The new ownership group reached deep into the monetary reserve to sign slugger Pete Alonso in Baltimore but what’s up with the pitching? Luke Jones and Nestor discuss that one more arm the Orioles need in the rotation – not to mention a too-thin bullpen – in preparation for pitchers and catchers to report to the refurbished facility in Sarasota.
Nestor Aparicio and Luke Jones discussed the Baltimore Orioles’ offseason moves and expectations for the upcoming season. They highlighted the acquisitions of Pete Alonso, Ryan Helsley, and Taylor Ward, and the potential impact of players like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Jackson Holliday. They debated the need for additional starting pitching and bullpen depth, with Luke emphasizing the importance of signing Framber Valdez or another top-tier starter. Nestor expressed optimism, predicting the Orioles could win 91 games, while Luke suggested a more conservative 88 wins, stressing the need for further roster improvements.
Action Items
[ ] @Nestor Aparicio – Arrange for HVAC and plumbing service to address smells at home (contact local HVAC/plumbing company and schedule visit).
[ ] @Nestor Aparicio – Participate in Fadeley’s crab cake event on Monday this week (attend and take part in promotion/activity).
[ ] @Nestor Aparicio – Appear at the scheduled community promo events this week: Monday (Fadeley’s), Tuesday (El Guapo and Catonsville), Wednesday (Koco’s), Thursday (Pizza John’s in Essex), and Friday (Costa Cintimony) to represent the show and distribute promotional items.
[ ] @Nestor Aparicio – Plan and schedule a future west-coast trip to take Luke (follow up on previously promised west-coast outing).
Outline
Orioles’ Offseason Moves and Expectations
Nestor Aparicio discusses the Orioles’ offseason moves, including signing Pete Alonso and Ryan Helsley, and trading for Taylor Ward.
Luke Jones expresses optimism about the team’s potential, mentioning the addition of Alonso and the improvements in the bullpen.
Nestor and Luke debate the need for another starting pitcher and bullpen arm, with Nestor believing the team is close to being competitive.
Luke emphasizes the importance of adding another starter and bullpen arm to solidify the team’s rotation and bullpen.
Analysis of Individual Players and Their Roles
Nestor and Luke discuss the potential impact of players like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Jackson Holliday.
Luke highlights the need for Rutschman to improve, while Nestor believes the team’s core players will perform well.
The conversation touches on the importance of players like Colton Cowser and Ryan Mountcastle in the lineup.
Nestor expresses optimism about the team’s overall potential, while Luke remains cautious about the pitching staff.
Potential Signings and Their Impact
Nestor and Luke discuss the possibility of signing Framber Valdez and the potential impact on the team’s win-loss record.
Luke argues that Valdez could push the team to 91 wins, while Nestor believes the team is already on track for a strong season.
The conversation includes a debate about the value of signing older pitchers and the potential risks involved.
Nestor emphasizes the importance of having a strong bullpen and starting rotation to compete in the AL East.
Historical Context and Team Performance
Nestor reflects on the Orioles’ recent history, mentioning the team’s struggles and the impact of new ownership and management.
Luke discusses the importance of the team’s offseason moves and the need for continued improvement.
The conversation includes a discussion about the team’s potential to win the division and the importance of staying healthy.
Nestor and Luke agree on the need for the team to perform well early in the season to build momentum.
Final Thoughts and Predictions
Nestor and Luke share their final thoughts on the Orioles’ chances for the upcoming season.
Luke remains cautious about the pitching staff but is optimistic about the team’s hitting potential.
Nestor believes the team is on track to be competitive and could even win the division.
The conversation ends with both hosts expressing excitement for the upcoming season and the potential for the Orioles to surprise many.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Orioles, AL East, pitching, bullpen, starting pitcher, Framber Valdez, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Taylor Ward, Ryan Helsley, Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, playoff contender.
