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There’s definitely a pattern to what the Giants have done and, more controversially, what they haven’t done this odd offseason.
Maybe there’s an outline of an actual plan that goes beyond this season and past any potential new labor deal in 2027 (or whenever it happens), gets clear of the present dynasty in the south and perhaps into a whole new era of Giants baseball.
Call it: Zen and the art of constructively waiting out the Dodgers’ apex years.
Also, to be clear, I’m mostly just guessing at the intentions of Buster Posey & Co. this offseason; I haven’t heard any of this from anybody in the organization, nor would I expect them to openly discuss it.
But there are obvious clues. There’s the presumption that Posey, Greg Johnson, and Zack Minasian aren’t just throwing pennies into a wishing well — and buying San Francisco theater houses — randomly as the Dodgers, Mets, Cubs, and Phillies load up with talent.
There’s a sense that nobody’s going to go billion-for-billion with the Dodgers and that the financial system the Dodgers have mercilessly gamed the last few years will almost certainly be altered in some significant ways when the current labor deal expires after this season.
There’s the realization that the Giants already have committed a lot of money to their payroll. They currently have MLB’s 13th-highest commitment in 2026, which includes a $17 million deferred payment to Blake Snell for his cameo stint way back in 2024 that I’ve heard Giants people grumble about several times ever since. The Giants have the 12th-highest commitment for 2027, and seventh highest for 2028 — all according to Spotrac.
Those are the big, sweeping parts of this. They make more sense when you go through the piece-by-piece decisions this offseason, which probably was capped off with the deals for Harrison Bader last week and Luis Arráez over the weekend.
So here’s what the Giants have done this offseason:
• Continued to build up their farm system with a recent run of paying out millions to sign top international players — three promising shortstops in the last three signing periods.
Add that to last year’s No. 1 pick Gavin Kilen and this year’s upcoming No. 4 overall pick; going into 2027, the Giants should have a very intriguing set of players at the top of their prospect list.
• Signed moderate deals (all under $25 million, none longer than two years, none costing a compensatory pick) with Arráez, Bader, Adrian Houser, Tyler Mahle, and a few others to help fill areas of extreme need.
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Key point emphasized: Posey and Minasian have added these players without any future cost of draft picks.
• Fired Bob Melvin, eating a year on his contract, and hired Tony Vitello straight out of college and paying his Tennessee buyout.
Managerial payments, like international signings, aren’t part of luxury-tax calculations. You pay whatever you want to pay and if it gives you a slight advantage, you should pay some more.
Here’s what the Giants haven’t done this offseason:
• Gotten anywhere near committing huge long-term money to any of the big free agents this season, several of whom ended up with — surprise! — the two-time defending champion Dodgers.
Bader and Arráez, two mid-career journeymen who help the Giants at specific positions in specific ways without a dollar committed beyond 2027, fit the pattern perfectly.
Left-handed starter Framber Valdez is still available, but unless his price tag goes way down, he’d add tons of long-term money to the payroll and would cost a comp pick. Plus, I doubt Posey of all people is overly enthusiastic about handing out a $100-million-plus contract to a pitcher who may or may not have purposely crossed up (opens in new tab) and sent a fastball into the chest of his catcher in a fit of pique last summer.
• Traded away Bryce Eldridge or any other top prospects for pitching help or to bolster any other position.
• Given much of an indication that they’re ready to directly take on — or even come close to challenging — the two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers this season.
I don’t expect Giants fans to jump for joy over that last part. Actually, I know most Giants fans are understandably bothered by Posey’s lack of aggression about putting together enough stars to compete with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Mookie Betts, and I can keep typing names but will stop for brevity’s sake.
The Giants are already paying big dollars to Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, Robbie Ray, Logan Webb, and others this season. Why not push harder to make those dollars count by surrounding them with the best players possible?
But the money already committed could be an answer itself. The Giants played terribly for a big chunk of 2025 with these guys and still finished 81-81, just two games out of the NL’s final wild-card spot.
The Giants probably haven’t gotten any worse this offseason. In fact, if Bader is healthy, he should be a solid upgrade in center over Jung Hoo Lee, who should be a decent enough upgrade over the grab-bag group that played right field last season.
Meanwhile, who knows how long Arráez will start at second base — I can imagine Giants pitchers getting a bit exasperated after a barrage of ground balls slip through the right side of the infield — but if he can hang in there, Arráez should be a contact-machine, as always.
What will the Giants do if Houser and Mahle can’t hold down rotation spots, if Vitello can’t patch together a reliable bullpen, and if Arráez and Bader get hurt or go into funks?
Well, it’s not like Posey and Minasian could’ve fixed all those problems even if the Giants were willing to spend a lot more this offseason. And if Eldridge can hit major-league pitching this season, the Giants might have their best lineup in a long time.
Or if Eldridge needs more minor-league seasoning, he’ll join Josuar Gonzalez, Kilen, Jhonny Level, Luis Hernández, and the No. 4 pick in the Giants’ system this season, which is the most intriguing group of Giants prospects since Posey, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, and Brandon Crawford were moving through the system.
Top prospect Bryce Eldridge was the Giants’ first-round draft choice in 2023. | Source: Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press
The Giants never want to copy the A’s except in one way: The A’s have, once again, amassed an abundance of young position-player talent that the Giants have lacked until now.
The A’s young stars: Tyler Soderstrom, Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler, Zack Gelof, Shea Langeliers, and, most notably, potential future MVP Nick Kurtz, who was the No. 4 pick in 2024, I will note.
This is the kind of supply line that Farhan Zaidi was supposed to set up for the Giants and never could get across the finish line.
But now the Giants have some things lined up. Even with Devers and the other big contracts, the Giants’ 2026 payroll is about $100 million less than the Dodgers’, a gap that widens to more than $150 million in 2027 and 2028.
If a new deal imposes a cap or strict punishment for overages starting in 2027, the Dodgers will be the focus of it. They might have to shed some payroll and bow out of most free-agent chases. And thanks to this moderate offseason, the Giants probably will be under that potential bar.
So they might be stronger candidates to land Tarik Skubal or Bo Bichette (if he opts out) in the next free-agent cycle. Maybe old friend Kevin Gausman will be interested in a return engagement.
Or maybe the Giants have an eye on a Japanese star ready to come to MLB in 2027 or 2028 — when the Dodgers’ spending power might be extremely limited. Until then, the Giants have Webb, Devers, Ray, Chapman, Bader, Arráez, Houser, and others to go for a wild-card berth this season. It sure shouldn’t be out of reach.
Then when the new labor deal arrives, maybe we’ll see the true impact of this zen offseason, which probably wasn’t only about the Giants being frugal. It was also about them being aware of the moment. While also being frugal.