Welp, no more excuses about it being early now.
It’s Memorial Day weekend and just over one-third of the 2025 baseball season has come and gone. “It’s early” no longer holds any water as an explanation of what we’ve seen. Memorial Day is the unofficial date to take stock as to where your club is in relation to everyone else.
As you can tell based on the fact that they continue to hang around that pesky .500 mark, the Boston Red Sox have not been living up to the high expectations that we had for them when the season started.
A lot has changed since Game 1 in Texas: an All-Star pitcher last year has been placed on the IL following what can only be described as a disastrous start to 2025; a new starting catcher has emerged; extensions have been given out; the team’s 3 and 4-hole hitters are set to miss months of action (more on that later), etc.
Yet in all that time, the Red Sox have remained just about the same: perfectly mid. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
So as painful as it might be to admit, I think this is an apt time to reevaluate our expectations. I was already thinking it early on Sunday, but that ugly play to make it 5-0—following a comedy of errors—cemented it.
My patience with this team has officially expired
— Fitzy Mo Peña (@FitzyMoPena) May 25, 2025
I try to stay as optimistic as possible, but with the current state of the roster we cannot expect the Red Sox to turn into one of the top teams in the American League (I’m sure some of you will mention that you’ve already reached that conclusion; not trying to be snippy, but I’m now on board with you). A club that splits a four-game series at home to a team with one of the worst pitching staffs in all of baseball is not deserving of that tag. A team that splits its longest home stand of the year is not deserving of that benefit of the doubt. They’ve done nothing to show us, on a consistent basis, that we should reevaluate where things stand.
Yes, they’ve experienced some misfortunes due to injury. At the same time, some of their wounds have been self-inflicted: the record in one-run games continues to be horrendous. Guys that we need be stepping up in these trying times are not doing so. I need starters like Brayan Bello to go deeper into games. I need hitters not named Rafael Devers to deliver the big hit more often. I’m getting sick of this cycle of mid.
This isn’t to say that a postseason berth (not birth, as I was called out for posting on Twitter) isn’t within the range of outcomes for this group—with an expanded postseason pool you can feasibly get into the dance with 80-something wins, a mark that Boston could very possibly end up notching—but I don’t think we’re watching a team that could meet some of the lofty expectations some had bestowed upon them in the spring. Don’t shoot the messenger.
It’s Monday Morning Brushback time, y’all.
A Real Pain
Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images
Third baseman Alex Bregman suffered a quad injury this week. Red Sox Nation collectively had hoped that the AL MVP contender would only miss a limited amount of time—maybe a stint on the 15-day IL at most—but the situation appears to be much more dire, as we might not be seeing number two for a few months.
Alex Bregman on his injury:
– “Pretty severe”
– Similar to 2021.
– Said it surprised him a lot because he felt okay yesterday.
– Will take it day by day and crush rehab.
– He couldn’t fall asleep last night, that’s when he knew something was wrong.
– No timetable.
(via @WEEI) pic.twitter.com/A1wttHNHFk
— Gordo (@BOSSportsGordo) May 24, 2025
Just to restate the point I mentioned however-many words ago: Alex Bregman and Triston Casas, who we had hoped would be Boston’s thre and four hitters this year, are going to combine for, like, six to eight months of time. The team’s overall play has not been up to snuff (and it’s not like Casas was setting the world on fire prior to his season-ending injury a few weeks ago), but misfortunes like this are going to have to force us all to reevaluate what we have on our hands. It’s unfortunate, it’s untimely, hell you can even say it’s unfair if you feel so inclined—but it’s the reality we’re living in.
In Bregman’s case, you don’t need me to tell you how vital he’s been to the team and what his absence means…but I’m gonna tell you anyways, because if I didn’t I’d probably be fired by OTM.
It’s hard for anyone to cover for a guy who’s posted a 159 OPS+ in the heart of the order. Even with slumps for some other players here and there, Bregman has consistently provided some much-needed juice at the plate. It would’ve been unrealistic to expect him to keep up with a .299/.385/.553 pace, but it’s quite obvious that the Red Sox—who have already struggled to put up runs on certain days, as that Mets series, Saturday night, and Sunday afternoon just proved—are going to miss his contributions.
Hopefully Bregman will continue to stick around with the team as a way to maintain that veteran presence in the clubhouse, which has gotta be worth something. I dunno man, I’m just trying to find any glimmer of hope in an otherwise shitty situation. Not much else to say regarding the Bregman injury other than it sucks. We thought we had something nice on our hands; it’s not like he died, of course, but he’s going to be missed as the summer—and the race for the playoffs—begins in earnest.
Welcome to the Show
Photo by Natalie Reid/MLB Photos via Getty Images
Infielder Marcelo Mayer, one of the top prospects in the sport, made his MLB debut on Saturday—after he started the day in Worcester, as Pod On Lansdowne was on hand to document!
A quick rundown of the kid if you’re unaware: he was drafted in 2021 as a shortstop, but he could feasibly play at third or even second if you’re in a pinch. At 6’3”, it’s probably for the best if he’s on the left side of your infield. Strong arm, silky smooth swing, high upside for both the hit tool and the power for a middle infielder. Very promising player, indeed.