SPEAKERS
Speaker 1, Luke Jones, Nestor Aparicio
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
Welcome home. We are W, N, S T am 1570 to Baltimore. We are Baltimore positive. I have not put the logo here, but I have put Drake may here, and I have put Sam darnold here. We are not at the Moscone Center in San Francisco. It’s much more inexpensive to be here, trust me, it is, although, you know, I do owe Luke a West coaster before it’s all over with. Here, maybe we’ll go see the Orioles out on the west I tried to do that last year. I had a flight for you and me book to San Francisco and San Diego, and then the Orioles went into the tank. And then we were like, Why do we want to go and watch a last place baseball team? So this is not a football segment. This is going to be a baseball segment. I’m wearing my Costas gear. It is, a cup of soup or Bowl week. It’s all brought to you by friends at the Maryland lottery, in conjunction with our friends at GBMC, keeping me alive. Thank God for that as well. We have new sponsors as well. We love we get a new sponsor. I feel like Ed McMahon with the timpani here, but they’re out. No one’s mills. But they go everywhere. They are Farnan and Dermer. They are the comfort guys, family owned and operated since 1902 Zach and the family aboard, we’re going to be talking about sports around here. And, matter of fact, get some smelly smells in my place from my HVAC. So I got to get the HVAC guys out here as well. They also do plumbing. You can check them out at Farnan dermer.com you can also reach them at 410-600-7964,
Nestor Aparicio 01:22
thank you for new sponsors. If you are a local sponsor you want to sponsor, not me. Don’t do it for me. Do it for Luke. It’s a baseball season here. Luke. You know that I have a flight booked to Sarasota in a couple of weeks. You know that I have told the Orioles 1000 times, on the air, off the air, in emails, privately, on the record, off the record, I’ve offered to bring them fadeleys crab cakes, and they haven’t even taken me up on that, although I’ll be participating in some fadeley Scrap cakes on Monday this week. I don’t know if we’re going to Sarasota. I hope we are. I hope they can treat me like a human being, and not like like, like ice does, being the Venezuelan guy, but it is a new season. As far as expectations for them. Anybody that’s ever listened to me and knows of My Spirit, I want them to win. They don’t win enough. I’ve been doing this 34 years. We’ve had, what, five or six years where it’s been interesting in all of the years that we’ve been doing this last year was not one of them, and given the new ownership, Pete Alonso, the money they’ve spent, the way two great pitchers came on at the end of last year, the way they have this incredible group of young players, maybe this is the year they win 107 games, and it’s nuts. And maybe they signed Valdez, and maybe they don’t, and maybe they don’t need to. And, you know, I there’s so many, maybes maybe Adley rutschman hits 280 and 23 bombs this year. Comes back to being like Buster Posey little San Francisco reference here for you, there’s it’s baseball. It’s a box of chocolates. And as I peruse my Louis Aparicio Autograph Collection, and in my spare time when I’m not at the Moscone Center, I love baseball. Love the history of baseball. My cousin is the oldest living Hall of Famer. So season is beginning, and I really do think if I were a betting guy, and I’m not, I bet on them to be a playoff team this year, I and that’s it. That’s a bold statement coming from last place, but I just said it. So there. I’m not going to unsay it, but I believe it. I believe they can win 91 games this year. I do,
Luke Jones 03:24
yeah, and that’s, that’s kind of where I am at this point. I mean, you made the mention of 106 wins, like I’m nowhere, anywhere close,
Nestor Aparicio 03:33
but they can, dude, I can make a case for you right now, that Westberg is great, that Henderson’s great, that Alonso is going to be great, that they’re going to have three pitchers that are going to be pretty good, and if the bullpen holds up a little bit and they play some defense, the Jackson holiday is going to come on, that rushman is going to return to be in rushman, I’ll make it. I’ll make a case for Colton. Cows are 260 and strikeout less than 200 times. I don’t know, but they have a lot of Sure, blue, chippy kind of guys, and they got a manager that everybody loves, right? So I’m willing to blow orange smoke up everybody’s rectum here for the near foreseeable future, until, let’s say Preakness weekend, when we sort it out and they’re either 21 and 13 or they’re 13 and 21 you know?
Luke Jones 04:19
Yeah, look, there’s certainly a path, and there’s reason for optimism. And I’m going to say what I had been saying through New Year’s, I like what they’ve done this offseason. I you know? I mean, they went out and signed Pete Alonso, they signed Ryan Helsley to nail down the ninth inning. They brought Andrew Kittredge back in. What was a shrewd move. They signed Zach Eflin right before, what was that New Year’s Eve? The day before New Year’s Eve, whatever it was as a depth option for the rotation, even if he’s not going to be ready for opening day, although the indications are that he’s ahead of schedule with that back surgery recovery. So they traded for Taylor. Ward, regardless of how I felt about the Grayson Rodriguez trade, in terms of whether I thought they got appropriate value for what Grayson Rodriguez could still be in a vacuum, Taylor Ward should very much help their lineup and stabilize their outfield situation. But you know what? I’m still waiting for the punctuation on the offseason, whether it’s going to be a period, and that period is Zach gallon or not, that I’m really all that hot and bothered about the idea of signing Lucas Giolito, for example, but he’s a legitimate Major League starting pitcher, someone of that neighborhood, you know, whether it’s a trade, you know, obviously I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that they traded for boss I like the boss trade. I like that. I thought that as a really interesting move with some upside, to me. It replaces, where
Nestor Aparicio 05:51
is he? Get optimistic on him. For me, let’s because we could be as optimistic as we want on the two
Luke Jones 05:56
position last year, the number and the starter. I mean, like he’s, he’s, he’s someone with a Grayson Rodriguez kind of pedigree in terms of, like, the expectations, in terms of the ceiling, in terms of the stuff, right? He except he’s about 18 months removed from his period of health problems, whereas Grayson Rodriguez still has not escaped that.
