SARASOTA, Fla. — Shane Baz woke up Wednesday morning with a buzz he hadn’t felt all winter. He’s a competitor, and that competitor knew he would face live batters for the first time since the end of last season.
“I woke up, bounced out of bed,” Baz said. “I was ready to go.”
Then his fastball fired out of his hand as he faced Pete Alonso, Jeremiah Jackson, Luis Vázquez and Dylan Beavers. The Orioles need Baz to harness that energy this season. They need Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers and more to channel their desire to prove themselves, and, in doing so, prove president of baseball operations Mike Elias right.
There are many ifs around this pitching staff, extending beyond the rotational focus and into the bullpen. If Baz takes the next step, then … if Bradish is healthy for the full season, then … if Rogers maintains all the progress he made in a magical 2025 campaign … and so on.
Last year, the coin flips largely fell on the wrong half, with injuries and underperformances spelling a dismal start to the season from which the Orioles never recovered. Can those ifs turn the right way this year?
Either way, even if the Orioles sign or trade for another starting pitcher, the length of the season and the seemingly unavoidable nature of pitching injuries mean every one of the pitchers in the mix for a rotation spot has an important role to play.
Baz is the newcomer, the starter whose upside has been lauded as sky-high. When Baltimore acquired him, he was not advertised as an ace. Such a label doesn’t mean anything to Baz anyway.
Despite a winter-long ambition to land a front-line pitcher, Elias is comfortable with this stable of pitchers (although he hasn’t closed the door on further additions).
That means the Orioles will go only as far as this group takes them. And, on the first day of spring training, these starters said the right things. They’re speaking confidently and boldly. They’re taking ownership of their role.
Everything else will unfold in the long, hot summer.
“I feel like I can really help,” Baz said. “I don’t care about the accolades and being the whatever, the ace or whatever. I feel like I can do a really good job of making my starts and giving us a chance every five days, and that’s kind of my goal. For myself, I agree. I hold myself to a really high standard, and I think I can really help here.”
If — there’s that word again — the Orioles get that on a regular basis from their rotation, this may well work out. After all, there are no sure bets when pitching is involved. When asked whether the injury risk played a role in the front office’s evaluation of pitching additions, Elias said there is a risk-reward matrix that is necessary to navigate.
The starters in the clubhouse in Sarasota speak highly of a group that includes Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Trevor Rogers, Tyler Wells, Zach Eflin and Dean Kremer, seen here pitching during a simulated game Wednesday. (Jerry Jackson/The Banner)
The Orioles made right-hander Corbin Burnes a competitive offer after the 2024 season, for instance. Burnes then suffered an elbow injury and required Tommy John surgery. In the short term, it’s possible the Orioles feel relieved a major pitching acquisition of that sort in Baltimore didn’t suffer the same fate.
But that risk can’t debilitate the player acquisition process, or there would be little to no reward. Last year, the Orioles signed one-year deals with Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano. Those short contracts lower the overhead in terms of salary figures but limit the quality of pitcher coming in. Neither Morton nor Sugano worked out, although Sugano’s ability to start 30 games helped get Baltimore through a losing season.
The healthy class of starters on the first day of spring training is a positive sign, but there’s no guarantee that will last — and that would be the case if Baltimore signed a true ace, too.
Internally, however, the starters in the clubhouse at the Ed Smith Stadium complex speak highly of a group that features, among others, Bradish, Baz, Rogers, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and Zach Eflin.
“You look at the five guys we have, I’m like, man, I’d put this starting rotation up against anybody in the league and we’re going to have success,” Rogers said. “Obviously, if we did do that [add another front-line starter], it would make this team even better, but the guys we have now are some of the best in baseball by far.”
Trevor Rogers, who had a 1.81 ERA in 109 2/3 innings last season, practices pickoff attempts on Wednesday. (Jerry Jackson/The Banner)
Added Baz: “I think it could be as good as any rotation in the game. I’m not going to put a ceiling on it because the talent is pretty ridiculous.”
One would hope they have confidence in themselves, so the proclamations don’t necessarily assuage all the concerns around the pitching staff. FanGraphs’ Depth Charts consider the Orioles pitching staff middle of the road: a projected 14.4 WAR, the lowest in the American League East.
Some of that is weighed into the ifs that hang over this staff.
Rogers broke out last year with a 1.81 ERA in 109 2/3 innings, but there’s the question of whether he can maintain that level of dominance (“I think the sharpness he showed last year is who he is,” Elias said). Bradish threw only 71 1/3 innings in 2024 and 2025 due to elbow surgery and will be expected to carry a much larger load. Baz has the “stuff” that makes talent evaluators drool but hasn’t always put it together.
The flip side is that their promise isn’t for a lack of evidence. They have all done well at the highest level, even if ifs abound.
“I think a lot of people overlook what all of us as a pitching staff have accomplished over the course of our careers,” said Wells, who is ramping up this spring as a starter. “I think it breeds the competition between us all, but at the same time we all know we’re very capable of success. And I think that shift in mentality of, stop worrying about what people think we can’t accomplish and focus on what we have accomplished and what we can accomplish.
“Pete [Alonso] has said it many times. There is, in a sense, a new Oriole Way, and a lot of that is looking into the future and being very aware of what we’re capable of and really homing in on that. I think that’s the direction we want to go.”
The Orioles may well add another arm to the equation, and perhaps that will help solidify the pitching staff. But it’s a staff for a reason. Even with an ace, there are four others on whom the club must rely for strong performances.
And, for as poorly as last season went, perhaps the ifs will shine more favorably on Baltimore this year. There is one way to find out.