CLEVELAND, Ohio — The numbers don’t lie – but they might not tell the whole truth either. That’s the central tension as the Guardians enter 2025 facing some of the most pessimistic statistical projections in baseball, despite coming off another American League Central Division championship season.
As revealed on the Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast, MLB.com has positioned the Guardians as the team most “trending in the wrong direction,” based largely upon Fangraphs projections that have them finishing 76-86 and in fourth place in the division behind the Tigers, Royals, and Twins.
“They’ve listed as trending in the wrong direction based a lot on the fact that they did spend the entire offseason only building up their bullpen and not adding to their offense,” noted Joe Noga when introducing the projections.
The statistical reasoning is straightforward enough. Cleveland did little to improve an offense that ranked among the league’s worst in 2025, while division rivals made more significant additions. The projection system gives the Guardians just a 14.1% chance of making the playoffs and a microscopic 0.4% shot at winning the World Series.
But there’s a fundamental disconnect between what the algorithms see and what Cleveland has consistently proven about itself over the past decade. As Paul Hoynes pointed out, “They’ve won the division three of the last four years, six of the last 10 years, and not every one of those years have they been favored, especially last year.”
This is where the limitations of statistical modeling become apparent. Algorithms can account for projected player performance, aging curves, and roster construction – but they struggle to quantify organizational culture, player development excellence, and the impact of leadership.
“There’s no way that a computer can account for the heart that Stephen Vogt injected into this team and made them believe in themselves and got the job done,” Noga argued, highlighting the transformational impact Cleveland’s manager had on the club’s performance in 2025.
This isn’t hometown optimism. It’s a recognition that certain organizations – Cleveland being a prime example – have demonstrated an ability to consistently outperform statistical projections through their player development system, organizational philosophy, and cohesive clubhouse culture.
As Hoynes summarized: “I mean, you can see why they would pick them to do this. They did absolutely nothing to help this offense, and it was one of the worst offenses in baseball last year. But the Guardians, they know how to do this. They have a system. They have a belief.”
That “system and belief” has translated to Cleveland fielding competitive teams despite constant roster turnover and payroll constraints that would cripple many other organizations. Their consistent ability to develop pitching, emphasize fundamentals, and maximize the value of their roster represents a competitive advantage that projection systems struggle to quantify.
None of this guarantees success in 2026. The concerns about Cleveland’s offense are legitimate, and the division has improved around them. But writing off the Guardians based purely on statistical projections ignores the consistent evidence that this organization operates with a formula that routinely exceeds mathematical expectations.
“Last year struck me a lot like this year,” Hoynes noted, drawing parallels to another season where Cleveland was counted out before eventually celebrating a division title.
To hear the complete discussion about Cleveland’s projections and why the Guardians might once again defy the algorithms, check out the full Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast where Joe Noga and Paul Hoynes break down what the projection systems are missing about this team.
Read the automated transcript of today’s podcast below. Because it’s an AI-generated transcript, it may contain errors and misspellings.
Podcast Transcript
Joe Noga: Welcome back to the Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast. I’m Joe Noga, joined by Paul Hoynes. Hoynsie, the Guardians with a bit of a surprise move I guess yesterday came out of nowhere. Signing left hander Kolby Allard to a minor league contract and with an invitation to spring training brings the number of non roster invitees in camp up to 27. As Allard Very familiar face to the Guardians spent the basically the entire season with them last year after they signed him on February 3rd of 2025. So almost a year to the day they signed him again. They, they cut him loose November after the season, but he made the club out of spring training, stayed with the the Guardians through early July when they DFA’d him in early July and then six days later he resigned with the club and spent the remainder of the season with them. I had a pretty solid year out of the bullpen. In fact Hoynsie, do you know who was the third, what pitcher posted the third highest WAR according to Baseball Reference on the Guardians roster last year?
Paul Hoynes: I have no idea Joe, but I think you’re going to tell me.
Joe Noga: It was Kobe Allard. He posted a 1.3 war according to baseball Reference that was just behind Joey Cantillo who was 1.4 and Gavin Williams who I believe was what, 3.8 war. You think about that now with all the performances that they had last year, all the sort of the pitching turnarounds for some of the starters and you know, Slade Cecconi, Tanner Bibee. No, it was Kolby Allard’s 1.3 WAR that was third highest on the club. He went 2 and 2 with a 2.63 ERA, 65 innings in 33 appearances and it was pretty solid. 42 strikeouts, 14 walks, 5 home runs allowed. But just a nice contributor, a good veteran presence in the clubhouse. Real good guy to talk with. You know. What do you think of the, the news that they re signed Kolby Allard and that they’re going to give him a chance to, to try and make the club again?