His call-up to the majors might have been facilitated due to the unfortunate Bregman news, but it’s good to see him up with the big club now. Manager Alex Cora has entrusted him to slot right into the hot corner in Bregman’s absence and into the six-hole of a lineup that has been in need of some more consistency.
Of course, I hope he provides that jolt in the lineup (and that double he roped late on Sunday gives me wild dreams).
However, I just don’t want to put that expectation on him at this juncture. Again: we have to reevaluate the 2025 Red Sox at this point. Part of that is going to have to deal with the growing pains we’ve recently seen with Kristian Campbell, the growing pains we’re likely to see with Marcelo Mayer, and the growing pains we could certainly see when Roman Anthony gets called up. I’d love nothing more than for Mayer to hit the ground running, but it’s unfair to expect a 22-year-old—regardless of his pedigree as a prospect—to save us all when so many other cogs in this machine are not running at tip-top shape.
Regardless of those growing pains, it’s fun to see Mayer starting his MLB career. One way or another, he and the other two wunderkinds we’ve got are set to be part of the next great Red Sox team…even if we have to come to terms with the idea that the next great Red Sox team might not emerge until 2026 at the earliest.
The Story’s Plot Twist
Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images
I think the Red Sox have begun to transition shortstop Trevor Story out of a full-time role in the lineup.
Story’s Red Sox tenure has been marked by a few outstanding highs and very notable lows. The streets will never forget May 2022 Story and his other hot streaks have been HOT, but the injuries prior to 2025 had abbreviated his playing time in the first few years of his contract.
Similar deal in 2025: after a strong start to the year, Trevor Story has been…………(trying to think of a diplomatic way to put this)…………….not………..good. Poor, actually. Really poor. Trevor Story has been really poor, on both offense and defense.
The bat has completely disappeared. Just about everything under the hood—the expected metrics based on his quality of contact, his command over the zone in terms of chasing and whiffing, you name it—is among the bottom third at best across the league. His rolling xwOBA over his last 100 plate appearances have taken a nosedive: it’s gone from .364 on April 25 (pretty good!) to .222 as of Friday (very bad!). Entering play Sunday, his 60 wRC+ metric was good for ninth worst in the league among qualified hitters—and that figure bakes in his hot start.
It’s, admittedly, very funny to look at April 25 being the most recent benchmark for his rolling xwOBA metric when you consider that I was praising Story’s output in the April 21 edition of the Brushback. Oh, how times change. Since we’re revisiting that article from about a month ago (don’t claim that I’m not one to avoid accountability), let’s take a look at a line I had written regarding his output against fastballs compared to how he was mashing breaking pitches at the time:
While he’s not been tearing the cover off of fastballs so far in 2025, he’s always had success against heaters when you look at that same measuring stick: his slugging against fastballs year by year has never been below the .400.
With Story, I see a guy who has demonstrated time and time again that he’s able to hit fastballs well. If he’s able to continue to make life difficult for guys offering secondary stuff, that’s the recipe for a vital part of the middle of the order.
Fast forward to now, where Story is now slugging…………….uh………..a whopping .192 against heaters. It’s not like he’s getting so incredibly unlucky, either, as his expected slugging percentage against fastballs is now .334.
Click for my actual reaction to learning that information after re-reading what I wrote in April.
I mean, he’s just getting eaten alive by fastballs. Pitchers know that he can’t even keep up with 91 or 92 MPH, it seems. Easy for me as a blogger to say that, but I’m also not making eight-figures a year to do so. Hurlers are just destroying him with gas up and the zone, and he doesn’t have an answer for it. Every other pitch is played off of the fastball, generally speaking, and right now Story can’t hang with ‘em.
Additionally, his defense—a calling card of his profile in the past—hasn’t been good enough in recent weeks. Analytically speaking: his -4 defensive runs saved metric at a premium defensive position puts him in just the 7th percentile league-wide. Anecdotally speaking: it’s just been slow. Slow flips, slow turns, slow everything. Just not good enough for a shortstop.
If we’re talking about reevaluating this entire team, that includes Trevor Story’s role. He seems like a nice enough of a guy, and his veteran status is worth mentioning even briefly, but I don’t think you can currently justify giving him an every day role—especially with Mayer now in the fold. Perhaps he and David Hamilton form a platoon at short with Mayer taking over at third for the time being while Bregman is on the mend, or something to that effect, but Story could be phased out of set-it-and-forget-it status when the lineup is constructed.
Reevaluating where the team stands includes establishing where the standard of performance is. You cannot possibly argue that Story is currently meeting any standard of a team that wants to seriously make a case for being worthy of October baseball. To borrow a quote from Mikel Arteta: we cannot accept these standards.
Something has to change; in fact, it might have already changed. I don’t think Trevor Story is going to be DFA’d or anything, but I also don’t think he’s an everyday player now. The standards need to be established and upheld—this is part of that process.
Song of the Week: “Somebody Kill Me Please” by Adam Sandler
Yeah.
Same time and same place next week, friends! Go Sox.