Nestor Aparicio 06:15
So what do you expect from him? 160 give me a line on him. It’s what I do this time of year. You don’t want me a long time. What’s he going to hit? What’s he going to pitch? How many innings? What’s, what’s an ideal year for him? And then set the bar at that. And then we’re going to talk gambling in a minute, which we never do around here, because they got the Orioles over under and I really want to have fun with that, because it’s, it’s cloudy, by the way, it’s neat. It’s, it’s, it’s a great conversation. We never talk gambling here, but if I have to give you $100 from farn and Dermer and say, we’re going to bet an honor against over or under 85 or 89 somewhere in the range. But for me, every one of these guys, when I see Boz, I’m like, he might give him 148 innings, really good innings this year, and he might be, you know, um, 11 and eight. I’m just, and I know you hate wins. I’m just thinking back at the baseball card. Um, 380, ra, and win some good be a really solid two to three for them in in a year when they win 91 games, I’m saying they’re winning 91 game. That’s what I’m saying. Okay, that’s gonna be my new number this year, 91
Luke Jones 07:22
and look, I’m not, I’m not saying that that’s unrealistic. I just think they need another starting pitcher. I mean, I just really do, and I think they need another very legitimate bullpen arm, because I think that bullpen is light right now. I mean, I just do, maybe yen your canoe becomes what he was.
Nestor Aparicio 07:39
There anything they can do to make you say, the bullpen, the strength there’s it’s never that way, right? Like it just can’t, you can’t get enough ball, but, but I but
Luke Jones 07:47
at the same time, I’m just looking at it objectively. Look at everything they traded away from their bullpen, what they subtracted from their bullpen. And I’m not saying that that was a great bullpen last year, but look at what they subtracted from their pen, and what have they brought back? Okay, they, signed Helsley. I like the Helsley signing. I’m fully willing and eager to buy into the idea that he was tipping his pitches, and that’s why he had such a horrible month, and why it didn’t work out with the Mets. But the track record prior to that in the last three plus years is that he’s going to be one of the better closers in baseball this year. So I’m fine with that. I like bringing kittridge back. I even, you know, I like the idea of Tyler wells in the bullpen and what that could look like. I need another guy that I can count on in the eighth and ninth inning. I just, I do. I mean, I just do, because I think the numbers are short. I’ll buy into Dietrich ends being a, you know, a guy that might do well in the sixth and seventh inning. I like K Stroud. You’ve heard me talk about him. He’s one of the guys, young guys they gave an opportunity to. They need another guy in the bullpen. They need another starter. Now, to go back to you asked me about Bos. I want to answer your question. You kind of just spelled it out there. I mean, it’s still really noisy projection, right? Because you’re talking about someone that clearly they bought on the idea that he is not yet 27 years old. He’ll be 27 in June. He is now a couple years removed from Tommy John and the injuries that he had that reminded you of Grayson Rodriguez, in the sense that what in 22 he only threw 27 innings. And 23 he didn’t pitch at all. 24 you know, he ended up throwing 79 and a third innings for the raise, you know, because he wasn’t ready at the beginning of the year. But he threw 166 and a third innings last year. The era was 487, so obviously you want to lower era there. But I think the peripherals, in terms of his velocity, in terms of the strikeout to walk ratio, I think the acknowledgement that he pitched in that bandbox of a minor league Park in Tampa last year at Steinbrenner field. I think you look at his home road splits. I think all that sets up. For what you just mentioned, I’m not going to sit here and project him to have a 2.4 era and be and be third in Cy Young voting, but I think he can have a sub four era and be a guy that throws 150 plus innings and strike out a batter per inning, and throw hard and have the kind of upside that he could be their number two or number three starter by year’s end, right? Problem is that’s still a very that’s still an optimistic outlook, right? That’s still, you know, that’s not a top 10% projection, but that’s still more favorable than not. I don’t I want the Orioles to get away from where they’ve been with their pitching in recent years, which is, if everything breaks Right, right? Because we know that not everything’s going to break the way you want it to someone. And I use the term break ironically, there someone’s going to break, and I didn’t even mean to use it that way, but we just know with pitching that that’s where it’s going to be. So you kind of look at their rotation right now. You know, taking bramber Valdes or Zach gallon or Lucas G Alito or any of those possibilities out of the equation for the moment, because they haven’t signed or acquired any of those guys. But right now, they’re starting five if efflin is ready for opening day. And I think that’s a question mark right now is in some order. But you know, if you want to use this order, Trevor Rogers, Kyle