The Cincinnati Reds had one of the best closers in baseball in 2025. However, will Emilio Pagan be able to replicate his success in 2026 and beyond?

The Reds re-signed Pagan to a two-year contract this offseason after he recorded a 2.88 ERA and saved 32 games in 2025. Pagan finished fifth in saves in all of MLB last year. There’s no question it was a strong campaign.

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However, before the 2025 season, he had not recorded more than 10 saves in a single year since 2019 — when he saved 20 games with the Tampa Bay Rays. Pagan had not worked as a closer in recent years before 2025, so one has to wonder if he will be able to find continued success in the role.

Many closers in the past have had one or two good years before faltering. That may not happen to Pagan, but he needs to prove he can consistently close games out once again in 2026.

Pagan’s performance in 2025 was extremely impressive. He ranked in the 90th percentile for chase percentage and 89th percentile for strikeout percentage. While he is not the hardest throwing pitcher in the league, Pagan’s average fastball (95.8 MPH) checked in at the 75th percentile. Overall, the veteran reliever was in the 88th percentile for pitching run value.

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Are there any concerns?

His average exit velocity was closer to league average at the 60th percentile. His ground ball rate was abysmal, checking in at the third percentile. Pagan got away with his inability to keep the ball on the ground consistently due to a high strikeout percentage. Hitters will adjust, though, so Pagan will have to adjust as well.

In addition to his low ground ball rate, Pagan’s 38.8 fly ball percentage was his worst mark since 2021. The strikeouts helped to limit the damage, but if the strikeouts decline and the fly ball rate stays the same, that could lead to an uptick in home runs surrendered.

With all of that being said, Pagan’s underlying numbers are promising for the most part. The Reds are going to trust him as their closer once again — as they should. He earned the role last year to say the least.

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His performance will be worth closely monitoring, however. Pagan is not a proven closer and he is 34 years old, so it will be interesting to see if he can string multiple successful seasons together in the role.