We are just a few days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Camelback Ranch in Glendale, Arizona. I spent a lot of time in the car this week driving, and it gave me an opportunity to get caught up on numerous Chicago White Sox-related podcasts. It’s certainly been an interesting winter, if nothing else, for our beloved baseball team, and being delayed in hearing some of the commentary on the team’s moves this winter allowed me to really dissect the initial reactions with a level of objectivity.

The overall reaction to the winter had by Chris Getz and Co. has been overwhelmingly positive from local and national media, as well as many within the fanbase. But is it really warranted?

This past weekend, Anthony and I dusted off the microphones for the season premiere of the Sox On Tap Podcast, and we dove extensively into this topic (if you’re interested in hearing our musings and other typical hijinks, feel free to give it a listen).

Maybe I’m too cynical in my advanced age, or maybe I’m too scarred by the failures of two other rebuilds since 2013, but I just don’t see what others are seeing right now.

During last week’s episode, I mentioned a saying that is often echoed in my profession: “Don’t confuse activity with productivity.”

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No one can deny that the Sox have been active this winter, particularly in the last six weeks, but can we really say these transactions are going to move the needle in a meaningful way? Once again, I’m just not seeing what others are.

I’m not trying to say the offseason has been a disaster or even bad, because it hasn’t been. It’s been fine, honestly, but I think saying it’s anything more than that would be a stretch. I’ve liked several of the moves that have been made, as I believe they’re the right level of risk (my internal monologue echoes the famous Seinfeld scene where George says that to understand risk, we must first define risk) for where this team is in its competitive cycle. However, even among the moves I’ve liked, only one carries a significant level of upside that could put this team in a better position when things start to matter again.

The Good

The team’s signing of 25-year-old Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami is unequivocally the best move of the winter. I say that with the understanding that this move could fail tremendously if the first base import is unable to make consistent contact against high velocity, which was an issue playing in a league that has pitching not even close to that of the game’s highest level. If Murakami is unable to allow all world powers to be on display consistently, his two-year tenure on the Southside will go down as a flop. But you know what, that’s totally fine.

It’s fine because the Sox don’t have a first base prospect in the system that is being blocked by Murakami. They didn’t have to give up any player capital to acquire a player who should be entering his prime years. If he happens to fail, all that means is that money was depleted from the Reinsdorf Family Trust, and you all know I’m more than okay with that. This is the exact type of risk the team should be taking, because if Ryan Fuller and Co. can make the necessary swing adjustments to allow him to tap into that power with more consistency, this deal will likely go down as the best move of the Getz Era.

Getz wasn’t done with his Art Vandelay impression from early this offseason ,where he was just focusing on the importing and forgetting the exporting, as he also brought in Anthony Kay to provide more depth to a rotation in need of reinforcements. I applaud Getz for making a rational move to provide protection to a rotation that is littered with question marks and uncertainty, as the team saw limited development from its young starters a season ago. Kay himself isn’t a sure thing, despite coming back from a successful career reinvention in the NPB. But again, it is a move with marginal risk that should, on paper, help this team cover a significant innings shortfall from its starters as we head into the season.

Adding Sean Newcomb to the bullpen, where he can be deployed in a variety of roles, will give second-year manager Will Venable flexibility with how he wants to manage his pitching staff. Newcomb provides a veteran presence to a bullpen that is very light in this area. Relievers are very fickle from year to year, but Newcomb’s addition was sound, in theory, so let’s see how it plays out in practice. These initial moves put the team in a better position than where they ended the 2025 season and gave reason for increased optimism as the team approached camp.

The Bad and the Ugly

Now, to the other side of the coin. For much of the last two years, we’ve had to hear about the Luis Robert Jr. saga, and we were left to wonder when his time on the Southside would come to an end. Well, it did a few weeks ago in a move that was nothing more than a blatant salary dump. The New York Mets absorbed the entirety of Robert Jr.’s contract, much to the pleasure of he who shall not be named, and the Sox got back a failed former Top 100 prospect whose best known for being the brother of a top 5 player in the sport. Look, I know Robert Jr.’s tenure on the Southside was tumultuous and the last two years provided far more downs than ups, but this move just left so much to be desired.

National prognosticators and sycophants to he who shall not be named have tried to dress up this trade and the subsequent moves that followed as a major remaking of the roster. However, they’re confusing quantity with quality, in my opinion. Luisangel Acuna, Seranthony Dominguez, Austin Hays, and Jordan Hicks are essentially filling the financial hole left by Robert’s departure, but are they going to provide a meaningful equivalent in terms of production?

Even given the volatility of Luis Robert Jr.’s experience, I struggle to see how these players, each with a checkered performance history, will provide greater value. It really looks like we’re just replacing one busted-up piece of furniture with more quantity attained at a neighborhood estate sale.

Tempering Expectations

Another theme that seems to be perpetuating within White Sox nation is that the team will be able to take many of these players that have joined the organization on short-term deals and flip them for meaningful prospect pieces that can play a role on the next quasi-competitive Sox team, whenever that comes.

Folks, I need you to take a step back and breathe for a second because I’ve got some news for you. The returns aren’t going to be what you think. Remember what this team got for Erick Fedde when he was traded after a solid first half two years ago? Remember all the other failed top prospects and players in Low A that the team acquired in the early trades of Rebuild 2.0? Surely, this time will be different, though, right?

Look, could this team flip players like Kay, Dominguez, Hays, or Hicks for a player that turns into something of substance? Sure, but we really need to understand that circumstances like that are the exception rather than the rule. To be banking on adding significant pieces to the team’s prospect base for these types of players, simply isn’t realistic. I hate to pour cold water on all of you who think so, but I’ve been through this before. The hope is that these newly acquired players help this team win more games this year and avoid a fourth consecutive 100-loss season, but to expect anything more is just not realistic in my view.

I know it seems like I’m down on what this team has done this winter, but I’m really not. As I said earlier, the moves have been fine. They should provide marginal improvement to the team’s win-loss record in 2026, but only Murakami represents a move that could pay dividends to the next competitive Sox team. I understand that the team is limiting its financial exposure ahead of the impending work stoppage, but I would’ve liked to see the reshaping of the roster done in a different manner.

With all of this being said, I’m very excited to head out to the desert in a few weeks. We all know, it’s in the Cactus League where you #SetTheTone for the season.