brads, you could flip those two if you wanted to. Boz is the three. Kramer is the four, right now, and efflin, you put it the five because of the health question. Now, if efflin is fully healthy, then efflin Could be your three, right or he could be your four. Point is, you’re looking at those five guys, I would feel so much better about this rotation if you could put someone else into that top half. Boz slides down a spot. Kramer slides down a spot, or maybe moves to the pen long relief, and then efflin can slide down a spot as well. Or you just say, hey, Zach, we’re not going to rush you with your back. We’re going to ramp you up slowly. We’re going to slow play you. We want you ready by, I don’t know, Cinco de Mayo, May 5, you know, something like that, right? We want you ready by mid May. And then you’re going to be, from an inning standpoint, you should be good to go. And then you can pitch the whole season, hopefully, but, but I still look at where they are right now with the rotation, it still feels a little bit too much like the last couple years, where you’re counting on everything to go perfectly to plan, and we just know that realistically speaking, things don’t go that way, typically. So that’s where I look at this thing and say they need punctuation on their offseason could be a period. If it’s a period, it’s gallon gi Alito. You know, you could talk me into someone like Chris Bassett. You know, he’s older, but, you know, I think still someone capable of pitching at a pretty high level. He’s 36 you know, there’s been talk about what Justin Verlander has been thrown out there. You know, obviously that. Well, let’s talk
Nestor Aparicio 13:05
about Valdez for a minute, because he pitched somewhere. He’s, he’s good for 32 starts in a, you know, 280 RA and, you know, 204 innings, or whatever it’s going to be for somebody. And what the value of that is to David Rubenstein and Michael era Getty, let alone Mike Elias and Craig Albernaz, with or without, against or for, where are you with a 32 year old pitcher who would if I think they’re going to win 91 with Shane Boz and what they have and whatever piece of veteran house of Dean Kramer they’re going to bring in, to bring another arm in that isn’t going to be an elite arm, is going to be a top of the rotation guy. I mean, if they bring him in, then all of a sudden I can start thinking about three digits, right? If I think they’re worth 91
Luke Jones 13:54
I mean, I don’t know if he’s that pitcher, but if you’re saying 91 then you know that would put them into the they
Nestor Aparicio 13:59
should win a hell of a lot more games with him than Dean Kramer every fifth day. They should.
Luke Jones 14:05
He won 13 games last year. I mean, you gotta you
Nestor Aparicio 14:07
also. Well, then, let’s not give him 200
Luke Jones 14:10
million then. But if you’re saying he takes them from 91 so you’re saying he’s an eight or nine win pitcher, you know, I’m thinking about this in terms of war. I guess you and I just think differently, because you’re old school and I’m a little more hybrid old school in sabermetrics, you know, framber Valdez, in his career, has been kind of a three or four win above replacement kind of pitcher. So first of all, I think 91 is high right now. You’re really counting on them to hit the heck out of the baseball.
Nestor Aparicio 14:38
Then I’m counting on their pedigree to come back. I’m counting on the team that we saw two or three years ago, and for me right now, on rushman just yet, I’m just not,
Luke Jones 14:50
but I’m just saying, collectively, I I’m not at 91 I don’t think this is a 91 win outfit as presently constructed. I’m I’m more like high 80s right now. And I think Valdez puts them into 9192
Nestor Aparicio 15:04
See, I felt like the Santander piece was missing last year, and they’ve replaced that with the Alonso piece. And I don’t think Alonso could be their best player. I think Alonso could be their fourth best player by next year, because rutschman Henderson holiday westburg, are all guys in the program under contract. All going to get their 528
Nestor Aparicio 15:23
at bats, or whatever it’s going to be. And, you know, make their 125 starts, if the 145 if they’re really healthy. You know, in certain circumstances, when you don’t come out of the game, like Henderson or some other guys that are going to play every day, not, not, not right, just get Sundays off. And
Nestor Aparicio 15:43
I’m just more, I’m I’m and it’s nothing to be being Baltimore positive or trying to be the anti prick around here, because I’m not. I mean, you’ve known me a lot. I tell you what I really think. I think they have a lot of potential. I think the pictures coming on at the end of last year, I think fire in the manager. I think bringing in a new dude. I think spending a lot of money on Alonso, I think buying bullpen arms, something that they can do along the way. I think they still have trade pieces that are well thought of, trade pieces that could fetch something for them in the middle, because whatever they are now is not what they’re going to be July 31 the question is, can they be competitive over the first 100 days of the season, to be a buyer and not a seller at the deadline? And can guys come on and more than that, can we just not have five guys hurt on April 28 and start