The San Diego Padres’ biggest offseason question was how to plug the holes in the rotation. The club lost Dylan Cease to free agency and Yu Darvish to injury. Because A.J. Preller is in charge, visions of a Tarik Skubal or Freddy Peralta trade or a Framber Valdez signing danced in people’s heads. However, Preller has just re-signed Michael King to a player-friendly contract.
As the players arrive in Arizona for spring training, three of the five starting spots are spoken for: King, Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove. The incumbent options for spots Nos. 4 and 5 — Randy Vasquez, J.P. Sears, Kyle Hart and Matt Waldron — do not inspire much hope. That leaves the door open for non-roster invitees Triston McKenzie and Marco Gonzales.Â
Padres Mission is taking an analytical look at all the contestants for Opening Day rotation spots. This piece will focus on what Gonzales might bring to the club and whether he should break camp with San Diego or report to Triple-A El Paso as an insurance policy/reclamation project.
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Marco Gonzales’ Stuff
Gonzales fits the profile of a “crafty lefty” who “knows how to pitch.” His velocity is distinctly below average, but he throws strikes, moves the ball around and expands the zone. He has produced excellent chase, exit velo, hard-hit and walk rates in his career.
He also knows how to pitch to the dimensions of his home park. After working in St. Louis’ Busch Stadium, Seattle’s T-Mobile Park and Pittsburgh’s PNC Park, his career home ERA is 0.62 runs lower than his road ERA in almost the same number of innings (3.85 to 4.47), and his home run percentage is six-tenths of a point better (3.0 to 3.6). Obviously, he’d go 4-for-4 if he adds Petco Park to the list.
Those numbers help to explain why he has been able to pitch for a decade in the majors despite a career 90 Stuff+ and 104 Location+, per Fangraphs.
The biggest unknown with Gonzales is his health. He has undergone two forearm surgeries in recent years — the first one in August 2023 to repair a nerve issue, the second in September 2024 to repair a flexor tendon injury. He missed the 2025 season as he recovered from the latter procedure. How much command will he have when he returns to the mound?Â
Marco Gonzales’ Pitch Arsenal
Saying Gonzales does not overpower hitters is a massive understatement. His fastball velocity ranked in the fourth percentile or lower every year from 2019 through 2024. In fact, his sinker — which he threw nine percent of the time — was his fastest pitch in 2024, averaging 90.1 mph, per Baseball Savant. His four-seamer averaged 89.7 mph and his cutter averaged 85.7 mph. All three speeds were well below the league average for left-handers.
Gonzales also features a changeup and a curveball. The change is the primary off-speed pitch (80.2 mph), and its movement compares quite favorably to changes thrown by pitchers who have similar arm angles and extensions. The four-seamer, which tends to ride up in the zone, also stacks up well. (Gonzales enjoys the benefits of above-average extension.)Â
With the Pirates in ’24, he used the change about as often as the cutter, but both were thrown less frequently than the four-seamer. He threw those three pitches almost equally to right-handed batters, though he leaned more heavily on his four-seamer against left-handers (43 percent).
The curveball lost its bite in 2024. Gonzales responded by throwing it 10 percent of the time, below his career norm.
Of note, Gonzales’ average arm angle has been dropping steadily over the years, from a high of 48 degrees in 2021 to a low of 37 degrees in 2024. The lowest individual angle is for the changeup, which was thrown at an average of 30.7 degrees two years ago.
What Should Marco Gonzales’ Role Be in 2026?
Gonzales has been exclusively a starter since 2018. The Padres need rotation help. It seems clear what the role should be. But he needs to show enough in spring training to make a team, any team, and that might be too difficult after a year off. What does he have left after his latest surgery? Can he build up to around 80 pitches by Opening Day so he can get through five innings? Will he be afforded a longer ramp-up period while serving as Triple-A insurance? So many questions to answer, but it’s clear that this is a veteran who could be serviceable if he’s healthy.
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