The Detroit Tigers have a win total of 85.5 entering the 2026 season, according to the latest MLB win totals market at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

Tigers Over/Under Wins 2026

Over 85.5 wins: -110
Under 85.5 wins: -110

Tigers Win Total Prediction 2026

Per the updated MLB betting lines, I lean toward the under on the Tigers’ win total of 85.5 for the 2026 season. I’d rather wait to see if this line climbs a bit more before opening day.

Detroit’s win total jumped a bit after signing starters Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander. With back-to-back Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal leading the way, the Tigers’ rotation now ranks second in the majors, according to RosterResource at FanGraphs.

But it also moved Detroit past the tax threshold ($244 million) for the 2026 season. The Tigers are now projected to pay a tax bill if they end the year with a payroll above the threshold.

For a chance to win the American League Central division for the first time since 2014, the Tigers should be willing to eat a tax bill. They are rightfully the division favorites this preseason.

However, I’m not convinced that the front office will maintain this mindset if the Tigers get off to a slower start. I could see them being sellers at the deadline if they underperform, which would include getting something for Skubal in the final year of his deal.

Of course, the Tigers could avoid this nightmare scenario by simply winning. But it’s something to keep in mind, especially after they collapsed in the back half of the 2025 season, coughing up a 15.5-game lead to lose the AL Central to the Cleveland Guardians.

Detroit’s lineup was the biggest culprit for the meltdown, as its wRC+ dropped by 14 points in the second half of the season. The Tigers are mostly running it back on offense in 2026.

I’m also skeptical of Detroit’s bullpen, which ranked 27th with an 11.3 K-BB%. Signing 38-year-old Kenley Jansen to be the closer doesn’t help assuage those concerns.

Put it all together, and the Tigers are deserving favorites in a weak division. But there are enough paths for things to go wrong, as demonstrated in the second half of the 2025 campaign.

Tigers Win Total History

YearWin TotalWinsResult202583.587Over202481.586Over202369.578Over202278.566Under202169.577Over202020.523Over201968.547Under20186764Under201782.564Under201681.586Over201583.574Under20149090Push201392.593Over201292.588Under201184.595Over20108081Over200980.586Over200893.574Under200787.588Over20067795Over200578.571Under20046772Over20036443Under200272.555Under200177.566Under200077.579Over

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