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, really happy for Joe. I thought he, as you said, I thought he played a huge role last year on that team, especially in the bullpen. He did anything they asked him to do. You know, he made two spot starts, that great outing against Detroit late in the season after he’d sat for 14 days and people kept telling him you’re going to get in a game and when you get in a game you’re going to have to make, you’re going to be faced with making a huge out and he did against the Tigers in a big game in September. You know, it’s a former number one pick of Atlanta, you know, and he’s been around, he’s done a bunch of roles and I think he’s a great fit. Joe. Now all he has to do is make the club. That’s going to be the tough part.
Joe Noga: Yeah, we’ll get into the, the numbers here and the sort of the numbers game about what it’s going to mean to try and make the club as a left handed reliever this upcoming training camp. But I want to go back to that, that situation, that moment that you alluded to back on September 18th. If you remember September 18th, this was in the middle of the Guardians making that furious rally to, to come back. And this was the, the end of a three game series that, you know, going into it everybody sort of circled and said, boy, if the Guardians can sweep this series, they’ve got a real shot at this thing. And, and I, I think this was sort of the moment where Detroit knew, hey, our grasp on first place in the American League Central is slowly, actually quickly slipping away. Uh, it’s tenuous at best because Kolby Allard got out there, had a 31 lead and he faced. It was Riley Green in a, in a big moment, a critical moment. This was the 8th inning at 3 to 1 at Comerica Park. It’s getaway day afternoon game at Comerica. The, the Guardians have won the first two games of the series and you know, Allard hadn’t pitched like you said in 14 days prior to that appearance. The real thing that stands out in my mind from that moment was, you know, Riley Green basically was bad, his lefty on lefty and Riley Green and is an all star was battling him pitch for pitch. It was an 11 pitch at bat and finally he struck him out. I believe he struck him out swinging, you know, showed some emotion, pumped his fists, you know, celebrated a little bit coming off the mound just in that moment and, and Green was so angry he slammed his batting helmet and you know, threw off his, his elbow protectors after the game. Steven Vogt, I remember him talking and just praising Allard and calling it as he said there were three of the biggest outs that they had gotten out of the bullpen in a long time. And like you said, somebody had had been in, I believe it was, was it Brad Goldberg? It was a pitching coach had been in Allard’s ear prior to that and told him, hey man, you know, you know, bide your time, hang in there. During that 14 day stretch, he said, we’re going to need you to come in and, and, and be that guy. And he was, yeah, just really a.
Paul Hoynes: A pros pro, Joe. And you know, it was interesting when they, when they took him off the roster and he became a free agent at the end of last se last season I asked Chris Antonetti if there was a chance that would they bring him back. And Chris said we’d love to bring him back but you know, I’ve heard that before a lot of times and the player never shows up again. So obviously, you know, he made a good impression here we with Cleveland, with the front office and the coaching staff. But he also, you know, I think if, you know Allard the way he pitched last season, I would have thought he had, he would have had a chance to go to somewhere else maybe on a big league contract. And maybe that’s what the holdup was when he didn’t get the big league offer, you know, he came back to Cleveland.
Joe Noga: Yeah, I think a lot of teams that are maybe looking for the type of pitcher, the type of role player that Allard is now, maybe they think, you know, the way the, the way construct their rosters, the best play is to add somebody on a minor league contract and you know, not have to guarantee them, you know, sort of that big league roster spot. Right off the bat. I see what they’re getting first. Do the guardians know what they’re getting in Allard? As long as he’s healthy, he’s going to be out there and like you said, pros pro, he’s going to be able to pitch in a variety of different roles, either long relief, like you said, spot start. And then when it came down to it, he was able to take some, some leverage innings there and be a guy who Stephen Vogue could count on as a veteran. I wonder if like said when you were talking to Antonetti, maybe they realized after he, he went and saw what was out there and wasn’t getting any major league offers. Maybe if the guardians came back and said, well, we kind of made this, kind of went down this road with Pedro Avila a couple years ago and they just wound up re signing Pedro Avila and then maybe they just figured, hey, let’s, let’s jump in there and, and you know, sign Kolby again based on their experience, the way things went with Pedro Avila who had to go and spend a year pitching overseas.
