Sport: MLB
It’s all about maximizing value. That’s the optimistic scenario. Each draft choice is an opportunity to improve your team against the mean. However, that’s the upside scenario for the potential third base busts you’re going to read about in the paragraphs ahead.
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At the bare minimum, you want to draft a player who produces value at least commensurate with their ADP. What we don’t want is to draft a player and have them not return value even close to their acquisition cost. The goal here is to help you avoid drafting busts.
Each position has a pre-ordained set of expectations. Ultimately, at the end of the day, we are only judged on the total production compiled. However, we generally lean on specific positions for power and run production. Third base is one of those positions. Drafting a player that can’t, at the least, return league average production, sets back your roster construction.
As we prepare for the 2026 fantasy baseball season, let’s take a look at three third base busts that I’m looking to avoid. For multiple reasons, they’ll likely leave you deficient.
2026 Third Base Busts
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
Had the New York Mets not jumped in to sign Bo Bichette, this likely wouldn’t be an option. If Bichette was heading to Philadelphia, it’s likely that Alec Bohm would have been the biggest loser in terms of playing time. And that tells us what the Phillies are truly thinking when it comes to Bohm.
That’s not to say Bohm had a bad 2025, but he certainly left something to be desired. In 120 games, Bohm hit just 11 home runs while finishing with only 59 RBI. From a third base perspective, that simply doesn’t get the job done. Bohm did hit .287, but it’s just too much power to make up with other bats in your lineup. That, coupled with the playing time concerns, makes Bohm a third base bust.
From a batted ball perspective, Bohm also saw his ISO decrease from .168 to .123 last season. At his peak, Bohm hit 20 home runs in 2023, but his profile doesn’t really support that. Bohm had an average launch angle of just 6.8 degrees last season with only a 6.2% barrel rate. A 50% ground ball rate doesn’t do Bohm any favors, and neither does his 28.4% fly ball rate.
Bohm had 97 RBI in 2023 and 2024, so it’s not like he hasn’t experienced success. But there’s also enough to keep us away.
Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins
Not to state the obvious, but the big thing here is health. The 106 games that Royce Lewis played last season were a career high for him. However, his 13 home runs were the fewest he has ever hit in a season.
In each of his last three seasons, Lewis’ ISO has been on a steep decline. It’s gone from .240, to .219, to .152. It’s no surprise that Lewis finished with a career low in home runs. Additionally, his 8.7% barrel rate and .388 slugging percentage didn’t do him any favors.
Lewis hit just .237 with 52 RBI and 36 runs scored in what was an underwhelming season. While Lewis still has youth on his side, he hasn’t shown that he’s capable of reaching what we thought was his upside and potential. At this point, we shouldn’t be drafting Lewis as anything but what he is.
Caleb Durbin, Milwaukee Brewers
The overarching theme at third base is that we need to generate power. That’s nothing that Caleb Durbin is capable of. Last season, in 136 games, Durbin hit .256 with just 11 home runs, 53 RBI, and 60 runs scored.
Durbin had a barrel rate of just 4% along with a 26.9% hard hit rate and .130 ISO. Based on those metrics, the fact that Durbin hit even 11 home runs was a pleasant surprise. Even his .387 slugging percentage left something to be desired, as evidenced by his .354 xSLG.
With Jett Williams now in the fold, among other pieces, there is the concern that Durbin reverts to more of a utility player. His lack of power leaves something to be desired. It’s also unclear whether or not his stolen base upside will make up for it. Despite consistently stealing around 30 bases in the minor leagues, Durbin dropped down to 18 last season. If he can’t bring that total up, then Durbin truly becomes a bust.
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