There are now 49 days remaining until Orioles Opening Day. That’s seven weeks from today that we’ll be back to real baseball. I’m not so sure we’ll be rid of the snow piles by then. WBC pitchers and catchers are four days away from reporting, with the rest of the pitchers and catchers arriving a day later. The first exhibition game is 15 days from today. It’s all getting close.

The last big starting pitching free agent question got settled last night. The Orioles are not the winners in the Framber Valdez derby. We may never know how seriously they competed. What we do know is that ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the Detroit Tigers are the team that’s landed Valdez on a three-year deal that will pay $115 million. That is a $38.3 million per year contract, a record for a left-handed starting pitcher, although the present day value will be less once deferrals (currently not reported) are calculated. In addition, Valdez has an opt-out after the second year of the deal.

Now that the Valdez business is resolved and the Orioles know he’s not coming here, should they try to pivot to a different remaining starting pitcher? I’ve been on the “Valdez or bust” train for a while, not so much because I was enthused about Valdez as because I just don’t think any of these other dudes are going to be the difference-makers that would be worth paying them $15+ million or whatever only to displace Dean Kremer from the rotation. Mike Elias might feel differently. So might you.

A second, obvious question arises: Should the Orioles have made an offer that would have been preferable to Valdez than this one? It’s hard to say what that might have been; maybe a deal with no deferrals, maybe one with an opt-out after just one single season. That’s a heck of a lot of money and it’s tough for any pitcher to really live up to that in even the best of circumstances. Valdez, as has been mentioned frequently through the offseason, is already 32 so there’s the question of how much he’ll decline, if any, through this contract.

Not having the high bid here is justifiable, I’d say. But also that’s making a bet on this group forming a competitive rotation until at least July: Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Cade Povich, Brandon Young, Trey Gibson, or some unforeseen miracle or disaster player. This is a bet that could pay off. It is also a bet that could fail spectacularly in a way that will leave people asking of Elias, “What did you think would happen, you idiot?” I would be wondering, at that point, if David Rubenstein was starting to move in the direction of being one of those people.

“What did you think would happen, you idiot?” was the basic result for the 2025 Orioles. The bet that they were good enough to muddle along until July and then address needs by trade failed hard.

For this year, Elias is also betting on dingers from Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward plus bounce-backs from the many disappointing hitters returning from last year’s Orioles. He’s betting on Rookie of the Year-competing performance from either or both of Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers. He’s betting on being able to make it with a bullpen of Ryan Helsley, Andrew Kittredge, and a bunch of guys nobody cares all that much about at this moment. Some of these bets feel better than others right now.

Against this backdrop, the biggest thing the Orioles had going on yesterday is that they announced the non-roster invitees to spring training. All players on the 40-man roster are automatically included for spring training, with non-roster invites making up the rest. Many of these were reported through the offseason when the players involved signed minor league deals that come with big league spring training invites. The team announced the following 30 non-roster invites yesterday afternoon:

LHP Luis De LeónLHP Andrew MagnoLHP Eric TorresLHP Josh WalkerRHP Jeisson CabreraRHP Hans CrouseRHP Nestor GermanRHP Trey GibsonRHP Keagan GilliesRHP Richard GuaschRHP Jean Carlos HenriquezRHP Enoli ParedesRHP Albert SuárezRHP Levi WellsRHP Cameron Weston

Of these, prospects who will hopefully do something interesting are: De León, German, Gibson, and Wells. One never knows who might go from spring training afterthought to a key player on the roster; not too long ago, Ryan O’Hearn was one such spring training invite. I follow Orioles news very closely and I have never seen the name Richard Guasch before in my life.

Ethan AndersonSilas ArdoinMaverick HandleySam HuffCreed Willems

You need a lot of catchers early in camp because there are also a lot of pitchers and somebody’s got to catch the five-wide bullpen sessions. I think Ardoin could end up as an occasional third catcher if he shows enough. Anderson and Willems are different flavors of prospect who can hope to get a little attention in the early days of camp.

José BarreroPayton EelesAron EstradaRyan NodaWilly VasquezLuis Vázquez

It’s too late for you to claim your spot as the Aron Estrada hype train conductor, because that’s me, but there’s still plenty of room for you to get on board. You might recall Eeles from being acquired earlier this offseason for Alex Jackson. Notably, Eeles is listed at 5’5”.

Enrique Bradfield Jr.Jud FabianJhonkensy NoelWill Robertson

Bradfield, in particular, will probably get some chances to play in early spring road games where many of the regular players stay back in Sarasota.

Orioles stuff you might have missed

FanGraphs projections for the 2026 Orioles make one thing clear (The Baltimore Banner)
Jon Meoli notes that the narrow gap between the Orioles and other AL East teams means that any improvement could be worth quite a lot. Valdez, we now know, will not be that improvement.

Top prospects among Orioles non-roster invitees (Orioles.com)
Jake Rill’s rundown of the non-roster guys focuses on a few who are prospects worth following. It will be nice if those guys can put themselves on the radar for later in the season.

Position preview: Colton Cowser the key to outfield success (The Baltimore Sun)
A lot is riding on those broken ribs turning out to be the reason why Cowser stunk from July onward.

Fans in Frederick excited about Keys return (Baltimore Baseball)
The Keys are an Orioles affiliate once again! I’m excited because driving to Frederick is better than driving to Aberdeen. Although I’ll probably still never do it.

How Baltimore is melting mountains of snow (The Baltimore Banner)
This article is more about things happening on the Ravens end of the Camden Yards sports complex than the Orioles end, but nonetheless, that is a lot of snow in Lot O and apparently it needs to be gone by March 7.

Birthdays and Orioles anniversaries

Nothing of particular note has happened on February 5 in Orioles history. With Valdez off the board, we can probably figure this is not going to change today.

There are a few former Orioles who were born on this day. They are: 2014 reliever Ryan Webb, 2002 reliever Chris Brock, and 1996-98 infielder/Baseball Hall of Famer Roberto Alomar.

Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you as well! Your birthday buddies for today include: tire magnate John Boyd Dunlop (1840), auto engineer André Citroën (1878), author William S. Burroughs (1914), baseball Hall of Famer Hank Aaron (1934), artist H. R. Giger (1940), and footballer Cristiano Ronaldo (1985).

On this day in history…

In 1901, J. P. Morgan officially incorporated the U. S. Steel corporation.

In 1918, American aerial gunner Stephen W. Thompson shot down a German plane, the first recognized aerial victory for someone in the U.S. military. Thompson was serving as the gunner for a French plane.

In 1945, General Douglas MacArthur fulfilled his vow to return to Manila.

In 1971, the Apollo 14 mission landed on the moon, with astronauts Alan Shepard and Edgar Mitchell walking on the surface. Shepard bookended a career that began with his being the first American in space with his command on this mission.

A random Orioles trivia question

I received a book of Orioles trivia for Christmas. I’ll ask a question in this space every time it’s my turn until I run out of questions or forget to ask one. If you are replying early in the day, please be polite and give your answer in spoiler text so that others arriving later have an opportunity to participate.

In 2005, I joined the Orioles and immediately went on an 11-game hitting streak. Who am I?

And that’s the way it is in Birdland on February 5. Have a safe Thursday.