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, Joe, I think, you know, this is a valuable guy, a guy that has demonstrated he can pitch in different roles and you know, nothing, you know, he can handle a big league game, a big league situation. He can sit for a while, he can, you know, come in and give you one or two innings. He can spot start for you. Those are valuable guys and he’s been around the block like we said, former number one pick of the Braves. So you know, he’s, he’s been there and done that and there’s, there’s always a place for guys like that in your bullpen and on your roster.
Joe Noga: Funny thing is that sounds like a Pedro Avila from the right side who, what he can give you the same sort of thing. His, his, his approach is more of a workhorse and innings eater type as a right hander, but they profile in terms of kind of their makeup. I guess the same way Allard and Pedro Avila, veteran guys both at this point in their career. The, the next question we have to sort of move on to the next, you know, topic here with, you know, facing Allard is, you know, what are the chances that he can make the bullpen on opening day as a lefty? Because it’s starting to get pretty crowded out there.
Paul Hoynes: I mean all they’ve done this season, this off season is add relievers. I mean they’ve got relievers coming out of their ears and usually, you know, historically it seems like they’ve always been a little short on left handers, you know, left handed starters, left handed relievers. Now they have lefties all over the place. You know, on a 40 man, they’ve got Tim Heron, they got, they’ve got Doug Nakase, you know, possibly Joey Cantillo. If he doesn’t make the big league, you know, the big league rotation, you’ve got, you know, Hunter Messick’s probably a starter one way or the other and Eric Sabrowski of course. And then, you know, they’ve got a bunch of lefties coming to camp on minor league deal.
Joe Noga: Yeah, and one name he left off there obviously because he’s a starter. But Logan Allen is a guy, you know, we don’t know what his role is going to be if they’re going to find a spot for him either in the rotation or try to move him into a relief role as well. So Allen, Cantillo, Herron, Messick, Nikhazy and Sabrowski are left handers who were on the 40 man roster and will be in camp. Non roster lefties include Allard, Will Dion, Steven Perez and Ryan Webb. Obviously Deion Perez and Webb are guys who have not been in the big leagues yet. Allard does have that that sort of big league experience, that upper hand. I would think ahead of any of those guys to make a spot on the roster. But you know, how does this sort of shake out? What’s the numbers game that we’re thinking here? There’s, there’s two open spots in the rotation right now. You got to figure Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi get the first three spots in the rotation. So that leaves two spots for guys with starting experience or who, who you would sort of envision as starters. Allen, Cantillo and Messick I guess would be the guys sort of duking it out for that. And whoever gets left over from that takes, takes up one of the spots in the, in the bullpen.
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, you know, and Cantillo is out of options. Allen and Messick have options. So you know, you’ve got a little leeway there the, you know, when you come to making a rotation. So yeah, Joe, I think, you know, that’s, that’s probably a good way of looking at it. And also Joe, I mean who are the, you know, like guys like Holderman and you know, the other guys, they’ve added Holderman, Armstrong, Bragg. They’ve, they’ve added a bunch of, you know, all right handed relievers but they’re going to be competing for spots as well. This is really going to be a crowded, crowded position and it’s going to be, I think it’s going to be an interesting one to see how it unfolds. Who is going to be the final eight guys in the pen come opening day?
Joe Noga: Well, let’s, let’s think back. Let, let’s work from the, work from behind or work from the end of the bullpen. Here you’ve got Smith, Armstrong and Gaddis for sure at the back end. I would put Sabrowski as long as he’s healthy. But you got to also think that World Baseball Classic if Smith and Sabrowski, they’re going to try and you know, ease them in after, after pitching in the WBC, Smith, Armstrong, Gaddis, Sabrowski gives you four in the bullpen if you throw. Let’s, let’s say for argument’s sake that Logan Allen and Parker Messick make the, the rotation and because Joey Cantillo’s got no options left and he has relief experience, you’re starting Joey Cantillo in the bullpen. I personally think that Joey Cantillo is, you know, going to be a lights out starter this year. At some point he’s going to have a stretch where he’s in the rotation and he does really well. But let’s say for argument’s sake that Joey Cantillo is your first guy, your first lefty in the bullpen besides Sabrowski. Do they carry three lefties in the bullpen? Is there room for Heron and Kolby Allard or I mean who’s, who’s going to be the outman out?