the season three and 13? You know what I mean? Like, I don’t think that’s going to happen, given their pitching and given the fact that they’ve made themselves a little better, and that they were a toilet team last year. They were a last placed outfit, wire to wire last year. And I just don’t think that’s going to happen to them this year. I think they could be fair to mingling in this and that, but I do think players that are 2223 24 when they stumble a little bit, fall, they get embarrassed, they go home, they get hurt. In the case of rushman, you’ve been all about his core. I’d like to think that that these guys that really want to make it, and I feel the same way about Lamar Jackson, who’s watching these guys play the Super Bowl this week, that I’d like to think that these guys get, like I get when somebody spends money at 1057, instead of with me, they get a little piss and vinegar about them and want to compete. And I would think all these guys want to compete, I think they all had to live with last place and live with whatever’s on the back of their bubble gum card that if we want to beat the Ravens up for nobody in the franchise having a year that they’re proud of no one. It wasn’t anyone’s best year without
Speaker 1 17:37
Jordan stout. Okay, fair enough. You gave me one
Nestor Aparicio 17:39
guy out of 53 guys? Yeah, Coach got fired. Manager got fired. Last summer, team was in last place all year. The thing went to hell in a hand basket, even when they showed up for the ballpark 15 games under 500 and I think it’s a little harder to go four for five on those nights when it’s 106 degrees and you’re getting your ass kicked and your pitchers no good, and your manager has been fired, and like all of that, right? The heaviness, the stadiums empty, just all of it. I think there’ll be some energy here. I think there’ll be some new air. And I’m not even saying that to get my press pass back. Mark Katie, Don, any of you like, it’s the way I really feel. I’m not even wearing orange. I’m wearing orange because I’m going to be at Costa simsimonium On Friday, and Pete gave me the this is the management shirt, so I, you know, it’s sort of peachy. I like it. I’m going to be optimistic about the Orioles until they start two and nine and they’re pitching stinks and everybody’s hurt and they don’t come north, and my head’s getting jacked from the home runs they’re given. I mean, I don’t believe that that. I think they’re better. And I think last year was certainly a stumble, a fall, and maybe even a necessary one, that if Mike Elias actually talked to me, he’d say we did this in Houston 10 years ago. We kind of tripped a little bit, and we had to kind of reset what we were trying to do with these young players, because we knew we had four or five core guys, holiday rushman, Henderson, westburg, you add Alonso, like, Dude, it’s February 2. I have no reason to bullshit anybody and being optimistic about a last place outfit, but I am optimistic about the Euros. I think they’ll be better this year, and not better than last place. I think they’re going to be they’re going to keep us engaged until the next time Lamar makes or misses a practice in August.
Luke Jones 19:21
I have no problem with anything you just said. I’m just, I’m not quite as I’m at like,
Nestor Aparicio 19:26
88 like, okay, so Let’s gamble. Then I google this, the only unders 85 and a half to 89 and I think,
Luke Jones 19:34
like we’re in major disagreement here. Like I’m saying I mostly agree with you. I’m just, I need I’m not as high on their pitching, and I’m not being fooled by how many games did they win last year?
Nestor Aparicio 19:48
7575 I was gonna say 72 I lost. Tried. I literally 775, so the fact that they won 75 and you can’t make a bet on them to not be an above. 500 team, you can think they’re going to win 84 games and still lose the bet, right? If the be, if the bet is 85 and a half to 89 and a half, that is extremely optimistic for a last place outfit that had 75 wins, right? I mean, it just is.
Luke Jones 20:14
That also, that also speaks to what the expectations were prior, the idea that you’re not going to evaluate them based solely on what happened.
Nestor Aparicio 20:21
Ravens won eight games. What’s the number on them right now? 10 and a half or 11? Because everybody just expects Lamar to play and they’re going to be, they’re going to be a playoff team next year, as we sit here and watch the Patriots, right but the Bengals think they’re going to be a playoff team, and the Chargers think they’re going to be. I mean, everybody thinks they’re going to be a playoff team. I just think the Orioles have real reasons to be optimistic, because their cupboard is not empty. Their cupboard is not bare. Their cupboards really kind of full. And last year, the manager getting fired and them taking huge stumbles backward, doesn’t speak to the talent. It speaks to the lack of progression of where they were as an organization, and Al, they’ve dusted themselves off, spent money, bought a new manager, trying to buy some pitching i They check all the boxes for me, whether they give me a press pass or not.
Luke Jones 21:13
That’s fine. Like I said, I don’t think we’re in major like we’re not in major disagreement
Nestor Aparicio 21:18
here, but if you’re an 88 you’re not betting me over.
