With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training in less than two weeks, Brandon Woodruff and Quinn Priester look like the only true locks for spots in the Brewers’ rotation on opening day. Jacob Misiorowski and Chad Patrick are not guarantees, but their performances last year leave them well-positioned for the third and fourth slots.
After those four, the club has plenty of young candidates for the fifth spot, but each with limited track records and, in some cases, concerns surrounding their arsenals as starting pitchers. Here are some potential developments that could separate a few arms from the rest of the pack next month.
Of the contenders for the fifth rotation spot, Henderson may have the most impressive big-league resume to date, pitching to a 1.78 ERA, 3.20 SIERA, and 99 DRA- with a 33.3% strikeout rate in five starts last season. However, he profiles worse as a starter than most others do.
That sample showed that his fastball and changeup combination can rack up whiffs against big-league hitters who haven’t seen him much, but those two pitches are not enough to effectively work multiple turns through an order. In those five outings, the Brewers only let Henderson face nine hitters a third time through, largely because his stuff was already less deceptive by the second turn.
TTO
BF
Whiff%
Chase%
wOBA
xwOBA
1st
45
27.2%
37.2%
.189
.273
2nd
45
26.4%
29.9%
.337
.368
3rd
9
35.0%
21.1%
.077
.089
The same ability that makes Henderson’s fastball and changeup so good also makes it difficult for him to develop other pitches. As a pronator, he excels at generating pure backspin and sidespin by turning his wrist in toward his body at release, but he struggles to get his hand to the outside of the baseball to spin a breaking pitch.
So far, Henderson has worked on a cutter and a short gyro slider, but Adam McCalvy reported in December that he spent the winter reviving the curveball he threw as an amateur. While Henderson is unlikely to get to a true curveball shape as a low-slot pronator, trying to get to the front of the ball at release could give him an offering with more consistent glove-side movement, supplying the balance his arsenal needs as a starter.
Whereas Henderson’s arsenal needs more diversity, Sproat’s six-pitch mix can keep hitters off balance and doesn’t need much more development. That could give him a leg up on his peers, but he’ll have to demonstrate in camp that his command is big-league ready.
FanGraphs currently tags Sproat with just 35-grade present-day command, and his walk rates in two minor-league seasons were lackluster for a starting pitcher. While the Brewers typically avoid forcing their pitchers into the same box mechanically, Chris Hook and the pitching development crew could tweak Sproat’s unorthodox delivery to get his hand more on time when his front foot lands.
Will the Brewers Prefer a Left-Hander?
Woodruff, Priester, Misiorowski, and Patrick are all right-handed, as are many of the prospects behind them. If the Brewers would rather round out their rotation with a southpaw, it could boost Robert Gasser’s case for the final spot. Like Sproat, Gasser has a complete starter’s arsenal, and he has better command. If the club sticks to its usual approach, lefty swingmen Aaron Ashby and DL Hall will also be stretched out in Arizona and could make rotation bids.
There may need to be more matchup-related factors at play for handedness to swing the decision. The Brewers open the season by playing the Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays. While the White Sox have a few decent left-handed bats, namely the recently signed Munetaka Murakami, many of the Rays’ best hitters are right-handed.
Veteran Additions
Pat Murphy pushed the front office to add veteran Jose Quintana last spring, and even though the Brewers are deeper in the rotation than they were at this time a year ago, he has already voiced concerns about starting depth in the wake of the Freddy Peralta trade. The Brewers also signed Tyler Alexander at the start of camp and could make a similar move again.
In addition to Quintana, Zack Littell, Tyler Anderson, and Patrick Corbin are among the veteran innings-eaters who remain unsigned. The Brewers also developed a positive relationship with Jordan Montgomery, who was still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery when the Brewers acquired him with Shelby Miller at last year’s trade deadline. Should the sides agree to a reunion, his reported timeline may not put him on pace to open the year on an active roster.
