Every year for the past half-decade or so, I’ve used a largely ignored Statcast tool that eschews all the fancy numbers and creates an algorithmic player comp based on batted ball distribution, barrel rate, strikeout rates, and walk rates. I’ve found that year after year, this helps me find both sleepers and busts that others overlook. While, as usual, predicting busts is easier because of entropy, some of the sleepers I’ve found helped me win leagues, with last year’s standout sleepers being Tyler Soderstrom and Ben Rice. Not bad. Of course, the misses do look bad in retrospect.
There’s no easy way to find the best comps, but I have my messy system that works. Basically, I take a few of the best hitters and look down their list of comps until I find a player that sticks out, and then look at their comps and start digging around. I take a lot of factors into account to make sure the comps actually matter, such as playing time, factoring in speed (which is not accounted for in these comps), injury risk, platoons, and more. But I think I’ve learned a lot from my mistakes in past years, so this year I’m ready to make all new mistakes. On to the sleepers list!
Oneil Cruz (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates) – ADP: 96
Top Comps: James Wood, Riley Greene, Nick Kurtz, Bryan Reynolds
Considering that I’ve been avoiding him like the plague at a Top-100 ADP in early drafts, I’m just as surprised as you are. But then again, maybe it shouldn’t be shocking that a Statcast-based algorithm still loves Cruz, even if it isn’t directly weighing his insane raw exit velo. Despite still providing fantasy goodness with 20 home runs and 38 stolen bases, Cruz had a mess of a season with a calamitous second half, hitting just .177 with a hideous 56 wRC+ over that period. In the end, he had a .200 average with only 62 runs, 61 RBI, and an 86 wRC+ in 544 plate appearances overall, becoming a part-timer even on lowly Pittsburgh, with a terrible 32% strikeout rate. So why the optimism?
Well, for one, he still hits the ball very hard when he does hit it…and is a 32% strikeout rate really even that horrible? It’s the same as James Wood (ADP: 27) and just one point above Riley Greene and Nick Kurtz. And maybe he’s not so hopeless…his 13% swinging-strike rate is not terrible! The main culprit is his passivity at the plate, with a terrible 57% Z-Swing rate last year. Dude, you crush the ball, be aggressive! But I have trouble believing in a .261 BABIP for a fast player who also has the fourth-best hard-hit rate and seventh-best barrel rate in the league. Based on that package, he should be among BABIP leaders! He also has more wheels than his comps, which are only for the bat and don’t consider baserunning at all. Just imagine if he hits for the power/average combo of Greene or Wood with 25-38 stolen bases (sure, it may be a peak stolen-base attempt rate, but more hits = more opportunities). Projections all do seem to expect at least some kind of bounceback, though most experts consider him an absolute bust pick at a sub-100 ADP due to the risk, as well as a lot of makeup issues on the field…not only a lack of applied hustle, but also over-applied mascara.
The biggest downside is that he is so awful against lefties that he might be (and probably should be) platooned again, unless his terrible second half and platoons were more related to injury than previously believed. But hey, if that happens, at least that should help the batting average, and it’s not like those poor quality at-bats meaningfully boosted his counting stats anyway. With skills growth plus some expected BABIP normalization, he could basically be Elly De La Cruz just with 20-30 fewer points of batting average if most things break right, making him an intriguing boom-bust pick if you drafted high batting average early, you’re gunning for an overall, or in a shallow format. But the projections expecting him to only play in 125 games make me worry the actual production, especially in runs, will come up short despite gaudy rate stats. Still, if he falls past pick 115, I’m targeting him for sure, though the next guy on this list I prefer for the higher floor.
George Springer (OF, Toronto Blue Jays) – ADP: 103
Top Comps: Ben Rice, Corey Seager, Michael Busch, Juan Soto
Keep your clothes on, but I hope these comps serve as a Springer Awakening. Yes, I know the caveats—the years of disappointing production, the fact he’s 36 years old, that he was clearly playing hurt in the World Series, yadda yadda. But his comps include two in the 100 range, one at 60, and a top-five player, and he’s still going just outside the Top 100 (103). Don’t forget that out of these elite pure hitters, Springer is the fastest and stole 18 bases, more than all of them but Soto (which I still don’t fully understand). While he is old, he has been remarkably healthy throughout his career, and while it could start falling apart like Marcus Semien last year, he’s probably a lower injury risk than many younger contemporaries.
How’d he have this breakout? Well, it seems he finally geared up for barrels with a career-best 16% rate, but still managed to maintain a great sub-20% strikeout rate. It’s important to note that regression is basically inevitable, given that any mid-career breakout year is far from the norm, as well as the age. Even with that, his Steamer projections suggest he should produce like a top-50 player, and I think that if he can stay healthy next year, even 70% of the 2025 Springer will be a screaming value for the well-rounded production he can provide, and that’s not even thinking about the run production. That said, projections are less accurate after age 33, and there’s a lot of downwards pressure on both projections and health at age 37…just think of how many elite hitters you can name at that age. Yeah.
