Pitcher wins certainly don’t matter in MLB as much as they used to, as there are so many other ways to quantify a hurler’s impact. Gone are the days when a pitcher’s Cy Young case could be bolstered by leading the league in wins.

But wins are still being tracked by statisticians. And there is an MLB betting market for which pitcher will lead the majors in wins during the 2026 season.

So, let’s turn back the clock and pretend wins matter for the purpose of dissecting this futures market at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

MLB Pitcher Wins Leader Odds 2026
Which Pitcher Will Lead MLB in Wins in 2026?

Based on the latest MLB odds, Tarik Skubal is a +700 favorite to lead the majors in wins during the 2026 season. That gives him an implied probability of 12.5%.

Skubal’s case for being the favorite in this market is pretty straightforward. He’s the best pitcher in baseball. He’s also the front-runner in the strikeout leader odds market and American League Cy Young odds race.

And yet, Skubal didn’t lead MLB in wins last year. In fact, he finished 12th with 13 regular-season victories. Have I mentioned how much wins don’t matter?

New York Yankees left-hander Max Fried led the majors with 19 wins during his first season in pinstripes. Boston Red Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet finished in a tie for second with 18 wins.

Fried was a +3500 long shot last preseason. Skubal, meanwhile, started as a +800 favorite.

The pitcher to lead MLB in wins has been 30/1 or longer in this market during the preseason for five straight years.

MLB Pitcher Wins Leader Predictions for 2026

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers: +6600
Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers: +10000

If projections are any indication, the wins leader market will be a tightly-contested race between the top hurlers in the game.

OOPSY, a projection system available at FanGraphs, has Skubal and Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes leading the way with 16 wins. Crochet is projected to be in a three-way tie for third with 15 wins, along with Cristopher Sánchez of the Philadelphia Phillies and Bryan Woo of the Seattle Mariners.

All five pitchers are 20/1 or better in the market, making up most of the top of the leaderboard.

But recent history suggests that long shots are very live in this market. There is just too much volatility between health and pitchers not staying as long in games to earn a decision.

As a result, I am only interested in backing names further down the board. At this point in the preseason, the price tags on Los Angeles Dodgers two-way star Shohei Ohtani (+6600) and Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Brandon Woodruff (+10000) stand out the most.

Thanks to his two-way ability, Ohtani is unquestionably the best player in the world and a minus-odds favorite to win a fourth consecutive MVP award and fifth overall. But Ohtani has always cared more about his craft as a pitcher, and this will be his first full season on the mound since 2023, his final campaign with the Angels.

Even on a bad team, Ohtani recorded 25 wins across his final two years. Counting his 14 losses, Ohtani earned a decision in 39 of his 51 starts in 2022 and 2023. Could more of those decisions turn into victories while pitching for the best team in baseball?

The Dodgers would prefer to be careful with Ohtani, employing a six-man rotation to keep their best player healthy for the postseason. But Ohtani is two years removed from stealing 59 bases simply because he wanted to, so there is only so much the team can slow him down. If Ohtani is motivated to achieve any pitching goals, this might be his best chance to do so.

While I’m also interested in Ohtani’s +4000 odds in the NL Cy Young market, this might be an even better flier. It’s rare to find a market where Ohtani is a +6600 long shot.

As for Woodruff’s case, the Brewers have demonstrated the ability to get the most out of their starting pitchers. Freddy Peralta finished fourth in MLB with 17 wins last year, while Milwaukee posted the best record in baseball.

After trading Peralta away this offseason, Woodruff is in line to be Milwaukee’s No. 1 starter. Woodruff, a two-time All-Star, made 12 starts last year in his return from a shoulder injury that kept him out of the 2024 season. Woodruff went 7-2 with a 3.20 ERA.

The Brewers, known for making decisions around their smaller budget, must anticipate that Woodruff will regain his form over a full season in 2025, as they are paying him more than $22 million after he accepted the qualifying offer. He has the second-highest salary on the team.

The Brewers and I are banking on a big year from Woodruff.

Past MLB Pitcher Wins Leaders