Kyle Tucker and Jackson Chourio represent two very different paths to fantasy value in 2026 drafts: the proven five-category veteran versus the rising young star on the brink of a breakout. With their ADPs sitting just a few picks apart, fantasy managers must decide whether to prioritize stability or chase the next big leap.
OF7 – Kyle Tucker, Los Angeles Dodgers (NFBC ADP – 17)
Over the past two seasons, Tucker has failed to approach his breakout year in 2023 (.284/97/29/112/30 over 574 at-bats).
He played well over his first 60 games (.266/42/19/40/10 over 214 at-bats) in 2024, putting him on pace for career highs in runs (108) and home runs (49) with 103 RBIs with 550 at-bats. Over this stretch, he had more walks (46) than strikeouts (41). Unfortunately, what looked like a minor lower leg issue in early June turned into three months on the injury list. His bat shined again over his final 18 games (23-for-63 with 14 runs, four home runs, and nine RBIs), but Tucker only stole one base.
Last season, he played at a high level in April (.279/26/7/27/8 over 122 at-bats), which carried over his first three months (.291/61/17/52/20 over 313 at-bats). Tucker lost his swing over his next 187 at-bats (.225/30/5/21/5) while missing 21 games in September with a calf issue.
His walk rate (14.6) has been an area of strength over the past two seasons, and he is still challenging to strikeout (14.7%). Tucker posted a five-year low in his average hit rate (1.744), but remains in any areas to deliver 30+ home runs with 550 at-bats. He came to the plate with 336 runners on base, well below his best three seasons (405, 406, and 468).
Tucker posted a career low hard-hit rate (40.2%) and HR/FB rate (11.8%), with a step back in his exit velocity (90.1) and barrel rate (10.8%). He continues to have a flyball swing path (44.8%) and a home run-inducing launch angle (17.2).
Kyle Tucker 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Fantasy Outlook: Based on his approach, Tucker has the skill set to post a high-floor five-category season (.275/90/30/90/25), with more upside, thanks to the Dodgers signing him for $240 million for four-seasons. His price point is fair, and I don’t see much rise in his ADP after Tucker signs a new contract.
Breaking: Kyle Tucker is signing with the Dodgers, per @JeffPassan pic.twitter.com/THEES0K2gg
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 16, 2026OF8 – Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers (NFBC ADP – 21)
Milwaukee Brewers right fielder Jackson Chourio (11) reacts to striking out against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the fifth inning during game two of the NLCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at American Family Field. | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
Over the past two seasons, Chourio posted almost identical stats in every offensive category. He finished with 21 more at-bats despite missing 31 games due to a hamstring injury. His FPGscore ranked him 38th (3.11) last season, compared to 28th in 2024 (3.00).
His season started with success in April (.271/21/6/24/2 over 133 at-bats). Chourio has a dull May (.237/15/3/10/9 over 118 at-bats) and September (.200/14/3/10/3 over 95 at-bats). He played well against left-handed pitching (.343/29/7/29/10 over 137 at-bats).
Chourio lowered his strikeout rate (20.5%) while taking fewer walks (5.1%). His exit velocity (89.3%) and hard-hit rate (42.3%) slipped slightly while maintaining the same launch angle (10.6). He upped his barrel rate (9.7% – 7.8% in 2024). Chourio had a more balanced swing path last year, but he finished with a lower HR/FB rate (12.4%).
Milwaukee signed Chourio for $1.8 million in 2021 at age 17. Over his three seasons in the minors, he hit .286 with 194 runs, 47 home runs, 191 RBIs, and 68 stolen bases over 1,090 at-bats. In 2023, 510 of his 531 at-bats came at AA (.280/84/22/89/42). His walk rate (8.1) and strikeout rate (20.6) were about league average.
Jackson Chourio 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Fantasy Outlook: Last year, there were visions of Chourio developing into a 20/40 player with help in the three other categories. His 2026 ADP suggests the high-stakes market expects him to make the expected jump this year. The rise in his average hit rate (1.716) gives a chance to push his home runs total close to 30. I see a bright shade of green in his profile, highlighted by the Brewers’ development into a much higher-scoring team last season (806 runs – 3rd). Let’s buy his 2025 hype a year later.
Tucker offers the safer profile, with a long track record of plate discipline and five-category production that fits perfectly on a Dodgers team built to score runs. Chourio, meanwhile, carries more risk but also the clearest path to a true breakout, making him the better swing for managers willing to bet on growth over reliability.
Top 5 Fantasy Baseball Outfielders According To ADP
Check out the top five outfielders according to ADP from our friends at the NFBC:
Aaron JudgeJuan SotoRonald Acuna Jr.Corbin CarrollJulio RodriguezMore Fantasy Sports On SI News: