Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
Earlier this offseason, EVT examined a potential free agency fit between the Padres and right-hander Zac Gallen. With the offseason nearing its end and Gallen still on the market, could this match come to fruition?
When evaluating the San Diego Padres’ roster in the buildup to Spring Training, the starting rotation continues to be an area where the team can add to. San Diego has been linked to trades and free agents alike, and one of these arms is former division rival Zac Gallen.
Gallen is a familiar face in San Diego, as he has spent the last six seasons in the National League West. Against San Diego, Gallen has pitched to a 3.49 ERA, 24.1% strikeout rate, and a 5-4 record in 85 innings against the Padres. From 2022-2024, Gallen was one of the most consistent and steady arms in baseball, as he averaged 31 starts, 180 innings, and a 131 ERA+. 2025 looked to be a big platform season for the right-hander, but it was not meant to be.
Gallen opened the 2025 season in rough shape, as outside of one gem against the defending American League champions Yankees, he posted a 5.57 ERA (4.46 FIP) in six starts. The next month was more of the same, as in May, he posted a 5.50 ERA and 4.80 FIP. Aside from dominating the Mets, he posted an ERA nearing nine that month. The summer dragged on, and by the time of the trade deadline, Gallen was sitting at a disappointing 5.60 ERA. Speculation on his trade value floated at the time, but Arizona made the decision to keep Gallen down the stretch. We’ll return to his second-half performance shortly, but after the season, Arizona gave Gallen the $22.05 million qualifying offer, which he rejected.
Why would he reject it? Well, this is where the second half comes into play. In the entirety of the second half, Gallen pitched to a 3.77 ERA, 3.99 FIP, and held batters to a .210/.269/.380 slash line. Gallen turned his season around, and if we limit the results from the start of August to season’s end, he had a 3.32 ERA and 3.95 FIP in 65 innings. Gallen’s second-half performance was one that could have served a team after the deadline, but remaining with Arizona might have been the best solution for his struggles at the time. Clearly, there wasn’t a change in scenery, so what changed?
Gallen made adjustments in his pitch usage down the stretch that allowed him to get stronger results. Batters were crushing his fastball in the first half, slugging over .400 against it. Here are his pitch usage rates from the first half.
48% Fastball, 24.1% Knuckle-Curve, 14% Changeup, 6.4% Slider, 6.9% Cutter, 0.6% Sinker
Unfortunately for Gallen, this approach did not give him the same success in the past. Batters appeared to catch up to his tendencies, and the results on his curveball this past season were a prime example. The second half saw Gallen adjust his pitch mix, as seen here:
2025 2nd Half Results:
77 IP
3.97 ERA
.216/.269/.380
.282 wOBA (Down 55 points ?)
1.17 HR/9
20.5% K
6.6% BB
1.09 WHIP
3.99 FIP
A bounce back 2nd half should earn Zac Gallen a worthwhile contract in 2025. If it doesn’t his short term deal will allow him to prove further why… pic.twitter.com/v8CpDHMcpX
— Baseball Unstitched (@BaseUnstitched) January 27, 2026
The results were stronger, as Gallen saw a dip in opponents’ results. Opponents’ wOBA against him dropped by 55 points, and he allowed fewer walks and homers. After posting a 10.9% HR/FB ratio and a 9.1% walk rate in the first half, his second-half adjustments led to an 8.3% HR/FB ratio and a much more manageable 6.6% walk rate.
Was the sample size smaller?
Sure, but Gallen made legitimate adjustments to deliver these results. Increasing the use of the sinker was the most notable change, as bringing the sinker into play gave Gallen a “bridge pitch” between his fastball and secondaries. Using the sinker as a bridge pitch allowed Gallen to decrease the use of his four-seamer, and because of the sinker’s movement, batters got poor quality of contact.
If Gallen got less deep into counts, he was not only able to pitch deeper into games but was also able to make his other offerings all the more effective in those deeper counts. This change in pitch usage mirrors that of Padres reliever David Morgan, who went from using the sinker 7.9% of the time in the first month of the season to 34.3% of the time in September. While Morgan’s sinker was knocked around somewhat (.375 BA, .440 wOBA), the underlying numbers (.194 xBA, .295 xwOBA) indicated that the pitch got rather unlucky results.
The sinker also made Morgan’s arsenal much more effective for inducing whiffs, with his curveball and slider seeing increased whiff rates as the season went on. Having the sinker as a bridge pitch allows a pitcher to either get an out early in the count or increase the possibility for swing-and-miss on a pitcher’s secondaries. For a high-three-quarter slot pronator like Gallen, the secondary effect of the bridge sinker increases the effectiveness of his knuckle curve, given the contrast in movement profiles.
Zac Gallen is projected to deliver 2.4 fWAR in 2026, and with the average value of one WAR in free agency set at roughly $8 million, using this logic, Gallen’s market value is roughly $19.2 million on the free agent market. For San Diego to pounce on Gallen, they would likely need to spend between $11 million-18 million per season with some sort of team option or incentives.
Adrian Houser, coming off a breakout campaign, signed for $11 million a season with the Giants, and Tatsuya Imai got three years at an $18 million AAV. A one-year, $14 million deal with bonuses on games started, innings pitched, and potentially performance metrics could be the outcome of a one-year deal. The Padres could go the Nick Pivetta route and give Gallen a multi-year deal with a lower luxury tax AAV, but a back-loaded cash value with opt-outs after years 1-2.
The team has options to get creative financially, but time is scarce as Spring Training nears. The loss of draft picks could also be considered, as the Padres would lose the 60th and 135th overall picks for signing Gallen. Ironically, the 135th pick is their compensation pick for Dylan Cease.
Regardless, the San Diego Padres might have money coming off the books depending on the outcome of their rumored negotiations with Yu Darvish or any salary-clearing trade. Based on their staff’s ability to help pitchers get themselves to the next gear, bringing in a clear rebound candidate in Zac Gallen not only provides another starting option, but one that could yield strong results to front the rotation in the playoff chase… or beyond.
A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.
A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.
Continue Reading