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, that’s, that’s a tough call. Aaron has options, so you could send him out. Allard probably has an out in his contract if he’s not on, you know, if he’s not on the 26 man roster, the 40 man roster, I should say by a certain dated late in spring training, he can opt out or maybe he’ll agree to start the year at AAA and you know, and, and get called up eventually or have a date in his contract where he’d have to get called up or become a free agent. So, you know, that’s something, that’s an, that’s an option as well.
Joe Noga: Two names. As I’m looking at the, the bullpen options here right now and, and I haven’t even really looked at the, the other right handed invitees to spring training which would include, like we said, Avila and Cody Hewer. But I forgot about Matt Festa and what he did in the role that he provided last year. So Smith, Armstrong, and he’s got a major league contract. Smith, Armstrong, Gaddis, Sabrowski, Festa, Cantillo, then you’ve got Holderman and Brogdon and then it’s a full boat. I mean Tim Herron looks like he’s the odd man out. And we haven’t even addressed the issue of Peyton Paulette who is a Rule 5 guy who has to make the roster, otherwise you’re going to have to offer him back to the White Sox.
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, so they were afraid of having a lack of depth in the bullpen. I mean, Joe, they didn’t. They didn’t. They, they ignored the offense, but they certainly didn’t ignore the, the bullpen. They’ve got guys all over the place. It’s going to be a really, really interesting camp in that regard. And who knows, maybe they could make a trade from, you know, if they feel this is a position of strength, they could, you know, make a deal somewhere either late in camp or sometime during the season.
Joe Noga: Yeah, I mean this is based on strictly going by previous major league experience and you know, who’s on the roster in terms of major league contracts and who’s getting paid what. But just in that real quick Breakdown. Smith, Armstrong, Gaddis, Sabrowski, Festa, Cantillo, Holderman and Brogdon. There’s your eight plus Messick and Allen in the rotation. And let’s go. There you go, Hoynsie. We’ve solved the problem. There’s all of them. There’s your prediction. And let’s, let’s jump right into opening day because we can just skip all spring training and go right to it. I’m going to shut you down right here. Betting is not something we want to even talk about.
Paul Hoynes: That’s a sore subject. Sorry about that.
Joe Noga: Let’s have a friendly competition, let’s call it. And there will be no exchange of currency involved. But what’s your wager here, Hoynsie?
Paul Hoynes: Let’s see. I’ll buy you a beer.
Joe Noga: Well, no, no, I want to know. We should have a bet. About what?
Paul Hoynes: About if that what the bullpen is going to look like on opening day.
Joe Noga: I think there’s going to be eight guys in it and some of them are going to throw left handed and some of them are going to throw right handed and most of them are going to be 6 foot 4 to 6 foot 6 or taller. Because you look down this roster and it’s six-four, six-two, six-six. All these guys. I think Sean Armstrong at six two is going to be. And, and Festa, I believe Festa is only 6-1. Those are the shortest guys in the bullpen as it is right now. Everybody else is 64 or taller. The Guardians definitely have their type of reliever that they like. They like them big and they like them throwing hard.
Paul Hoynes: Definitely. Definitely. Those guys like Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis have shown that, you know, big body guys kind of, they, they hold up from the way they’ve been used over the last two years. They’re very, very durable. And that includes the regular season and the postseason.
Joe Noga: Yeah, if you’re going to pitch a guy 25 times a year, you know, he better be built to, to make it the entire 162. Right. You know, we, along with all these roster predictions and projections, we found out that fan graphs has come out with their predict projections for the season and in terms of the number of wins and what place in the division a team will end up based on that, those fan graph projections. MLB.com posted a story about four teams that are trending up and four teams that are trending down. And I know Hoynsie, you’ll be shocked to learn that the number one team trending in the wrong direction that They’ve listed is the Guardians based a lot on the fact that, you know, they did spend the entire offseason just building up their bullpen and not adding to their offense. Fangraphs projections have the Guardians at 76 and 86 and fourth place in the AL Central behind the Tigers, Royals, and Twins. What more of the Twins done than the Guardians to improve themselves this year? You know, Cleveland keeps seeing itself listed behind the Twins on all these preseason projections this year.
