Spring Training is around the corner and if you had to sum up the Philadelphia Phillies offseason in one word, it would be beige.
It wasn’t a disaster for the Phillies but it definitely wasn’t a masterpiece either. The offseason just sat there like a wall you kept meaning to repaint but never did.
Everyone keeps trying to squint at the roster and convince themselves they see a plan forming before the August 3 trade deadline, but right now it feels more like staring at an ink blot and arguing whether that smudge is a contender or a team begging for help.
Needless to say, the Phillies‘ offseason could have gone a lot better.
Without question, starting pitching has been the backbone of the Philadelphia Phillies for two straight seasons and honestly, it’s not even up for debate.
Since the start of the 2024 season, the Phillies own a .590 winning percentage, tied for the best mark in baseball, and the rotation has driven nearly all of it.
Over that stretch, they rank first in the National League in ERA, first in opponents’ OPS, and second in strikeouts.
When this team wins, it’s usually because the starters dictate the game early and force everything else into place. Heading into 2026, though, the rotation feels different because it is different.
Ranger Suárez is gone and for the first time in a while, there are real, uncomfortable questions at the back end of the rotation instead of just blind optimism. The good news is those questions don’t start at the top.
Cristopher Sanchez will be the Phillies starter Opening Day
There’s no ambiguity here anymore. Cristopher Sánchez enters 2026 as the Phillies’ ace and the Opening Day starter.
Last season he went 13–5 with a 2.50 ERA, led the league in bWAR, and cleared 200 innings for the first time. That wasn’t a fluke run or a hot stretch. It was a full season of dominance built on command, pitchability, and a changeup that absolutely ruins right-handed hitters.
Since 2023, hitters have batted .169 against that changeup. Sánchez leaned into it even more last year, bumped the usage, and somehow got better. Velocity went up across the board, not down.
That’s how aces are born. He’s no longer “emerging.” He’s established and if everything clicks again, he’s a legitimate Cy Young candidate.
Jesús Luzardo: All or Nothing
With Suárez gone, Jesús Luzardo becomes the hinge point of the rotation.
His 2025 season was a roller coaster. At his best, he looked like a front-line starter. Over his first 11 starts, he posted a 2.15 ERA. Over his final 11, he had a 2.84 ERA and a sub-3 FIP. In between, though, was a brutal 10-start stretch where he owned the worst ERA in baseball.
That’s the Luzardo experience in a nutshell.
The Phillies stuck with him, and the payoff came in October. His NLDS Game 2 start against the Dodgers was calm, controlled, and exactly what you want from a pitcher you’re counting on long term.
Now he’s entering a contract year. He led the team in wins and starts last season. If he wants the bag, consistency is the price of admission.
See you soon, Zack Wheeler…?
This is where things get uncomfortable. Zack Wheeler is 36 soon. He’s coming off thoracic outlet surgery. He’s throwing, but nobody is pretending there are guarantees here.
If Wheeler is ready for Opening Day and gives the Phillies 160–170 innings of solid work, that’s a win. You take a mid-3 ERA and you don’t complain. Anything more than that is gravy. The margin for error is thin, and the Phillies know it. Wheeler’s health could be the difference between a smooth season and scrambling by June.
The Aaron Nola Revenge Tour Needs to Happen
Aaron Nola’s 2025 season was a mess. Injuries, inconsistency, bad stretches that buried the team early in games. That said, the last month mattered. He finished stronger, earned a postseason start, and reminded everyone that the baseline version of Nola is still useful.
He’s not an ace anymore but really, he doesn’t need to be. If the Phillies get a 3.25–3.79 ERA from Nola as a fourth starter, that’s perfectly acceptable.
Anything beyond that is a bonus.
Taijuan Walker vs. Andrew Painter – Hilarious to Write.
If Wheeler is available, the fifth spot comes down to Taijuan Walker versus Andrew Painter and the upside gap between those two could not be wider.
Walker is what he is at this point. A veteran on an expiring deal who has struggled mightily against good teams and profiles better in relief than as a starter. He showed that last year. The problem is his contract and Wheeler’s uncertainty make moving him difficult.
Painter, meanwhile, is the wild card. The stuff is undeniable. The upside is enormous but command is still an issue, and it showed at Triple-A.
Falling behind in counts kills Andrew Painter and that’s not really something you can paper over in the majors, which is really my main concern from the “chosen one” who this organization has told us, time and time again, will be a top rotation arm when ready.
Well, now is the time. Spring Training will matter a lot. If Painter proves he can get ahead early, he’s the better option. If not, the Phillies will have to decide how much risk they’re willing to take.
Could you imagine seeing Taijuan Walker as the fifth starter? That can’t happen (again) right? What a disaster that would be.
Who else…?
Well no one, really. Seth Johnson, Alan Rangel… maybe a few AA arms who could push with strong Springs? Veteran free agents are still out there, but a big move feels unlikely unless Walker is dealt and money is shed.
The Phillies’ rotation is still a strength. It just isn’t bulletproof anymore.
Justin Crawford, Adolis García, Brandon Marsh
I hate it.
Justin Crawford is a question mark. The organization wants him to grab center field and never give it back. The problem is that he’s never played at the MLB-level and the Phillies refused to bring him up in 2025, so no one has any idea if that’s a possibility or not.
To the left, you have Brandon Marsh, who is a nice guy to have but clearly is not an everyday player. He will platoon with Otto Kemp, who we’ll touch on below.
As for Adolis Garcia, he’s a significant upgrade defensively but I refuse to ignore the fact that the Philadelphia Phillies have completely botched the handling of Nick Castellanos, who’s still on the roster, after months of pretty much everyone in the Phillies organization saying they want to trade or straight-up cut him before Spring Training.
Overall, it’s just not an outfield that anyone should be confident about at this point in time. Too much “prove it” and not enough results for a team that’s supposed to be chasing a World Series.
They did bring back Kyle Schwarber, and while handing a five year deal to a 33 year old is the type of move that usually ends in long sighs, what exactly was the alternative after he mashed baseballs into orbit for an entire season. Sometimes you pay the man and deal with tomorrow when tomorrow arrives.
J.T. Realmuto is back as well, which is both comforting and necessary because the other internal options were not exactly screaming everyday solution. Stability matters, even if the miles are starting to show.
The backdrop to all of this is the division. The New York Mets loaded up, the Atlanta Braves exist in that annoying space where you never feel comfortable counting them out, and the Phillies mostly ran it back. Running it back can work, but doing it year after year after year makes you wonder when the surprise is supposed to kick in.
Hovering over everything is Bryce Harper, who has now heard whispers about not being elite anymore, which is a dangerous game to play with someone who has made a career out of taking things personally. Maybe he shrugs it off or maybe he turns into a cartoon villain and launches 45 baseballs into the seats. If chaos is on the menu, Philadelphia is usually happy to order it.
The Phillies are talented, expensive, and built to win right now.
I know the offseason wasn’t great but you can’t deny that the top of the roster is championship caliber. The questions sit on the margins, the fifth starter, the last bench spot, the final bullpen arms. Those are good problems to have when you’re trying to play deep into October again.
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