What would a successful season look like in 2026 for the Washington Nationals?

The Washington Nationals are highly unlikely to make the playoffs in 2026. Paul Toboni knows that and so do Nationals fans. Even finishing above .500 feels like a pipe dream. However, that does not mean the Nats season is destined for failure. We are just going to have to look at things beyond the win/loss record. Here are some things that would make the Nats 2026 season a success.

Continued Growth of the Young Core of Position Players:

Despite the failure of the previous regime’s rebuild, the Nationals still have a group of promising young position players at the MLB level. The development of players like James Wood, Daylen Lile, Dylan Crews, Brady House and CJ Abrams will be crucial. If those players develop, this Nats season can be a success even if the team struggles to reach 75 games.

James Wood is the most important piece of this young core and his growth is paramount to the success of this team moving forward. In the first half, Wood looked like a potential MVP contender. He posted a .915 OPS with 24 homers. However, Wood really tailed off down the stretch due to out of control strikeout rates.

Wood has so much natural talent and he has the ceiling of a 40 home run, 20 stolen base guy. He is the only player on this team with top 10 player in baseball upside. Hopefully, this new staff can help him make adjustments and help him stay locked in for a full season.

He is not the only young position player this staff will need to develop though. Dylan Crews and Brady House showed they have a long way to go with their MLB performances last year. The talent is still there for both, especially Crews. It is critical for the health of the rebuild that at least one of those guys takes a big step next year.

There is also new catcher Harry Ford. Toboni’s first big move as Nats POBO was to acquire him in exchange for Jose A. Ferrer. We know Ferrer has big upside and a lot of team control. That means the Nats are going to have to turn Ford into a quality starting catcher to make this trade a win.

Given his production and pedigree, Ford has a good chance of becoming that. However, this new coaching staff will need to help him, especially on the defensive side of the ball. If Ford becomes a starting catcher, this trade is an easy win for the Nats. Overall, the Nats have a lot of position players that could break out. For this season to be a success, a few of them need to take major steps in the right direction.

Find Breakout Stars on the Mound:

The Nationals pitching staff has very few name brands, especially after trading away MacKenzie Gore. Given the names on the roster, it would be tough to project the Nats pitching staff to be even average. I would expect some blowup outings this year. However, the season could still be a success if a few Nats arms really break out.

My breakout candidate on the staff is Cade Cavalli. He has tremendous stuff and finally has a full, healthy offseason. There are a lot of smart people that really like what Cavalli has to offer. His fastball is in the upper 90’s and he has a filthy curveball to go with it. Cavalli’s changeup also shows major promise as well.

New pitching coach Simon Mathews will have a lot to work with here. However, Cavalli is far from a finished product. He gets hit harder than a guy with his stuff should. That comes down to his command within the zone. Cavalli was throwing strikes, but too many pitches were in the middle of the plate.

Sequencing is one thing a lot of Nats pitchers could improve. Last season, Nats pitchers were throwing way too many fastballs. We saw what happened when Kyle Finnegan cut his fastball usage after his trade to the Tigers. I would expect the Nats fastball usage to come way down this season.

Too many Nats pitchers were throwing their average heaters far too often. This applies to the likes of Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and relievers such as Jackson Rutledge. I think all of these pitchers will be leaning more on their secondary stuff this year.

Speaking of relievers, Paul Toboni is betting on internal improvement and his ability to find hidden gems. There is no clear closer right now, though my prediction would be that Clayton Beeter gets the 9th inning. Given his love for the waiver wire, I could really see Toboni churning through bullpen arms until he finds the right combination.

Even when the Nats were good, Mike Rizzo struggled to build bullpens. I have more faith in Toboni to find the right mix in the ‘pen. The Red Sox had a really good bullpen last year despite not having many big names besides Aroldis Chapman.

Whether it is Paxton Schultz, or Jackson Rutledge, or Cole Henry, I expect a couple of these under the radar bullpen arms to surprise us. I have no idea which ones will though. The pitching will likely struggle this year, but hopefully the Nats can find a few hidden gems in the rubble.

Development on the Farm:

While the MLB team will have the most eyeballs, some of the most important Nationals developments of 2026 will be taking place on the farm. Paul Toboni’s stated mission is to build a scouting and player development monster. A lot of that process will be taking place in the minors.

Toboni has already improved the Nats farm system with his trades, but that is only the first step of his process. He has placed a huge emphasis on improving players and building organizational depth. We will get a chance to see that in action on the farm.

Right now, the Nats farm is considered to be in the middle of the pack by most. However, I believe the Nats will have a top 10, if not top 5 farm by the end of the year. While some of that will be due to future trades and the draft, the main improvement will come from internal development.

The Nats have so many breakout candidates on the farm right now. It feels like at least a couple of them have to explode this year. There is finally a proper infrastructure around these talented players and a real focus on their development.

There may not be a ton of winning at the MLB level, but I think we will see a lot of wins on the farm. Paul Toboni is building this thing from the ground up. That means we will see success at the minor league levels before the MLB. While minor league records do not mean a ton, do not be surprised if these Nats farm teams win more games. It would be a good sign of improved depth in the system.

A lot of the Nats talent is at the lower levels right now. The Fred Nats in particular should be a lot of fun to watch. Following these guys from Low-A to the big leagues is very exciting. Hopefully, the guys we see on the Fred Nats right now are playing playoff games for the Nationals in 5 years.

What Does Success Look Like:

For 2026, winning a lot of games is not what will make the Nats season a success. Sure, it would be awesome if this team shocked the world and made the playoffs, but that is unlikely. There are also other ways to measure success for this team.

I get that it is tiring to have to measure success through development rather than wins, but that is the reality of the situation. The Nats are not built to win now. Hopefully this team can win more games than last year, but even if they win 65-70 games, the season can be successful if the right players take the right steps and the farm system is in a healthy position. The hope is that these moral victories will turn into actual victories in the future.

What would a successful season look like in 2026 for the Washington Nationals?

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