Tarik Skubal has officially won his arbitration case with the Tigers, locking in a record-setting $32 million salary for the 2026 season. The arbitration panel’s decision comes just one day after Detroit made a blockbuster signing, adding Framber Valdez on a three-year, $115 million contract.

The two left-handed aces will combine to earn roughly $70 million in 2026, just one season before Skubal is set to hit free agency.

News free at ESPN: Tarik Skubal won his arbitration case, a big victory for players that could have long-term implications on salaries, particularly at the top of the scale. Details on how Skubal wound up with a $32M salary vs. the $19M Detroit asked for: https://t.co/akLNPgHe5R

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 5, 2026

At first glance, Detroit’s addition of Valdez and its decision to settle with Skubal appears to be bad news for the Padres. San Diego spent the entire offseason searching for left-handed pitching but lacked both the farm system to trade for Skubal and the payroll flexibility to sign Valdez.

Looking deeper at Detroit’s financial situation, however, Skubal’s long-term future with the Tigers is on thin ice. With Valdez now on the books and Skubal commanding a massive arbitration salary, it’s a guarantee that Skubal reaches free agency in 2027. That timeline will align perfectly for the Padres, who are expected to have their ownership sale resolved by then – potentially unlocking the financial flexibility needed to pursue Skubal.

There was legitimate speculation earlier this offseason that the Padres would pursue the two-time Cy Young winner, given general manager A.J. Preller’s history of aggressive moves and success navigating arbitration cases. Ultimately, San Diego lacked the resources to make a move, but that will change dramatically next winter.

Historically, the Tigers have not operated with payrolls north of $200 million. With Valdez and Skubal already accounting for roughly $70 million – a number that would increase if Skubal re-signed -, it is difficult to envision Detroit having the financial wherewithal to retain both arms. The Tigers may view Valdez less as a partner and more as a replacement once Skubal departs.

BREAKING: Star left-hander Framber Valdez and the Detroit Tigers are in agreement on a three-year, $115 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Valdez, 32, gets the highest AAV ever for a left-handed pitcher as well as the highest for a Latin American pitcher. Huge move for Detroit.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 5, 2026

Detroit will push for a World Series in 2026 behind its duo of left-handed aces, but Skubal’s long-term fit is dimming. When he does reach free agency, he will be a far more realistic target for the Padres than he was this offseason.

The biggest variable in that scenario is ownership. If the Padres land a buyer willing to infuse real money into the roster, free agents like Skubal represent the clearest path to improvement. The farm system is unlikely to rebuild in one year, limiting Preller’s ability to make his usual splashy trades. Free agency, however, becomes a real option if there aren’t payroll constraints.

Landing Skubal would not be easy. Detroit will almost certainly attempt to retain him, and high-spending teams such as the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees will be heavily involved. Skubal is coming off one of the most dominant two-year stretches by a pitcher in MLB history. Over the past two seasons, he has thrown 387.1 innings with a 2.30 ERA and 2.47 FIP, while consistently delivering in postseason outings. Oh yeah – and he won back to back Cy Young awards. 

The need is clear, and Detroit’s Valdez signing has increased the likelihood Skubal eventually becomes available. The next domino to watch is who ultimately buys the Padres, and how committed that owner is to spending at the top of the market.