First base dries up quickly in 2026 fantasy drafts, making proven bats with volume and bankable power more valuable than ever. Matt Olson and Bryce Harper both come at discounted ADPs, but they offer very different paths to profit depending on how you build your roster.
1B4 – Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (NFBC ADP – 55)
At first glance, Olson is a slam-dunk better value than Pete Alonso based on both players’ early ADPs. He finished with the same batting average while posting a competitive floor in runs (98), home runs (29), and RBIs (95) while coming to the plate with 460 runners on base. Olson finished 33rd in FPGscore (3.54) for hitters, which fits his current price point.
His strikeout rate (24.3%) has been in a tight range over the past four seasons, while his walk rate (12.6%) has remained favorable. He graded well exit velocity (93.3), launch angle (14.8), barrel rate (14.3%, and hard-hit rate (53.2%). His HR/FB rate (16.0%) has been below his career average (20.4%) four times over the past five years.
Olson was a better player against left-handed pitching (.281/22/6/30 over 196 at-bats). Over his final 270 at-bats, he hit .289 with 46 runs, 12 home runs, 37 RBIs, and one steal.
Last season, the Braves played without Ronald Acuna for 67 games and Austin Riley for 60 games, creating lower scoring chances for Atlanta. They finished 13th in runs scored (724), 223 fewer than in 2023 (947) when Olson and Acuna had career seasons.
Matt Olson 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Fantasy Outlook: Olson has one of the better RBI opportunities in baseball. The Braves have the nucleus to be a top offensive team in 2026 if their star players stay healthy. I see value in multiple Braves bats this year. Olson hasn’t missed a game in four seasons while offering the skill set to deliver a 100/35/100 floor. His batting average should fall in a neutral to slightly positive range. I don’t believe he’s a player I want to finesse in drafts.
1B5 – Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (NFBC ADP – 59)
Philadelphia Phillies infielder Bryce Harper (3) watches on from the dugout before his first at bat of the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. | Allan Henry-Imagn Images
Harper has been in Major League Baseball for 14 seasons, but he has never been the best player in any of those years.  His bat peaked in 2015 (.330/118/42/99/6 over 521 at-bats). Harper has three other seasons with at least 30 home runs (2018 – 34, 2019 – 35, 2021 – 35, and 2024 – 30).
Over the previous five seasons, he missed 167 games, costing him 20.6% of his playing time and stats. His success over this span translates to 94 runs, 36 home runs, 89 RBIs, and 13 steals if he were on the field for 150 games. His batting average (.287) was an asset over his last five seasons.
His exit velocity (91.3) last season matched his career average while continuing to have a hard-hit rate (47.7%) above his career average (45.8%). Harper lost some of his line drive rate (18.1% – 22.7% in 2024) last season, resulting in a spike in ground balls (43.6%) and a reasonable flyball rate (38.3%).
Harper missed three and a half weeks last June with a right wrist injury. Over his last 264 at-bats, he hit .273 with 39 runs, 18 home runs, 41 RBIs, and four steals. His average hit rate (1.863) is trending higher, but Harper had weakness in his RBI rate (14), with a five-year low in his contract batting average (.345). He continues to take walks (12.1%), with a slightly better than league average strikeout rate (20.9%).
Bryce Harper 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Fantasy Outlook: Harper brings a professional bat and a reasonable floor across four categories if he stays healthy. He must produce better with runners on base. The direction of the Phillies’ lineup doesn’t have an explosive scoring feel, but Philadelphia finished eighth in runs scored (778) last year. Possible 90/30/90/10 season with help in batting average, which works for his more favorable price point this draft season.
Matt Olson vs. Bryce Harper 2026 Fantasy Baseball Verdict
Olson profiles as one of the safest power investments on the board, with elite durability and a realistic path back to triple-digit RBIs if Atlanta’s lineup stays healthy. Harper carries more risk due to missed time, but his across-the-board production and favorable price make him a strong fallback option for managers who miss out on the top tier at first base. Ultimately, Olson has the slight edge due to his safe floor and reliable health.
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