There is little doubt that the top of the San Diego Padres’ rotation is expected to be pretty good in 2026. With right-handers Nick Pivetta, Michael King, and Joe Musgrove, the latter returning from Tommy John surgery, that is good enough for the Friars to compete with anyone.
But after that, it gets a little dicier.
Right-hander Randy Vasquez is a relative lock at the No. 4 spot, with a handful of options for the final spot, all coming with their own questions as to whether they are a viable MLB starter. Spring training will sort that out, through performance or, gasp, injury, which would make an already-thin rotation depth chart that much scarier. And a reason why it wouldn’t be surprising for the president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller, to continue to bring in candidates before Opening Day.
Some of these candidates have minor-league options remaining, while others don’t, or are on minor-league contracts that would have them start the season at Triple-A El Paso if they don’t make the MLB rotation or bullpen.
Randy Vasquez’s Stuff
Vasquez has had a prominent role for the Friars since coming over as part of the prospect package in the Juan Soto trade with the New York Yankees following the 2023 season. The 27-year-old is rather average when it comes to velocity on all seven of his pitches. After a rocky 20 starts in 2024, Vasquez was much more reliable in 2025 with 26 of his 28 appearances as a starter. That came despite his FIP going up from 4.70 to 4.85, with his ERA going the opposite way (4.87 to 3.84), showing that maybe he was the beneficiary of some luck. He greatly improved his BABIP from .333 to .261 as his innings rose from 98 to 133⅔.
His most used pitch in 2025 was his cutter, but it was also the pitch that was hit for a higher average (.267) than any of his other offerings and yielded a .447 slugging percentage, by far the highest of his three most-used pitches. His cutter had 0.8 inches less break and 2.6 inches more rise than the average MLB right-hander. His four-seam fastball was his most consistent pitch. The simple problem that Vasquez faces is that he doesn’t have the stuff that makes hitters chase. He ranks in the bottom 1% in whiff rate (15.7%), bottom 13% in chase (25.1%), and bottom 2% in strikeouts (13.7%). He is also in the 30th percentile in walks (9.1%).
Randy Vasquez’s Pitch Arsenal
As you might expect with someone who has seven pitches who isn’t a dominant pitcher, Vasquez doesn’t rely on any singular offering to get outs. His cutter was his most-used pitch in 2025 at 24.9% and checking in at 90.2 mph. His 93 mph four-seamer was used 21% of the time, and his 93.1 mph sinker 19.1%. Then you drop down to his 82.1 mph sweeper and 81.2 mph curveball at 13.1% and 12.8% usage before getting to his 86.9 mph changeup (6.9%) and 85.8 mph slider (2.1%). The usage of his cutter and four-seamer differed significantly from 2024, when his 94.3 mph four-seamer was his go-to pitch at 28.4%, and his 90.2 mph cutter was just 13.7%.
The sweeper also took a jump in usage (from 10% in 2024), which may be a precursor to phasing out his curveball, which dropped from 19.7%.
What Should Randy Vasquez’s Role Be In 2026?
With a lack of better options at this point, Vasquez is pretty well set to be part of the rotation this year, whether it be at the No. 4 or 5 spot. Combine that with the fact that he has no minor-league options remaining, and Vasquez is likely to get a long leash. Any prolonged struggles will relegate him to a relief role. Perhaps eliminating the curve in favor of the sweeper and using his four-seamer and sinker more than about 20% each would make him more effective. Those were the only two pitches where he had a positive run value (seven on the four-seamer and nine on the sinker). It would definitely be interesting if his sinker usage spiked. He doesn’t have the velocity to blow batters away (he ranks in the 32nd percentile). With the lack of strikeouts, he ranked only in the 41st percentile in grounders (40.2%).
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