13. Sterlin Thompson (314 points, 19 ballots)
Fair or not, Thompson’s progress will be judged in part by Rockies fans by the fact his draft pick (31st-overall in 2022) was the only compensation Colorado received for Trevor Story leaving in free agency, in lieu of a deadline trade. Thompson signed for a slot bonus of just over $2.43 million as a productive draft-eligible sophomore college hitter from the SEC. The 24-year-old 6’4” lefty hitter, righty thrower split time between second base and the outfield in college at Florida, but as a professional he’s played everywhere except shortstop and catcher. In 2025 though he was mostly a left fielder or DH with a little right field action.
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Mid-season 2025 Rank: 18
High Ballot: 6
Mode Ballot: 13, 14, 15
Future Value: 40+, platoon outfielder
Contract Status: 2022 First Round, University of Florida, 40 Man Roster, three options remaining
MLB ETA: 2026
Thompson mashed his way to Double-A by the end of his first full year in 2023 and had a strong stint in that year’s Arizona Fall League, hitting .338/.460/.475 with nine extra base hits in 80 PA. That led to some top 100 discussion for Thompson, but it wasn’t a smooth ride for him in 2024. Thompson went back to Hartford, where he was 0.6 years younger than average. Thompson wasn’t bad offensively — his .245/.319/.385 line in 518 plate appearances with 13 HR among his 35 XBH and 12/16 steals translates to an above average 103 wRC+. Still, it was below his 2023 level and certainly below expectations for fans and scouts alike, especially given that he slid down the defensive spectrum (from second base to left field).
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In 2025, Thompson got the bump up to Triple-A Albuquerque. As the team’s primary left fielder on a team that has several highly regarded outfield prospects, Thompson’s .296/.392/.519 batting line in 513 plate appearances — including 18 homers, eight triples, and 28 doubles with 12 steals — looked pretty good. Of course, the hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League took the air a bit out of those numbers, but his production was still a very respectable 118 wRC+. The lefty hitter has some pretty big platoon splits, with a strong OPS against righties (.950) vs. his mark against southpaws (.793). In 101 games in the outfield (95 in left), Thompson committed six errors but also added nine outfield assists.
Those full season numbers look pretty good, but the trajectory was even better. Thompson started the 2025 season off very poorly, hitting for a .562 OPS in April, but after that Thompson was excellent. His monthly OPS numbers after the tough start were 1.103 in May, .935 in June, .783 in July, a scalding 1.222 in August, and a 1.013 total in September. Thompson cut his strikeouts year over year by 2.7% while raising his walks 2%, which is also a positive development.
Those developments were enough to earn Thompson a 40-man roster spot this off-season. Here’s a good piece by Manny Randwana of MLB.com on Thompson’s 2025 after he earned that 40-man roster spot.
Here’s some video of Thompson from Albuquerque last year:
For a look at the swing from a side profile, here’s Thompson hitting a double in Triple-A in April.
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Keith Law of the Athletic moved Thompson up to sixth in the system earlier this month (Law at one point ranked Thompson 70th overall in MLB):
Thompson has always been a bat-first prospect and he continued to hit the ball hard, peaking at 112.9 mph with a 90th percentile EV of 105.1. He didn’t hit breaking stuff that well even with the benefit of altitude, and now that he’s ensconced in the outfield, there’s more pressure on the bat. He could get to everyday status, more likely sticking around a while as a sometime regular and more frequent bench/platoon bat, starting this year.
Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slots Thompson as a 45 FV player, fourth in the system as a left fielder with a 50 future hit tool to go along with 50 power (as of last January):
Thompson is a left-handed Miguel Vargas of sorts, a bat-only prospect without superlative physicality. Built in the Daniel Murphy and Nolan Schanuel mold, Thompson isn’t an especially mobile athlete, and he has trended down the defensive spectrum during the last few years from 2B/3B to 1B/LF, where he isn’t particularly sound. Thompson has great hands in the batter’s box, his pretty swing generates airborne contact from pole to pole, and he does not miss mistakes. He’s going to actualize the power he has, but it will only be fair pop unless something about his physicality changes drastically in his mid-20s. Now a career .270/.345/.430 hitter in the minors, Thompson has a roughly average contact and power combination undercut a bit by a lack of plate discipline. It’s enough to consider him a high-probability platoon piece, but not enough to consider him a foundational everyday player at the positions he’s capable of playing.
MLB Pipeline ranks Thompson 15th in the system as a 45 FV player (as an OF) with a 50 hit tool:
The Rockies think the adjustments Thompson made as the season went on bode well for him reaching his offensive ceiling. He still has a smooth left-handed swing and is capable of using the whole field, hitting the ball hard for extra bases. He’s had a little difficulty keeping weight on his 6-foot-3 frame, but he showed up in Arizona after his offseason more physical, which should help him get to a little more power. Because he trusts his feel to hit so much, he sometimes isn’t patient enough and increased discipline could allow him to get more pitches to drive.
The hardest thing to figure out has been where Thompson could play defensively. He’s seen time at third, second and first on the dirt, but he may have finally found a home in left field, looking more athletic than he has anywhere on the infield. Removing defensive stress could also help him unlock his offensive potential, with the knowledge it’s the bat they were buying in the first place.
John Trupin of Baseball Prospectus ranked Thompson 18th last January:
Contrary to many of his contemporaries in the system, Thompson is a bat-first prospect whose ability to cover an outfield corner is in question. Previously trusted with greater responsibility at the hot corner, Thompson played just a single game at third in 2024, covering first most after a corner outfield role. Suffice to say, the pressure on Thompson’s bat grew significantly, and it’s not clear he met the challenge. Precisely average at a 100 DRC+ in Double-A Hartford across 518 plate appearances, Thompson’s swing is still slightly longer and floatier than may be ideal. He coils his body as he loads, in a move that generates significant bat speed but can leave him closed off as he attempts to whip the bat through the zone. The swing is well planed to elevate line drives, but leaves him little recourse when fooled, and does not create as much over the fence pop as might be necessary to cover his athletic but limited efforts in the field.
Thompson’s 2025 season (especially the post-April performance) was quite encouraging for his future big league prospects given the improved production and plate discipline. He’ll enter spring training with a slim chance to crack the Opening Day roster, but if he doesn’t do so, Thompson will be one of the first options for the Rockies (along with fellow PuRP Zac Veen) for a big league call-up. The most likely outcome may be that Thompson gets a few different stints in the big leagues this year.
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In Thompson, I see a hit-over-power prospect with limited usable defensive utility where the hit tool will need to carry him to the Show. To make that work, he needs his plate discipline improvements from 2025 and the improved ability to get his power into games to stick moving forward — a narrow path to be sure, but not an impossible one. The hit tool the most important one and Thompson has big league potential there, which is why (despite the limited utility he may offer elsewhere) Thompson is a 40+ FV player for me, ranking 14th on my list.
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