Bryan Reynolds (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates) – ADP: 201
Top Comps: James Wood, Roman Anthony, Willson Contreras, Ramón Laureano
If you had him in 2025, Bryan sure did Reyn on your parade. And now he’s one of the olds. I have been fairly anti-Reynolds for years, just because I found him underwhelming, but now I think he may be finally priced to buy. Now, to be fair, given that Wood and Anthony are not quite the studs from a 2025 production point of view that their ADP would suggest, both are candidates for my bust list. But there are positives to this perennial perfunctorily passable Pittsburgh Pirate.
The brightest points are that those comps, which are based entirely on the past year’s production instead of projection, suggest 2025 wasn’t as terrible as meets the eye. For one, despite a launch angle that decreased for the fourth consecutive year (down to a nearly Yandy-ian 7 degrees), his launch-angle sweetspot rate of 38% is still 85th percentile, which helps explain why he managed a solid 10% barrel rate. Although a lower launch angle does increase exit velocity, it’s still good to see that at 30 years old, he actually set a career-best 114 mph MaxEV and 91 mph exit velocity. Pretty impressive given his season started with a shoulder issue that kept him from playing the outfield. DH penalty is real, right?
But what about the strikeouts? 27% is indeed the worst full-season mark of his career, but that’s baked into these comps (they only use raw strikeout and walk rate) already, and I think a lot of it was bad luck. Why? Because his 2025 plate disciplines are virtually identical to his impressively consistent marks from 2022-2024, with the same 13% swinging-strike rate and solid 26% CSW rate, which are both actually improvements from 2024. To echo Jeff Zimmerman, maybe there’s a link to the lack of stolen bases and the shoulder injury, and with an improved offense behind him, he still can absolutely have a .270 25/10 season that will wow nobody but provide solid and reliable value at a point in the draft where few decent names are left that aren’t in a platoon. Even if it’s .260, that’s still a tad better than the mean projection for Seiya Suzuki (ADP: 88).
Andrew Vaughn (1B, Milwaukee Brewers) ADP: 288
Top Comps: Jorge Polanco, Manny Machado, Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino
It’s not often you see a player with two top-25 picks going at pick 290 on average (NFBC). Then again, midway through last year, he was dumped by the White Sox, so I get it. Vaughn was a total dud in the first half before being one of the sneaky hitter pickups of the summer after his bat seemed to come to life in Milwaukee. Granted, he underperformed his expected stats massively in the first half, so it could have been positive regression. Still, given his top seven Statcast Sliders are all red, being 75th percentile or better in xwOBA, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and sweetspot rate…so why is his ADP so darn low?
Well, a big part is likely the Steamer projections (those are the only ones currently out that show up on Fangraphs), which ignore his strong expected stats and focus on the track record of mediocrity. And to some degree, I get it…even with his 2025 bounceback, his ISO of .161 has hardly changed since his 2021 debut, and his wRC+ last year of 99 was just under his career mark of 101 (not great, Bob). Still, I think it’s important to note that he did three things last year that broke that mold: he hit for a career-best barrel rate, he cut his strikeout rate, and he also substantially cut his soft-contact percentage. He should also bat fifth behind a strong core, and I think he’s still a steal at this ADP, which is 300 or higher in some other formats.
Dominic Canzone (OF, Seattle Mariners) – ADP: 338
Top Comps: Brett Baty, Addison Barger, Tyler Soderstrom, Ramón Laureano
Yes, I know it’s a bit mad on the surface to take a sample from less than a half-season, much of it in a platoon, and determine this 28-year-old journeyman is a breakout pick. But all doubts aside, now let’s enter the Yes-He-Canzone. While the top comp may be underwhelming, he’s still before the top 260, and two of the other comps are top-200 picks, with Soderstrom being a top 80. Not bad for a hitter going at #338. Now, I get why the skepticism. His rate stats looked good, but the reality was they were aided by him being more of a matchup/platoon play down the stretch, which was never really given the fair shake I felt he deserved.
It’s a pretty small sample also, compared to the others on this list, with just 269 plate appearances to draw from, and I’ve erred in the past from concluding too much from a small sample. So why am I throwing caution to the wind here? Well, one reason—which player similarity doesn’t directly account for—is his fantastic and largely ignored MaxEV he set this year at 116 mph, which was 96th percentile, which seems to help explain his excellent batted-ball quality and make me more confident that the previously quad-A type at age 28 didn’t merely have a lucky sample. While he’s not known for defense, he does have a strong arm, and I’m hoping this year he will carve out a larger role while hitting .250 with 25+ homers, and, if he can retain the strikeout rate and barrel rate improvement, an outside shot at .270 with 30 homers. Seems like a pretty good gamble going after Jesus Sanchez and Zach McKinstry if you ask me.
