Without question, starting pitching has been the backbone of the Philadelphia Phillies for two straight seasons and honestly, it’s not even up for debate.
Since the start of the 2024 season, the Phillies own a .590 winning percentage, tied for the best mark in baseball, and the rotation has driven nearly all of it.
Over that stretch, they rank first in the National League in ERA, first in opponents’ OPS, and second in strikeouts.
When this team wins, it’s usually because the starters dictate the game early and force everything else into place. Heading into 2026, though, the rotation feels different because it is different.
Ranger Suárez is gone and for the first time in a while, there are real, uncomfortable questions at the back end of the rotation instead of just blind optimism. The good news is those questions don’t start at the top.
Cristopher Sanchez will be the Phillies starter Opening Day
There’s no ambiguity here anymore. Cristopher Sánchez enters 2026 as the Phillies’ ace and the Opening Day starter.
Last season he went 13–5 with a 2.50 ERA, led the league in bWAR, and cleared 200 innings for the first time. That wasn’t a fluke run or a hot stretch. It was a full season of dominance built on command, pitchability, and a changeup that absolutely ruins right-handed hitters.
Since 2023, hitters have batted .169 against that changeup. Sánchez leaned into it even more last year, bumped the usage, and somehow got better. Velocity went up across the board, not down.
That’s how aces are born. He’s no longer “emerging.” He’s established and if everything clicks again, he’s a legitimate Cy Young candidate.
Jesús Luzardo: All or Nothing
With Suárez gone, Jesús Luzardo becomes the hinge point of the rotation.
His 2025 season was a roller coaster. At his best, he looked like a front-line starter. Over his first 11 starts, he posted a 2.15 ERA. Over his final 11, he had a 2.84 ERA and a sub-3 FIP. In between, though, was a brutal 10-start stretch where he owned the worst ERA in baseball.
That’s the Luzardo experience in a nutshell.
The Phillies stuck with him, and the payoff came in October. His NLDS Game 2 start against the Dodgers was calm, controlled, and exactly what you want from a pitcher you’re counting on long term.
Now he’s entering a contract year. He led the team in wins and starts last season. If he wants the bag, consistency is the price of admission.
See you soon, Zack Wheeler…?
This is where things get uncomfortable. Zack Wheeler is 36 soon. He’s coming off thoracic outlet surgery. He’s throwing, but nobody is pretending there are guarantees here.
If Wheeler is ready for Opening Day and gives the Phillies 160–170 innings of solid work, that’s a win. You take a mid-3 ERA and you don’t complain. Anything more than that is gravy. The margin for error is thin, and the Phillies know it. Wheeler’s health could be the difference between a smooth season and scrambling by June.
The Aaron Nola Revenge Tour Needs to Happen
Aaron Nola’s 2025 season was a mess. Injuries, inconsistency, bad stretches that buried the team early in games. That said, the last month mattered. He finished stronger, earned a postseason start, and reminded everyone that the baseline version of Nola is still useful.
He’s not an ace anymore but really, he doesn’t need to be. If the Phillies get a 3.25–3.79 ERA from Nola as a fourth starter, that’s perfectly acceptable.
Anything beyond that is a bonus.
Taijuan Walker vs. Andrew Painter – Hilarious to Write.
If Wheeler is available, the fifth spot comes down to Taijuan Walker versus Andrew Painter and the upside gap between those two could not be wider.
Walker is what he is at this point. A veteran on an expiring deal who has struggled mightily against good teams and profiles better in relief than as a starter. He showed that last year. The problem is his contract and Wheeler’s uncertainty make moving him difficult.
Painter, meanwhile, is the wild card. The stuff is undeniable. The upside is enormous but command is still an issue, and it showed at Triple-A.
Falling behind in counts kills Andrew Painter and that’s not really something you can paper over in the majors, which is really my main concern from the “chosen one” who this organization has told us, time and time again, will be a top rotation arm when ready.
Well, now is the time. Spring Training will matter a lot. If Painter proves he can get ahead early, he’s the better option. If not, the Phillies will have to decide how much risk they’re willing to take.
Could you imagine seeing Taijuan Walker as the fifth starter? That can’t happen (again) right? What a disaster that would be.
Who else…?
Well no one, really. Seth Johnson, Alan Rangel… maybe a few AA arms who could push with strong Springs? Veteran free agents are still out there, but a big move feels unlikely unless Walker is dealt and money is shed.
The Phillies’ rotation is still a strength. It just isn’t bulletproof anymore.
They have a real ace. They have veterans who should be healthier. They have two pitchers with serious motivation in contract years. And they have one of the highest-upside young arms in baseball knocking on the door.
Spring Training will tell us a lot. But for the first time in a while, the questions feel real, not hypothetical. And how the Phillies answer them could define the season.
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