Luke Jones 21:21
I mean, I don’t, I haven’t even looked at what the over under is, because I’m just not Well, depends on which house you go and you get good value. This is but I’m still in roster building mode, and they need more pitching. They just do. I I have. I been wrong about the bullpen the last few years when I’ve generally said this, they need another higher leverage arm. It doesn’t it not saying you have to go trade for some teams, all star closer. Let’s be clear on that. But I think you need another arm that fits into the if Helsley is down, if Kittredge is unavailable that night, this guy, you’re going to feel fine about pitching in the eighth or the ninth inning that night. You know what I mean? Like you need someone like that, because I’m not sure, after the last two years, I’m not sure yen your canoe is going to be that guy anymore, because that’s gone in the wrong direction the last two years. So I look at that and I want to see another starting pitcher. I just do. I just, I don’t you know me. I love Kyle Bradish. I think Kyle Bradish is from a true talent level standpoint, based on what he’s done in the major leagues, as far as what his stuff is and what he’s done when he’s been healthy the last three or three years, four go back four years, second half of 2022 I think he’s very much one of the more most talented starting pitchers in baseball. But having said that, when he’s coming off of Tommy John surgery and he only threw how many innings last year, can you really pencil him in to be 180 innings kind of guy for you that’s ambitious. Trevor Rogers, believe me, I love what I saw from Trevor Rogers. You know, these guys being back in the picture, part of why I’m saying like, and by the way, 88 wins you look in recent years usually will at least get you a wild card spot. So let me be clear, like, I’m not trying to make this out to be like, I’m Debbie Downer compared to you. I we’re just slightly different in where we’re kind of viewing this team presently, a week before the start of spring training. But you know, Trevor Rogers, I’m not expecting Trevor Rogers to have a sub two era, right? I mean, I think that would be completely one unfair to expect him to do that. And I think it would just be completely unrealistic based on the peripherals, based on who he is as a pitcher. That said that doesn’t mean I think he’s going to go back to being what he was at the end of his time with the Marlins, which was why the Marlins got rid of them, and the Orioles got him for what they did at the time, which was Kyle Stowers, who was not perceived to be what he became this past year, and Connor Norby. But you know, I think Trevor Rogers can very much be a heck of a number two number three starter, right? I just, I’d love to have see them have another guy that really fits in there. And, you know, Valdes is 32 right? He’s as dependable as what’s out there on the open market right now, in terms of what you can reasonably expect, understanding that Tommy John or arm injuries can come for any pitcher at any point in time. As I always say to you, pitchers are durable until they’re not anymore. But that said, if Rambert Valdez is balking at a four year deal, which you know, the Oreos have been in on Valdez. I mean, that’s been confirmed. I mean, like they’re, I think they’re still trying, but he’s 32 is he looking for a deal that’s much closer to Dylan cease than Ranger Suarez? I’m not giving him a seven year deal. I mean, I’m not when a pitcher is 32 and especially if we want to go down the road of what happened with. His catcher and that, you know, gives up the brand slam and then crosses up his catcher and hits him in the chest with a fastball. Like, I’m not saying that. That’s a disqualifier for me, let me be clear. But I kind of look at that and I’m like, dude, like, what’s going on? You know, especially, especially if you’re going to sign him to be a race, you know that. And so I at least take a little pause with that, but more so for me, it’s the fact that he’s 32 and I’m just not giving a 32 year old a seven year deal. If he’s willing to take I’m I might even be willing to go five on him, you know. So if it’s five, that gets it done.
Nestor Aparicio 25:37
We’ll see. That’s something the Yankees do is go giving $30 million a year to some guy is going to be 36 years six years old and not care
Luke Jones 25:43
about it well, but is it? They haven’t done it yet, you know? So I’m just saying that’s something rich teams do. Oh, sure, sure. I mean, everyone kind of looked at the Mets. Obviously, the Mets made the trade with Milwaukee, got Peralta, and like everyone kind of position
Nestor Aparicio 25:56
is, is he a front of the rotation guy the next three years for you? If he is, kind of
Luke Jones 26:00
look at it, I mean, like, look, he’s not, look, he’s not prime Jake, like, he, he’s not Tarek school, okay, like, let’s be clear about that. And obviously, who is, I mean, him and schemes are kind of in a category all by themselves at this point.
Nestor Aparicio 26:14
Why wouldn’t you save the money and try to go get those guys later on, if you’re the owners?
Luke Jones 26:18
Oh, what you mean at the trade deadline,
Nestor Aparicio 26:21
at whenever, at whenever you feel like paying a pitcher $40 million a year, and you want a real one, and not a 32 year old one, like I would say, and that doesn’t do you any good. To get me to my argument of 91 wins versus 88 wins and how they win this year. But bad deals are bad deals. You know what I mean? Like, look, it’s a little different for football, where you kick, kick it down the curb and whatever. And I look, these guys are billionaires, so I’m, I’m not gonna cry for Michael aragheti, who all he wants to do, the only thing that matters in his soul is going to be winning. Here, it says another community, nothing to do with what the Orioles used to represent. It’s going to make Michael feel good, make David feel good. Because I, I see that that’s what these got people do. I mean, I, you know, I mean, it’s, it’s an ego driven purchase two years ago. They want to win. And at what cost, I don’t know. But when you have all the money in the world, what difference does it make?
Luke Jones 27:16
Yeah, sure, sure. And let me, let me be very clear when I’m saying I want, I think they need to add more pitching that is not, this is not Meese, you know what? Ing on their offseason, I think they’ve had a good offseason. I’m just ready for the punctuation on the offseason. For me, it still feels incomplete, because I think they need another starter, and I think they need another bullpen on and see the problem now. And this goes for framer Valdes. This goes for Zach Allen. This goes for anyone you would acquire via trade. You are now running out of time in terms of wanting to have a complete spring, because there is ample evidence that shows if pitchers their free agency lingers into spring training. That ends up not being a good thing. I mean that just in terms of performance, in terms of potential health risks, well, somebody’s gonna get hurt too, if they got to shut somebody down in March. But that’s that, for me, is where the urgency is this, this week. You know, as you and I are, and if it’s
Nestor Aparicio 28:19
Bradish, they’re effed. Well, all of a sudden, my bets no good, and I won 81 again, all so
Luke Jones 28:25
literally, if it’s Brad ish, heaven forbid, then Rogers, then you have to go give Fran ro Valdes whatever he’s asking for. Then, like that did. That’s kind of,
Nestor Aparicio 28:35
that was where they were a couple of years ago with burns, when they brought him in knowing Bradish was broken, right?
