DETROIT — An arbitration hearing that could have massive repercussions for the future of Major League Baseball player pay is set for Wednesday in Arizona, league sources told The Athletic. That’s when the Detroit Tigers and Tarik Skubal are scheduled to make their cases to a three-person arbitration panel that will decide the 2026 salary for the reigning back-to-back American League Cy Young Award winner.
Provided Skubal and the Tigers do not reach an agreement beforehand, the hearing will determine whether Skubal makes $32 million or $19 million in 2026. The Tigers and Skubal, represented by agent Scott Boras, filed $13 million apart, easily the largest gulf in the history of MLB’s arbitration process. Arbitrators cannot award a middle-ground number, but the sides could still settle on one themselves.
Skubal’s ask of $32 million would set a record for arbitration salary, surpassing Juan Soto’s $31 million in 2024, and also stand as a major victory for players going through the arbitration process. That victory would come in a time of greater labor uncertainty, with MLB’s Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire Dec. 1.
If the three-person arbitration panel settles on $19 million, Skubal would be paid less than David Price’s arbitration record for a pitcher — the $19.75 million Price received in 2015.
The panel is likely to use the $25.5 million midpoint as a measuring stick. If the panel deems Skubal worth less than $25.5 million, the Tigers would likely win the case. If the panel concludes Skubal to be worth even $1 more than $25.5 million, Skubal’s side would be victorious.
MLB players become eligible for arbitration after they’ve spent three seasons in the major leagues, or in the case of some elite performers, two-plus seasons. It is through arbitration that most players make seven-figure salaries for the first time in their careers.
Most arbitration-eligible players do not go to hearings, instead settling on a salary with their team. When the sides can’t reach an agreement, however, they both submit a proposed salary figure by a deadline each winter. Come February, the arbitrators hear arguments from both the player’s camp and management. The team is backed by the commissioner’s office, the player by the Players Association, and hearings can grow contentious.
The process relies on comparisons to other players who have spent a similar amount of time as big leaguers, which makes Skubal’s case particularly important. A salary of $32 million would represent an unprecedented raise of nearly $22 million from the $10.15 million he made last season, and could affect what players make — and clubs pay — for years to come.
Negotiations between Boras and the Tigers were brief before this year’s Jan. 8 deadline to avoid a hearing. The Tigers, per team and league sources, initially offered $19.8 million — a figure that would have set the record for highest arbitration salary from a pitcher and also surpassed Jacob deGrom’s $9.6 million record for largest raise in arbitration history. The club might have been willing to go higher had negotiations continued.
Instead, there was little back-and-forth between the two sides before the filing deadline. The Tigers then reverted their number to $19 million in their official filing, while Skubal and Boras filed at $32 million, based on Boras’ argument that MLB’s CBA allows for fifth-year players to compare themselves to any player in the league.
Given Skubal’s two consecutive years of dominance, the case could break arbitration precedent, creating a higher ceiling for star players. Arbitration salaries for pitchers have generally lagged behind position players. Price’s $19.75 million record has stood for 11 years. That number would be worth close to $27 million today, factoring in inflation.
The Tigers, meanwhile, likely looked closely at cases such as Price’s and deGrom’s, using history and precedent for their more conventional $19 million filing. Price might have never achieved Skubal’s level of dominance, but he was more successful early in his career, worth 23 bWAR compared to Skubal’s 17.9 at the same points in their careers. When deGrom earned his record $9.6 million raise, he was coming off a 9.4 bWAR season where he posted a 1.70 ERA. Last season with the Tigers, Skubal had a 2.21 ERA and was worth 6.5 WAR.
Some players favor the arbitration process because it provides them a chance to negotiate salaries early in their careers. The system can also limit earnings for high-end players who have yet to achieve the six years of service time necessary to reach free agency. Zack Wheeler, Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow and deGrom are the only active pitchers set to make more than $32 million in 2026. Skubal was better than all of them in 2025.
The Tigers operate as a “file-and-trial” team, an industry term that means they historically do not negotiate one-year deals after the filing deadline. Boras, meanwhile, has signaled the Skubal camp would be open to further negotiations.
The two sides have only two more days to reconcile and strike an agreement that would avoid the theater of a formal hearing, where teams generally argue against the value of their own players.
Given the stakes and the gap between the two sides, it might take Wednesday’s hearing to resolve one of the most crucial plot points of this MLB offseason.
Players remain arbitration eligible until they have accumulated six seasons of service time, when they can become free agents and sign with any team. With more than five years of service time, this is Skubal’s last turn through arbitration.