Should the Diamondbacks win the series?
The short answer is yes!
The Pirates started May with a seven-game losing streak. After that, they won 7 out of 16 games. FanGraphs projects them to win 71 games this season.
The Pirates’ batters have the least power in the Majors. For the season in games thru 10 May, their ISO and SLG ranked 29th in the Majors. More recently, those stats were worse. In games thru 20 May, their .102 ISO and .328 SLG ranked 30th in the Majors.
On the other side of the equation, the Diamondbacks are due to break out of their losing streak. In their last five games, four games were lost by 1 run.
Three Pirates to watch during the series.
Paul Skenes, starting pitcher. Last season, he won NL rookie of the year, and was third in the Cy Young voting. It is likely he will pitch in this series!
Don Kelly, the new manager for the Pirates. In 2007, he made his debut in the Majors playing for the Pirates. In 2008, he played for the AAA sidewinders (minors team for Diamondbacks). Although he never again played for the Pirates or the Diamondbacks, he stuck in the Majors from 2009 to 2016, which was a long career as a player.
Oneil Cruz, center fielder. 116 OPS+ (update) and 18 stolen bases (update). Let’s look at how he ranked (games thru 21 May):
Strengths:
28.9 ft/sec sprint speed, #42 in Majors (Carroll ranks higher, McCarthy tied his sprint speed)
97.2 MPH arm strength, #1 in Majors
78.9 MPH bat speed, #1 in Majors
Weaknesses:
Seeing the ball. 34.6% whiff rate. Among batters with at least 200 pitches, only 29 had worse whiff rates. All 12 Diamondbacks with more than 200 pitches had better whiff rates.
Solidly hitting the ball. 22.4% squared up swings, ranked #178 in Majors. Highest ranking Diamondbacks were Perdomo (36%), Moreno (32.4%), Thomas (32.3), and Naylor (31.5%).
Defense. Zero OAA, ranked #126 in Majors. Highest ranking Diamondbacks were Perdomo (5), Carroll(2), and Tawa (1). Another defense statistic was negative 9 DRS.
What to look for each day.
Monday, 5:10 PM MST.
Andrew Heaney. In his last 3 starts, he allowed a total of 4 earned runs in 16 innings. The upside for the Diamondbacks is that the Pirates managed to lose 2 of those 3 games.
Kyle Nelson. This season he started two games (both in May). He allowed a total of 3 earned runs in 9.1 innings. Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks lost both games.
These starting pitchers are excellent. Which team will win the game is a tossup.
Tuesday, 6:40 PM MST.
Mike Burrows. Last season he pitched one game (3.1 innings in relief). This season, on 22 May he made his debut as a starter. He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings against the Brewers.
Corbin Burnes. Recently, his pitching was most excellent! From 30 April to 21 May, he pitched 21 whole innings (22 innings including partial innings) (85 batters) without allowing an earned run (hat tip to Jack Sommers for his comment in the most recent AZ Snake Pit Round Table). Although he improved walks from 12% of batters in April to 8% of batters in May, his walks remain elevated compared to 6% last season (hat tip to Ben Seigel for his recent AZ Snake Pit article).
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Diamondbacks.
Wednesday, 12:40 PM MST.
Paul Skenes. In his last 3 starts, he allowed 3 earned runs in 20 innings. Wow!
Zac Gallen. In his last 3 starts, he allowed a total of 14 earned runs in 16.1 innings. Perhaps he will turn things around in this game.
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Pirates.