Luke Jones 28:40
Yeah. I mean, you know, they there’s, they’ve kind of dismissed that privately at times. They do, I Well, and I would also, but I would also say, I don’t think that was the only reason why corporate merge was a good idea, no matter what it was, right? Because they gave up Joey Ortiz and DL Hall. What have those guys become since they traded those that’s why I said even one year of Corbin I know Kyle Stowers, even knowing it was one year of Corbin burns, and then he moved on. That was a trade you still do 100 times out of 100 right? I mean, that’s how overwhelmingly obvious it was so but, you know, I just look at it right now and it’s, I’m still uneasy. On the pitching side, I’m I’m in agreement with you, by the way. On the hitting side, I feel very optimistic about whether they are now, there are certain individuals like I’m not nearly as optimistic about Adley rutsman individually as you are. That said, that doesn’t mean I think Adley rutchman is like, going to be someone that’s unplayable or anything like that. I just think Adley rutchman, to me, the ship sailed, it certainly shailed and sailed in terms of whether they should have drafted him or Bobby Witt Junior. I think that’s obvious now, but that said, I you know, I like gunner Henderson to go back to being much closer to what he was two years ago, which is an MVP candidate, rather than last year, which was above that. Average all star caliber shortstop, but not an MVP candidate. I certainly have an optimism for Jackson holiday to take another step forward, whether that’s going to warrant him being a number one pick, or whether he’s just more of a fringe all star at second base. I certainly am optimistic about Jordan Westberg, if he can just stay on the field. He’s proven he’s a productive player. Colton cowser, you know, he’s another guy. I want to see a new regime. I want to see the new coaching staff work some wonders with him, because he’s going to be important. Colton cows are opening day center fielder at this point. I mean, he’s going to be their everyday center fielder. Yeah. So he needs to have a an offensive profile that, for me, has a little less width, a little more walk and try to get, you know, get back to is that possible? Sure it should be. Go look at what he did in college. Go look at his college numbers. And I know college isn’t pro baseball, but it generally is somewhat predictive, and he’s someone that I don’t think necessarily has to profile as a guy that’s going to strike out 240 times for me, get the walk rate back up. I can live with some of that, with if you’re drawing walks and hitting the ball out of the ballpark and playing plus defense, I can deal with that imperfect profile as long as you’re the good stuff. Problem is, last year, the strikeout rate went up and the walk rate crashed. I that that’s no bueno, right? That that’s not good. I can deal with strikeouts, but get that walk rate back up and play defense and hit the ball out of the ballpark the way he does. So, you know. But you go down the list of, look, I think a big guy that that you’re going to be counting on this year is, I mean, Samuel beside Oh, he’s probably going to DH a whole lot. He’s going to catch a couple
Nestor Aparicio 31:46
times, forgot about him. How many 400 at bats
Luke Jones 31:50
he gonna He’s gonna play most days. I mean, he’s gonna to me, he’s gonna be their primary DH. Because, you know, Tyler O’Neal’s on the roster.
Nestor Aparicio 31:57
Is he gonna hit 20 home runs?
Speaker 1 31:59
I hope, I think he certainly can Okay, I’d be
Nestor Aparicio 32:02
now, I don’t think a 208 or 280 but so, you know, I mean, I think he better hit with power. He it’s like mayo, Mayo to hit with power. He’s worthless. Yeah. I mean,
Luke Jones 32:13
I think, beside to me, for everything you’re laying out in terms of their lineup, obviously, Pete Alonso, you’re trusting Him to be Pete Alonso. You’re very much trusting gunner to bounce back and be closer to what he was two years ago. And I think, I think both of those are excellent bets. By the way, I feel really good about that. I feel the best about those two than anyone else.
