He doesn’t have to answer this question for a while, but at some point, Craig Counsell will need to make the call: Who will be bumped from the Chicago Cubs’ rotation when Justin Steele is ready to come back from elbow surgery?
Steele is, in his words, “ahead of schedule” and moving “full steam ahead” in his rehab, but an early return is not happening. At the Winter Meetings, Counsell was looking at some point in the first half, barring a setback. Last month, Steele told reporters that he’s thinking long term as well. He’s assuming that his surgeon, Dr. Keith Meister, will recommend a cap on his 2026 workload. A later start changes the goal to being available for the second half and postseason.
“There’s going to be some kind of innings limit, so there’s definitely some comfortability knowing that I don’t have to rush,” Steele said after a throwing session at Elite Baseball Training, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian.
So, Counsell and the Cubs’ front office have time on this. But let’s address the question now, anyway: Whenever Steele is medically cleared and built up, who goes? The choice will probably be easy, because so many things go wrong with a pitching staff during a season. The Cubs could be faced with making one of these four simple moves:
Replace an injured guy.
The Cubs’ projected Opening Day rotation is, in some order, Matthew Boyd, recently acquired Edward Cabrera, Cade Horton, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon. Odds are that there will be attrition among this group, same as there was among last year’s group. Steele went down in April, Imanaga (hamstring strain) got hurt in early May, Taillon (calf and groin strains) hit the injured list in July and August, and Cabrera (elbow sprain) missed three weeks in September for the Miami Marlins.
Replace the guy who replaced an injured guy.
Counting Steele, the rotation could go nine deep. Colin Rea would be the next man up if one of the top five goes down. He’s now the swingman after making 27 starts last year. If more injuries hit, Chicago could turn to Javier Assad (seven starts in 2025) and/or Ben Brown (15 starts last year). Assad was mostly effective in his limited duty. Brown lost his rotation spot and was optioned to Triple-A Iowa last June. He came back a month later and switched to long relief. If the Cubs stretch Jordan Wicks back out and fast-rising prospect Jaxon Wiggins takes a big step forward in the spring, the number of starting candidates could grow to double digits.
Replace an ineffective guy.
Brown had a 6.13 ERA/4.14 FIP when he was sent down. Horton is the only pitcher in this year’s projected rotation with minor-league options, but after he dominated in the second half last year, would the Cubs give him extra time to work things out in the majors if he regresses hard? A vet who’s getting hammered would have to shift to the ‘pen or land on the IL, assuming the Cubs forgo an early-season trade or surprise DFA.
Replace no one and go to a six-man rotation.
This could be a necessity or a best-of-all-worlds solution, depending on when Steele comes back. If he returns within the first two months, Counsell could back off his starters during a heavy portion of the schedule: the Cubs are looking at a stretch of 42 games in 45 days from April 17 through May 31. If Steele returns in June, the starters could get extra rest following that gauntlet.
The bottom line? As with most thorny issues in baseball, the question of how to make room for a healthy Justin Steele will answer itself when the time comes.