Orioles pitchers and catchers are set to arrive in Sarasota as Spring Training begins, and we move a step closer to Opening Day.
Some quick hits on what I’m thinking about.
Gunnar is the Most Valuable Oriole before a pitch is thrown in this ’26 season.
Who are the Most Important O’s?
Let’s not include the starting pitchers, as their importance is I think understood.
i.e… whose performance and availability is vital to the fortunes of the ’26 O’s because what their absence or lack of performance would mean.
A couple that come to mind:
Helsley – The bullpen has questions. Things can come together if he’s an All-Star caliber closer, and become a bit precarious if he’s not.
Cowser – The O’s need him to rebound offensively, and be adequate defensively in CF, especially with Ward not going to help much glove wise in LF. If Cowser struggles… Bradfield does give you some security (another option), but having to depend on Bradfield would not be ideal.
Rutschman – If the line up stays healthy, they should slug better and score more than last year. If the lineup is going to have real bite, he has to be better. I’d like to see him lose the pronounced upper-cut swing focused on launch angle, and focus on crushing liners up the middle, and filling the gaps. 37 doubles in his last 893 ab’s is ridiculous.
Westburg – Jordan was limited to 85 games in 2025. If he suits up for 150, that’s a big lift.
Bradish – He will be awesome when available. But after all of the time he’s missed the last two years, how many innings does he have?
Rogers – I hope he’s a consistent 3rd that flashes upside. As with Bradish, there is also a question of many innings he can provide. (133 in ’21 is his career high.)
Baz – I like that he regularly took the ball last year for Tampa Bay. Can he do it again? Can he take a step forward with his stuff and be a league average 3rd starter?
Kremer – Will be a solid 4th or 5th starter, with one of his main attributes being he makes his scheduled starts. 32 starts, 172.2 innings in ’23. 24 starts, 129.2 innings in ’24. 31 starts, 171.2 innings in ’25. ERA each year between 4.10 and 4.19.
Eflin – Says he feels good, and that his back issues are behind him. If he approximates Kremer’s production, that would be a huge win. I would think the O’s would slow play him a bit, and that Wells begins the year in the rotation.
Rotation Depth
Wells – I think Tyler would probably be solid for the 1st half before tiring out. If they go with Eflin out of the gate, or if they add another starters, than Wells can begin the year in the pen and that should help him get through the season.
Povich – I don’t have a lot of confidence in him as a starter, but he did give the O’s 112.1 innings last year. As a reliever and spot starter, there is value.
Young – I have less confidence in Young than I do with Povich as a starter, but as with Povich – you could do worse than Young as a reliever and spot starter. Young’s lone win last year was a high quality start at Houston last August.
Another 2/3 starter that you can expect to regularly take the ball and pencil in for 170 quality innings would really help minimize the chance the rotation flames out.
There is potential for the rotation to be solid to good.
There is certainly upside potential, especially if Rogers is anywhere close to what he was with the O’s in ’25.
There is also potential for things to go sideways.
Maybe Bradish and Rogers are both strong, but tire out?
Maybe Eflin’s back flares up? Maybe Baz doesn’t take a step-forward?
There were 25 starters last year who had an fWAR of 3.0 or higher.
Of those 25 starters, only 5 (Merrill Kelly on Arizona, Logan Webb on San Francisco, Jose Soriano on the Angels, Joe Ryan on Minnesota, and Paul Skenes on Pittsburgh) are on teams not expected to contend (within their divisions) in ’26.
Arizona signed Kelly as a Free Agent in January, so let’s exclude him.
Soriano is young and cheap, so let’s exclude him.
Skenes is arguably the best starter in baseball, and the Pirates have four remaining years of control.
Pittsbugh isn’t expected to contend in the NL Central this year, but they do have one of the best farm systems.
Maybe they exceed expectations this year.
Maybe they build a contender by ’28, and get to have Skenes lead that effort.
I personally think it’s more likely they don’t contend in ’26 and ’27, and that throwing all their eggs into contending in ’28 with Skenes makes less sense vs. trading him for a huge combination of talent and team control now – augmenting their already strong system.
But I understand that Pittsburgh will keep him around to sell tickets, have someone to point to, and with hopes that things come together for them earlier than ’28.
So, let’s exclude him as well.
That leaves us with:
San Francisco who is projected as 3rd in the NL West at +1700 (via FanDuel)
&
Minnesota who is projected as 4th in the AL Central at +700.
It feels to me like Webb or Ryan should be obtainable for the O’s.
I’d be significantly more confident in the O’s rotation with either of them.
Webb signed a 5 year $90M extension with the San Francisco Giants in April 2023, covering the 2024–2028 seasons. ($23M in ’26, $23M in ’27, $24M in ’28)
Ryan and the Minnesota Twins agreed to a 1 year $6.2M contract for 2026, avoiding salary arbitration. The deal includes a $6.1 million salary for the 2026 season and a $13 million mutual option for 2027
The Twins have consistently said Ryan is not available.
Maybe their thinking is they can surprise in ’26.
Or that they can compete in ’27, and his contract is very affordable.
So, maybe he isn’t realistic?
If I’m Orioles GM Mike Elias, I’m presenting an offer, and forcing the Twins to say no.
Minnesota has been shredding payroll.
Giving them a package of cost-controlled options they could utilize, would figure to be attractive.
Maybe the O’s can’t make a trade for Webb or Ryan work.
What is available to them is pursuing Free Agent Zac Gallen.
Gallen’s production has dropped each year since 2022, so I’ve been lukewarm on the O’s pursuing him.
One thing he has going for him, is that he’s averaged 31.5 starts the last four years, along with averaging 183.5 innings.
That’s nothing to sneeze at, when there are real concerns about how many innings Bradish and Rogers can provide.
If Gallen gave the 2026 Orioles 30 starts, and 170 innings with league average 4th starter production – that would greatly increase the odds of the Orioles rotation holding up.
Current projections are a 2 to 4 year contract at $40-$80M.
If you are looking at his basic numbers, or his Baseball Savant page; there isn’t a lot to be excited about from his ’25 season.
But even if he only replicated ’25 (and didn’t rebound closer to his ’22,’23,’24 histories); he’s likely to be a significant step-up from what the O’s would get from Wells (once Wells tried out), Povich, or Young.
I think the Orioles figure to be a good team.
As I’ve written numerous times, I think the playoffs is largely a roll of the dice and fun with small sample sizes. So, if you get to the post-season, who knows what happens once there?
The first key to post-season success, is actually reaching the post-season.
As is, I think the O’s are capable of winning the American League East, but their currently projected 4th in the division with +450 odds.
They are tied with Houston as having the 10th best odds (+2200) to win the World Series.
The Astros and O’s are looking up at the Yankees, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Red Sox with better odds amongst other American League teams.
I think the O’s have to be focusing on their fellow East teams New York, Toronto, and Boston.
The thought process should be, “What do we have to do to win the East, and not be dependent on one of the three Wild Cards?”
Of course a large portion of that will come down to how the teams fare head-to-head.
Another part is who is best positioned depth wise to survive the rigors of a 162 game regular season?
At FanGraphs, the LA Dodgers are given a 27.2% chance of winning the World Series.
That’s an extreme outlier; nobody gets that high a chance typically.
The O’s are given a 3.7% chance, wit NYY at 5.9%, Toronto at 4.4%, and Boston at 4.1%.
I think the post-season is largely a flip of the coin.
I think the Orioles are a starter short, and the attention should be on getting further rotation help to incrementally increase the O’s odds of winning the East.
Chris Stoner
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.