DETROIT — The Detroit Tigers will arrive in Lakeland next week with far more clarity than chaos.
That might not have been obvious over the past few months, or especially the past few days, as Tarik Skubal’s arbitration case, lingering trade speculation, and then a stunning nine-figure contract interrupted what had previously been a sleepy hot-stove season.
But the picture that’s emerged is a reassuring one. The Tigers are operating with surprising financial flexibility, and the last few days have clarified how far they’re willing to go in pursuit of winning in 2026.
In 48 hours, the Tigers committed $115 million to Framber Valdez, and then Skubal secured the largest arbitration award in the sport’s history.
That reignited a question that has percolated all winter: Would the Tigers now be more inclined to trade their ace?
Trading Skubal, never likely, would be almost unthinkable now. And contrary to popular belief, Skubal’s massive raise in arbitration this week did not necessarily make a deal more likely.
Trades are often built around the notion of surplus value. A Skubal who costs $32 million has less surplus value, and is therefore less attractive as a trade piece, than a Skubal who costs $19 million.
One of the few teams — possibly the only team — with the prospect capital to even contemplate a Skubal trade is the Los Angeles Dodgers. But they already have enough starting pitching to field two major league rotations, and their payroll is so far past the luxury-tax threshold that adding Skubal would likely trigger roughly $35 million in additional penalties on top of his $32 million salary.
So even if there remains a 0.01 percent chance the Tigers might deal Skubal, why not pretend it’s zero and put the issue to bed? Tigers president Scott Harris could help matters by saying as much in his first press conference of the spring — that Tarik Skubal isn’t going anywhere. Period.
The acquisition of Valdez gives the Tigers an imposing starting rotation that, if everything goes perfectly, might even belong in the same conversation as the Dodgers’.
Far from being offended by the big bucks thrown at Valdez, expect Skubal to be thrilled by it. He’s on a back-to-back playoff team with aspirations for something bigger.
Far from being disgruntled by the contentious arbitration process, Skubal should be basking in his victory. His arbitration strategy paid off in spectacular fashion.
The official numbers were stark: the Tigers offered $19 million, and Skubal countered at $32 million. But that was at least partly by design. Had this been negotiated in a more traditional manner, Skubal might have nudged the Tigers up to $20, $21, or perhaps even $22 million.
Instead, he decided to risk a few million dollars and swing for the fences, betting that back-to-back Cy Young Awards and two seasons of dominance would convince an arbitration panel to make him the highest-paid arbitration-eligible player in history.
He was right.
Meanwhile, the Tigers have reason to second-guess their approach. With arbitrators effectively weighing whether Skubal was worth more or less than the $25.5 million midpoint, the club might have helped its case and mitigated risk by submitting a slightly higher figure.
But the signing of Valdez — announced before the outcome of Skubal’s hearing was known — showed the Tigers are operating on a different financial plane than they were not long ago. CEO Chris Ilitch chose not to let $13 million impact a decision that could strengthen the club. That’s especially commendable in light of the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the regional sports network that broadcasts the Tigers and Red Wings.
Ilitch may have realized that there’s no better time to splurge than right now.
Skubal, Gleyber Torres, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, and several other veterans are set to come off the books after this season, representing more than $100 million in salaries. The Tigers can, in effect, borrow from 2027 while pushing the accelerator in 2026.
And the uncertainty surrounding 2027 only sharpens that logic. Another lockout appears increasingly likely. Both sides are signaling that it could be contentious, and if owners are serious about pursuing a hard salary cap, the season could even be at risk.
So the path forward is clear enough. Get to Lakeland, turn the page and don’t fret — the Tigers are entering a season with huge expectations that feel more attainable than they did 48 hours ago.
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