raised legitimate concerns, but his earlier body of work suggests there is still a borderline All-Star pitcher in there, if he can regain his form. Even if one of those three falters, the Twins are unusually insulated.

Few organizations can roll out the volume of young arms Minnesota has waiting in the wings. Simeon Woods Richardson (1.2 fWAR), Zebby Matthews (1.7 fWAR), Mick Abel (0.6 fWAR), David Festa (0.4 fWAR), and Taj Bradley (1.4 fWAR) all represent viable options who could claim innings at the big-league level. Even prospects like Andrew Morris and Kendry Rojas are likely to get innings with the Twins. Some will succeed, others will not, but the sheer number of options creates flexibility. Injuries and inconsistency are inevitable over a long season. Having credible next-man-up solutions is how teams survive them without collapsing.

The offense is more volatile, but not without upside. The Twins are counting on a mix of modest additions and internal growth. Byron Buxton remains the linchpin (3.3 projected fWAR). When he is healthy and locked in, he changes the shape of the lineup entirely, but fans saw last season that he can’t be the team’s only offensive producer.

Around him, the spotlight falls on a group of young hitters who are still defining themselves. Luke Keaschall (3.0 fWAR), Royce Lewis (2.7 fWAR), Brooks Lee (2.1 fWAR), and Matt Wallner (1.9 fWAR) all enter 2026 with something to prove. Each has shown flashes that suggest a long-term role, and each carries questions about durability, consistency, or ultimate ceiling. The Twins do not need all of them to break out. They need a couple to establish stability.

Depth, again, plays a quiet but important role. At Triple-A St. Paul, Minnesota has legitimate offensive reinforcements waiting. Emmanuel Rodriguez brings on-base ability and power. Walker Jenkins carries star potential that could force the issue sooner, rather than later. Gabriel Gonzalez adds another contact bat with upside. It certainly helps that he’s a right-handed hitter in a sea of lefties for the Twins. If the major-league lineup stagnates, there will be options to inject energy and production without mortgaging the future.

This is why a full rebuild never made sense. The Twins are not old, bloated, or devoid of talent. They are imperfect, yes, but they are also close. In a division where the difference between first and third is a win or two, continuity has value. Development has value. Betting on health and internal growth is not complacency. It is a calculated gamble.

The Twins chose to compete because the math and the roster say they can. In the AL Central, that may be all you need.

Do the Twins have enough to win the AL Central? Leave a comment and start the discussion.