Tyler O’Neill (OF, Baltimore Orioles) – ADP: 379
Top Comps: Seiya Suzuki, Cal Raleigh, Michael Busch, Byron Buxton
I guess this year, I should also draft Shaq since I’m going all-in on names that sound like O’Neal. I’m not going to lie, I totally ignored O’Neill in early drafts; since he’s had so many neck issues, I’d assumed he must have angered a magical owl. But after discovering his comps, I’m trying to get into more drafts to acquire as many shares as I can. As much of a veteran as he may seem, he’s still just 30, and I bet if his batting average were one point higher (from .199), he’d get more love. Wanna hear something crazy? Remember his strong 31-homer, .241 season in 2024? Well, his xStats from that year (.213 xBA, .480 xSLG) were actually worse than his smaller-sample 2025 xStats (.247 xAVG, .523 xSLG).
His Steamer projection for 15 homers probably helped keep his cost low, though I’d expect it’ll rise with TheBatX’s more rosy projection for 21 homers and a .233 AVG in 404 plate appearances. If you got that at pick 379, you’d be thrilled. Still, I think that much like one of his comps, Buxton, if he could stay healthy and maintain his much-improved 24% strikeout rate with his strong 10% walk rate and 16% barrel rate, he could be in for a big renaissance season in which he hits over .250 with 30+ home runs. After all, those rates I just mentioned are quite similar to George Springer’s 2025 (plus 5% strikeout rate). And hey, much like Springer, with a 74th-percentile sprint speed, there’s always a chance he starts stealing bases again…but in his case, like Buxton, maybe just focus on staying healthy. He definitely could be 2026’s Diet Buxton, though, and unlike Buxton, there’s no risk at this price.
Yoán Moncada (3B, Los Angeles Angels) – ADP: 574
Top Comps: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Rafael Devers, Ronald Acuña Jr., Wyatt Langford
He’s not quite dead yet, so don’t call him a Moncadaver. I’ll admit this article was ready to go before I stumbled upon these comps and just HAD to add them in…I mean, they’re better than Reynolds, no? Sure, Moncada no longer has the blazing speed of three of these names (though I’m old enough to remember when he did), but clearly, with these comps, he has been doing something right, and it’s gone largely ignored.
After two quite disappointing years in 2022-2023 and an injury washout in 2024, he was quietly actually pretty darn good for the Angels in 2025 (at least compared to Anthony Rendon), hitting .234/.336/.448 with 12 home runs in 289 plate appearances, good for a 117 wRC+. Re-signing in Los Angeles was probably the best possible thing for his value as he should play fairly often, and he’s not as washed up as you might think…he’s still just 30, folks! The biggest change he made was posting the best barrel rate of his whole career at 14%. So it’s odd he actually overperformed with an xBA of .222 and xSLG of .410, but I’m basically ignoring them since I can’t find a flaw in the process. He was more aggressive on strikes than ever before, with an excellent 65% Z-Swing rate, and he also had a career-best PullAir%, an elite rate of 26%. Pretty good! I think he’s a seriously underrated source of late power at a weak position, with even more hidden value in OBP formats.
Will Benson (OF, Cincinnati Reds) – ADP: 678!!!
Top Comps: Austin Riley, Zach Neto, Mickey Moniak, Ramón Laureano
Free Will Benson! Yes, I am the only one leading this charge, and I technically am still in charge of the Free Erubiel Durazo campaign. Free Erubiel Durazo of his 30-year mortgage! Benson’s ADP has actually been falling further as they jettisoned Jake Fraley, and Austin Hays is gone too, but they acquired Dane Myers and JJ Bleday to replace him, so Roster Resource has Benson listed as a full-on backup. Good thing his competition is, well, Dane Myers and JJ Bleday.
I honestly DO NOT GET AT ALL why Benson hasn’t gotten any roses, even from the deep league experts I admire. Which is why I have taken him in every DC this year, and my unofficial bold prediction is that he will finish as a top-40 outfielder. Have we really given up on a 27-year-old who made huge improvements in a small sample last year? His .226/.273/.435 line with 12 homers and two stolen bases in 253 plate appearances wasn’t pretty, but there were big improvements under the hood. He was quite unlucky with an xBA of .264 and xSLG of .495, which completely flips the script…and that ignores that players typically overperform their expected stats playing half their games at Great American Smallpark.
The Austin Riley and Zach Neto comps may seem insane, but Benson, granted, in his platoon role, rocked a superb 15% barrel rate, a 56% hard-hit rate, an excellent 43% fly-ball rate, and a 43% pull rate, and most notably, a solid 27% strikeout rate. Sure, that’s not great for most players, but that’s a big improvement for someone who has never had below a 31% mark and had a 39% strikeout rate the year before. He didn’t get much better at making contact, but he took the Corey Seager approach of getting way more aggressive on strikes with a fantastic 75% Z-Swing rate leading to a league-average 27% CSW rate that’s a lot nicer than his ugly 16% swinging-strike rate. I think Moniak is the best realistic comp, as a guy who is also likely a platoon player who was a forgotten man, but provided streaky but overall solid value thanks to his great home park and a handful of stolen bases. And hey, he could still bring more than that…his sprint speed actually improved and was a career-best at 94th percentile, baby. Let’s see if we can melt glass with our Benson Burner.