Paul Hoynes: And last year, yeah, the Twins, you know, supposedly were in a rebuild. Derek Falvey. But Derek Falvey, the director of baseball operations, president of baseball operations, has left the club. I guess they are not.
Joe Noga: Derek Falvey walked into the room, saw what was going on, and said, I’m out, and that was it.
Paul Hoynes: But he was. He was willing to rebuild. I think whoever took over the ball club from the Polad family doesn’t think they’re rebuilding, so they’re just reloading, I guess, in Minnesota. So we’ll see how that works.
Joe Noga: But these projections have the guardians at 12 fewer wins than last year. And I. And I get it on paper, and based on everything, 12 fewer wins, sure. But this is a team that came from 12 fewer wins back and blew the doors off the Tigers in the last month of the season. There’s no account, there’s no way that a computer can account for the heart that Steven Vogt injected into this team and made them believe in themselves and got the job done. They’re coming in with what. What’s their playoff odds? It’s like, hang on, I’ve got it right here. Their playoff odds to reach are what? To win the World Series, 0.4% to make the playoffs, 14.1% odds to make the playoffs. They don’t have a lot of faith in the Guardians ability to do what they did last year.
Paul Hoynes: I mean, you can see why they would pick them to do this. They did absolutely nothing to help this offense, and it was one of the worst offenses in baseball last year. But the Guardians, they know how to do this. They have a system. They have a belief. They really have a belief in their core players. They’ve won the division, what, three of the last four years, six of the last 10 years? And not every one of those years have they been favored, especially last year. I mean, it’s. It’s. Last year struck me a lot like this year, you know, except they didn’t sign Carlos Santana. You know, I mean, so, you know, you know, I get the predictions. I understand them. If you’re a Fan. I understand the frustrations that they’re probably having right now, Guardians fans, because they, they watched this offense all last just as we did. But these guys have a way of doing, doing the unexpected. So I don’t count them out, but I don’t think they’ve had the best offseason either.
Joe Noga: I mean, the best way I can explain it is, you know, I wouldn’t put my house up as collateral for a wager on this team reaching the playoffs or going very deep, but because I still have to have a place to live. But, you know, I would not be shocked if we’re looking up in, at some point at the end of August or in September and this team is right in the, in the thick of a playoff race. And that has a lot to do with the way that the playoff format has changed and teams are in the race for a lot longer and a lot deeper into the regular season than they have been in years past because of the playoff format changes. And there’s always a chance to go for it as a wild card if you’re, if you’re a front office, but you know, then you get into the degrees of what you’ll do to chase a wild card as opposed to, if you’re a front running team and you’re wanting to add to your roster at playoff time. And, and it’s, you know, we’re a few months away from having to debate and discuss that approach for the Guardians, you know, whether they’re going to buy or sell. You know, this is way too early to talk about buying or selling before they’ve even picked up a bat in Arizona. All right, Hoynsie, one of the thing, one of the note yesterday, Brendan Donovan traded to the Mariners. The Mariners had, had, had sort of after, you know, making one of the very earliest and biggest moves of the off season in, in signing Josh Naylor. The Mariners had really sort of been under the radar for a while in this, this off season. They come through with a big move, trading for an all star infielder in Brendan Donovan from St. Louis. It was a three team trade, but ultimately Donovan winds up to going to the Mariners. Just, you know, what’d you think of that move and how dangerous does this make the first team that the Guardians have to face right off the bat on opening day?
Paul Hoynes: Donovan, really a, you know, versatile guy, can play all over the place. He’s got a little bit of power, you know, just, just a really good ballplayer all around ball player. He’s going to do nothing but help the Mariners and the Guardians were connected with his name early in the off season. Joe. But that’s, that was before I guess we, we knew that the Guardians were going to probably stick with their core players or young guys from the last couple years and really not go out and seek outside help for this ball club, for this roster. But you know definitely a big move for the Mariners. What they were a game away from the World Series in that seven game series with Toronto so yeah he’s going to help them for sure.
Joe Noga: Yeah it’s a lot of different ways he can impact a game. Donovan can with his glove and with his bat so just going to be interesting to see how he fits in with that that high powered Mariners offense now led by Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez. All right Hoynsie, that’s going wrap up today’s edition of the Cleveland Baseball Talk podcast. We will check back in with you again tomorrow. Okay Joe.