Nestor Aparicio 32:36
They’re gonna win 91 games. I believe they’re both gonna hit 30 home runs. And what they are,
Luke Jones 32:40
you know, gunner is going to be a sick more of a six or seven win player, and Pete Alonso is going to be a, you know, a four or five win player who’s hitting 35 plus bombs and playing every day, right? I mean, that’s just what you’re kind of expecting. I think beside you is one of those major X factors in terms of the kind of guy that can make this lineup, like, Oh my gosh. Like, where’s the break? You know, like,
Nestor Aparicio 33:04
like, when Manny Ramirez stepped into the Indians, or,
Luke Jones 33:08
yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. I mean that that’s the kind of potential the lineup could have. And potential is a word that’s gotten the Orioles in trouble at times the last few years. So fully acknowledging that that’s a volatile word. But So believe me, I hear everything you’re saying on the offensive side. I still, I still look at the pitching. It still feels light. You know the rotation if you tell me right now, no questions asked. Zach efflin, 100% bull go opening day. I almost forgot about him, like you can almost, you can almost talk me into that. I still, man, I because I still look at that and say, Look, we talked so much going into the offseason that they need an ace. They need to know a one, or at least a two. You know, boss might become that. But you can’t tell me, boss is that right now. So that’s where I look at that. And I say we’re kind of lowering the bar, but definitive, like, I have a lot of conviction about this. The bullpen feels light to me right now. It just does, and that’s even acknowledging I like the idea of Tyler wells in maybe a seventh maybe an eighth inning role, but that’s where I look at it, and say, look at all the guys they traded last July, and that’s fine. That was the right move. Let me be clear. That was the right move. I’m not, not criticizing that, just stating the past. Look at that in contrast to what they’ve added in the winter. That’s, you know, they’re still
Nestor Aparicio 34:35
but you don’t want Sir Anthony back at this moment, do you? I mean, not well. I mean he’s signed anyway, but you want someone like him, that’s what I’m saying, Yeah, basically.
Luke Jones 34:44
And you don’t want an $8 million relief pitcher, someone like that, yeah, yeah, yeah. I think someone, someone that fits that profile, that can close a game for you once a week. You know when, when helsley’s unavailable 61 innings a. Of, yeah, you know, high leverage, a higher leverage guy, I think they need that. And I will hear your argument, because other people have made that argument too, and everything you’ve said is fair. I’m, let me be clear, this is not me saying like, Oh, you’re insane or anything like that. Far from it. I that’s something I’d like to see them get now, rather than wait at the trade deadline, because I feel sometimes that can be something you end up having to overpay for. And I just, I’d rather them not be in that position. To your point, if you want to fulfill the idea of winning 92 games, which may or might not win this division. I mean, that could win the division. I don’t just because the Blue Jays made it to the World Series doesn’t mean I’m viewing any of these teams as like in the east that are going to win 100 games. I don’t think it’s that kind of a race. But if you can add a high leverage bullpen arm and you can add another impactful starting pitcher, then yeah, I start to really like the Orioles chances in terms of being able to win the division, whereas right now, they’re more wild card like to me right now, as they’re presently constructed, which, by the way, would still be a really nice bounce back from last year. That’s not being I called him a playoff team, right? I mean, I did, right? I think they could be, let me be clear, as presently constructed, can they be a playoff team? Yes, of course they can do. I have the level of conviction that I would have if they could go add one more starting pitcher and one more higher leverage bullpen arm? Then I’m then I’m saying yes, yes, I predict them to be a playoff team. Then Then I have more conviction about what this looks like in terms of the floor, and then what it could really look like in terms of the ceiling. So that’s where I am, and we’ll see what happens. All indications are they’re still trying to add so, like, I don’t think Mike Elias is just because there hasn’t been as much going on the last month, other than, like, these back end of the roster, churn type moves. Doesn’t mean that they haven’t been trying. I think they’ve very much. I think they have put legitimate, serious effort into Franco Valdes, but I would also say he’s not the kind of pitcher where I’m just going to bid against myself either, right? I’m not going to just, you know, throw a seven year deal at a 32 year old pitcher
Nestor Aparicio 37:12
just because it’s more than it is a need at this point, right?
Luke Jones 37:15
Well, I mean, I think it’s in between, right? You know, I, you know, I think, I think it’s more than just a one, but, okay, you know that that, but that’s just where I am. You. And I talked a lot about the pitching going into the winter, right? And I like Boz, I like Zac Eflin, but this is, it’s, it’s like the Taylor Ward thing all over again. What was the thing I said about Taylor Ward when they signed Pete Alonso? I said, I like that move a lot more when it’s the second best offensive addition they made. I would like the Boz trade that much more if that’s the second best addition they made to their rotation. And then you’re telling me efflin is the third. That’s like, man, then you’re cooking. You’re cooking with grease then. And it’s like, Hey, let this then I’ll start here in your 95 win plus kind of talk. I’m just not quite there yet with where their pitching is.
Nestor Aparicio 38:07
He is Luke Jones. He is Baltimore, Luke. I am Nestor. We are fulfilling our radio row Super Bowl obligations from the Moscone Center this week remotely. We’re doing a cup of Super Bowl all around the community all week long. Fade these on Monday, Tuesday at El Guapo and Catonsville, Wednesday at Koco’s, Thursday at Pizza John’s in Essex, and on Friday at Costa cintimony, I’m wearing my Costa skier all are brought to you by GBMC and our friends at the Maryland lottery. I’ll have candy cane cash scratch offs to give away, as well as our newest sponsors at Farnham and Dermer. We’ll be telling them more about all of that as we get through this. And just let everybody down at the warehouse. Know, you know, Nestor thinks they’re going to be good this year. Okay, back for more. It’s Baltimore. Positive. Stay with us.