Kazuma Okamoto was a highly-sought-after Japanese free agent this offseason. Several teams tried to sign him, but he eventually inked a four-year, $60 million dollar contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto seems like a great landing spot for Okamoto. It appears to be perfectly suited to his batting profile and makes him an intriguing 2026 fantasy baseball third base sleeper.
Okamoto’s NPB Dominance in 2025
Okamoto was one of the most dependable power hitters in NPB over the past several years. He hit at least 27 home runs in seven straight seasons and averaged 33 HR and 94 RBI between the 2018 and 2024 seasons.
Advertisement
Key 2025 Stats and Highlights
Okamoto played just 77 games in 2025 due to an elbow injury suffered when he collided with a batter running down the line, but he still had a highly productive season:
.322 BA, 15 HR, 51 RBI, .411 OBP, .581 SLG, 210 wRC+
He also posted an above average walk rate (11.3%) and strikeout rate (11.3%).
Strengths for MLB Transition
His high career walk rates and low strikeout rates are part of what has made Okamoto one of the most consistent contact and power hitters in the NPB.
Advertisement
Okamoto has also shown recent improvement in his contact skills against fastballs, and that should help ease his transition to MLB as he faces a higher percentage of high velocity pitchers that are very common in the big leagues.
Okamoto also has a long track record of pulling his flyballs at an above average rate which is a common trait for home run hitters.
Historical NPB-to-MLB Comparisons
Kazuma Okamoto’s NPB power and contact profile mirrors past Japanese imports who translated into steady MLB fantasy contributors.© Rhona Wise-Imagn Images
(© Rhona Wise-Imagn Images)
Okamoto is often compared to former New York Yankees OF Hideki Matsui. Matsui’s NPB HR production was slightly higher than Okamoto’s, but both were disciplined elite power hitters. Matsui’s above average strikeout and contact rates carried over to the big leagues, which can be viewed as a good sign for Okamoto’s future as a major leaguer.
Advertisement
It’s a small and random sample, but still interesting to note that Matsui, and current big leaguers Seiya Suzuki and Masataka Yoshida, all had significant reductions in their OBP after they transitioned from the NPB to MLB.
Okamoto’s 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Kazuma Okamoto’s disciplined approach gives him category and points-league value even with modest MLB strikeout growth.Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
(Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images)The Blue Jays Are a Great Fit for Okamoto’s Batting Profile
Okamoto’s batting philosophy fits in nicely with the Blue Jays’ lineup that features several patient, high contact hitters who are good at working the count and wearing down opposing pitchers.
Advertisement
Rogers Centre Park Factor
As a right-handed batter, Okamoto should enjoy playing his home games at Rogers Centre. Based on 2025 Statcast park factors, it was rated fifth best for right-handed hitting batters like Okamoto and third best when only home runs are considered.
Okamoto’s 2026 Role
Okamoto is expected to be the Blue Jays’ starting third baseman and he also has experience playing first base and in the outfield.
He hits left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching and while he’s expected to be in the Blue Jays’ everyday lineup, they may opt to sit him early in the season against elite right-handers.
Advertisement
Fantasy Projections for 2026
Major projection models predict that while Okamoto may experience a slight uptick in his strikeout rate, they’re optimistic that it should hover in the high teens to low 20% range. Based on that projection, Okamoto’s 2025 stats might look something like this:
Kazuma Okamoto 2026 projection:
.263 BA, 23 HR, 75 R, 84 RBI, 2 SB
Category and Points League Outlook
With projections expecting Okamoto to continue to limit his strikeouts, he should have good fantasy value in points leagues that penalize batter strike outs.
Advertisement
Okamoto should also be a fantasy baseball asset in category leagues, making potential solid contributions to the HR, Runs and RBI categories.
Kazuma Okamoto Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy
Kazuma Okamoto offers comparable production to higher-ADP third basemen at a fraction of the draft cost.
Where to Draft Okamoto
Based on his NFBC ADP (306.98) and Fantasy Pros Consensus ADP (218.8), Okamoto could be a multi-position fantasy baseball sleeper. He has played third base, first base and outfield in the NPB.
Draft Comparison to Fantasy Baseball Third Basemen
These third basemen have much higher ADPs than Okamoto but are projected to produce similarly to the Blue Jays’ expected Opening Day third baseman:
Advertisement
(Stats are courtesy of ATC Projections)
Alex Bregman (NFBC ADP 116.61)
.253 BA, 22 HR, 81 R, 80 RBI, 2 SB
Jordan Westburg (NFBC ADP 128.45)
.261 BA, 23 HR, 80 R, 74 RBI, 6 SB
Matt Chapman (NFBC ADP 167.89)
.238, 24 HR, 82 R, 74 RBI, 9 SB
Royce Lewis (NFBC ADP 190.30)
.243 BA, 19 HR, 58, 64, 11 SB
Risks and Final Verdict
Drafting any rookie comes with risk, and despite his many productive seasons in the NPB, Okamoto is an MLB rookie.
There’s always a chance that Okamoto’s issues with hitting against right-handed pitchers will be magnified and that he could be platooned, but his upside and the minimal draft capital you’ll need to invest in him in fantasy baseball drafts makes him well worth the risk.
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Feb 5, 2026, where it first appeared in the Fantasy section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.