The Pittsburgh Pirates (19-35) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (26-27) open a 3-game set Monday. First pitch from Chase Field in Phoenix is set for 8:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Pirates vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Diamondbacks won 4-2 last year

The Pirates split a 4-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers in Pittsburgh, wrapping up the set with a 6-5 loss as +142 underdogs Sunday with the Over (8.5) cashing. The Pirates had a 5-3 lead and a 90.1% win probability with 1 out in the top of the eighth inning, according to ESPN Analytics, but gave up 3 runs in the frame. Despite the loss, Pittsburgh is 4-2 in its last 6 games — its best 6-game stretch of the season.

The Diamondbacks have dropped 5 straight — for the first time this season — and were swept in 3 games at the St. Louis Cardinals. They lost 4-3 as +111 underdogs in the Sunday finale with the total (7) pushing. 3B Eugenio Suárez (3-for-4, 2 RBIs) singled in 2 runs in the first inning Sunday and scored in the sixth on a base hit by DH Pavin Smith (2-for-3, 1 RBI).

Pirates at Diamondbacks projected starters

LHP Andrew Heaney vs. RHP Ryne Nelson

Heaney (3-3, 2.91 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 55 2/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 3-1 home victory vs. Cincinnati Reds Wednesday2025 road stats: 1-1, 2.45 ERA (22 IP, 6 ER), 12 H, 6 BB, 19 K in 4 starts2024 vs. Diamondbacks: 1 relief appearance (May 28), win, 2 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 4-2 home victory with Texas RangersCareer vs. Diamondbacks (regular season): 1-0, 7.71 ERA (7 IP, 6 ER), 6 H, 5 BB, 6 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance

Nelson (1-1, 4.60 ERA) makes his third start and 12th appearance. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 31 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 4-3 setback in 10 innings at LA Dodgers Tuesday2025 home stats: 1-1, 4.41 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 13 H, 5 BB, 16 K in 1 start and 5 relief appearancesCareer vs. Pirates: 1 road start (Aug. 4, 2024), no-decision, 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-5 victory

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Pirates at Diamondbacks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:01 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Pirates +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Diamondbacks -185 (bet $185 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-130) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+105)Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)Pirates at Diamondbacks picks and predictionsPrediction

Diamondbacks 5, Pirates 3

It’s unlikely that the Diamondbacks (-185) will lose a sixth straight game. However, the preferred play is to bet them on the run line at greater odds.

PASS on the ML.

The Pirates are just 8-11 on the run line as away underdogs this season, per TeamRankings.com. While they have won 4 of their last 6 games straight up, it’s unlikely they can maintain that level of success with the worst offense in MLB, averaging 3.04 runs per game.

BET DIAMONDBACKS -1.5 (+105).

Both teams have been profitable Under bets this season with the Under going 31-20-3 (60.8%) in Pittsburgh’s games and 26-22-5 (54.2%) for Arizona.

Nelson has allowed 2 runs or fewer in both of his starts this season, while Heaney has allowed a total of just 4 runs in 16 innings over his last 3 outings.

BET UNDER 9 (+100).

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