Matt Wallner has been a polarizing player since he debuted with the Twins. The organization has been cautious of his skill set, and some sections of the fanbase still have not bought in, despite nearly 1000 plate appearances of impact offense. After a down 2025, could a focus on reverting his approach lead to a bounce-back?

 

Twins fans shudder at Wallner’s offensive profile after a prolific stretch of all-or-nothing hitters over the last decade or so within the organization. His strikeouts have been high, and have admittedly given him significant problems at times in his career thus far, as he’s hit cold stretches that have gotten him demoted in some instances. While Wallner’s profile may limit his ceiling and lead to inconsistencies, it’s hard to argue with the overall body of work. Wallner has an .829 OPS in his career, which is 31% above the league average hitter since he debuted.

2025 was undoubtedly a down year for Wallner. His still-solid .776 OPS felt much worse to watch, as he struggled situationally and never put together any extended stretches of production. Many fans felt justified in their doubt about Wallner’s swing-and-miss profile, wondering if the league had finally caught up with him and figured out how to take advantage of his lack of contact more consistently. While it was Wallner’s worst season since he debuted, his whiffs didn’t play the role many people think they did.

 

Wallner’s down season didn’t have just one major component to blame; rather, many smaller factors came together to cause his struggles. His maximum and average exit velocities were the lowest of his career. His percentage of pop-ups increased. His performance against fastballs, which was arguably his biggest strength in his first few seasons, cratered to a sub-200 expected batting average, with his expected slugging percentage following suit.

 

You’ll notice that an increase in strikeout rate wasn’t cited. That’s because Wallner’s 29.1% strikeout rate was comfortably the lowest of his career. His whiff rate against fastballs declined, which opposes the narrative that pitchers simply found a hole in his swing that could be exploited with velocity. This was the case for all pitch types in 2025. With runners in scoring position, where plenty of fans recognize Wallner struggled, he struck out 24% of the time, a sharp decline from 35% in his stellar 2024 season.

Matt Wallner looks like a player who was trying to shift away from his high swing and miss ways last season, despite the fact that they’ve made him an elite hitter at times. Being just a bit more tentative in decision-making and focusing more on contact than on impacting the ball could certainly lead to a snowball effect, with many small declines combining to produce poor overall performance.

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It’s never this simple, but Wallner may benefit from a return to his hard swinging ways in 2025. His bat speed notably declined in 2025. Perhaps this was the result of an intended shift in approach, or perhaps Wallner’s hamstring injury in early 2025 affected him all season. Either way, his 2025 performance suggests he’s a better hitter when he’s reaching his peak bat speed, so he can cause maximum damage when he makes contact, even if it results in more swing and miss.

Would you like to see Matt Wallner return to his 100th percentile hard swinging ways in 2026? Are the strikeouts simply too much of a trade-off? Let us know below!