Fine, the Dodgers aren’t actually projected for a clean 100 wins, but 99.6 is close enough for me. Believe it or not, this is the most wins we’ve ever projected them for. Projection systems are inherently conservative; 100-win projections are rare. This team simply looks that good. When you take the two-time defending World Series champions, lose almost no one, and add the top hitter and top reliever available in free agency, an already-rosy projection simply spikes to the moon. We think the Dodgers have a comically high 94.1% chance of winning the NL West. That’s silly.
The other teams in the West are actually locked in an interesting race for second. The Padres and Diamondbacks have made playoff noise in recent years, but we have the Giants narrowly ahead of those two this year despite a relatively quiet offseason. Their big addition will be a full season of Rafael Devers, and adding solid veterans like Harrison Bader and Luis Arraez won’t hurt. The Padres, on the other hand, lost three important contributors and added no one of note to replace them. The core group of Machado, Tatis, Merrill and Co. is still excellent, but the long-term impact of the trades the Padres made to surround that core with a good supporting cast means that there’s very little depth to go around here at the moment.
The Diamondbacks are more of a wild card than the Padres, who we know will be good, but expect to be less so than in recent years. The D-backs, on the other hand, has been pivoting all over the place. They sold at the deadline last year, then added this offseason by trading for Nolan Arenado and bringing Merrill Kelly back to replace Zac Gallen. There’s a ton of upside here – three different Snakes project for 4 WAR or more, with Gabriel Moreno not far behind at 3.9. But between some lineup holes – presumptive DH Adrian Del Castillo feels particularly risky to me, but first base isn’t great either – and a thin pitching staff, it’s easy to see how this team could fall out of the race early.